643
FXUS63 KGID 270947
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
447 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE COMPLETELY CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT AND SWITCHES WINDS AROUND TO THE NW AND
USHERS IN SOME DRIER AIR.
- THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE SUGGESTS RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.50" FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 0.75" ALONG HWY 81.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH PEAK NWRLY GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH ON TUESDAY, AND 25-30
MPH ON WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- DRY, QUIET, AND SEASONABLY COOL FOR TRICK-OR-TREATERS, THEN
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
BROKEN RECORD OF COOL, CLOUDY, AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY. ORGANIZED RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT A HEAVY MIST (ESP. THIS
MORNING) WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS DAMP. WINDS WILL BECOME A
BIT BREEZIER AND MORE S THAN SE, BUT THE THICK CLOUDS WILL STILL
KEEP HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW.
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
PATTERN TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BOTH HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SO POPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE
60-80% RANGE AREA WIDE. THE BRUNT OF THE QPF LOOKS TO COME IN
ABOUT A 12HR PERIOD FROM 03Z TO 15Z TUESDAY. THERE'S JUST ENOUGH
MUCAPE TO SUGGEST A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, ESP. EARLIER ON IN THE "EVENT" TO THE W OF THE TRI-
CITIES...BUT OVERALL THINK THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
FORMAL INCLUSION INTO THE GRIDS. 00Z EPS ENSEMBLE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN IN 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 0.10" TO 0.50" AREA WIDE...AND STILL THINK HWY 81 CORRIDOR
COULD OVERACHIEVE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 0.75".
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS IT'LL BECOME INCREASINGLY
BREEZY/WINDY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD NW GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON. WHILE SOME DRIER AIR WILL
CERTAINLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE W/WN FLOW (AND FINALLY SCOUR
OUT THE STRATUS!), MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP RHS ABOVE CRITICAL
CRITERIA (20%) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AREAS SW OF THE TRI-
CITIES COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY GET CLOSE TO NEAR CRITICAL
CRITERIA OF 25%. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE HWO AS THINK THE COMBINATION OF PRECEDING
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCU WITHIN THE DEEP COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD KEEP THINGS LARGELY IN CHECK. WED WILL
ALSO REMAIN WITHIN COOL, BREEZY NW FLOW THANKS TO DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THAT WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD. BOTH DAYS SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND 50 DEG, BUT
IT'LL ONLY FEEL LIKE 40S THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CHILLY BREEZE.
UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO NWRLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE, BUT
AT LEAST IT LOOKS DRY AND NOT OVERLY BREEZY FOR TRICK-OR-
TREATERS. WORTH NOTING THAT WE SHOULD SEE A DEFINITIVE END TO
THE GROWING SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
WINDS DIE OFF AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F.
THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE END TO ANY MENTIONS OF FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING
HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST A MODEST BUMP IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND,
MOST LIKELY FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS
TO FAVOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED 50S-60S FOR HIGHS
(PERHAPS NEAR 70F FAR SW?) AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THIS IS
ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE QUICKENING PACE OF FALLING
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THAT'S TYPICAL OF MID/LATE FALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRIMARILY IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
MUCH OF THE TIME BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND MIDDAY. SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. VSBYS ARE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AND LIFR
VSBYS...SHOULD BE MORE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE AND LOWEST FROM
AROUND 09Z TO 15Z. MAINLY MVFR TO VFR VSBYS EXPECTED LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SRLY
COMPONENT TODAY, OR MORE SE TO SSE. SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
8-12KT, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17KT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS CIGS ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO, OR BELOW, IFR THRESHOLDS AROUND SUNSET. HAVE
PROB30S STARTING 23Z-00Z, THEN PREVAILING -SHRA AROUND 02Z-03Z.
CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE, OR TWO, OF THUNDER...BUT CHANCES NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND START TO VEER THE WINDS.
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE TERMINALS LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND
THIS VALID TAF PERIOD AROUND 06Z-08Z IN WHICH WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NW AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS THE STUBBORN STRATUS IS FINALLY
SCOURED OUT. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY/WINDY LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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