363
FXUS63 KGID 272109
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
409 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES (80 PERCENT). MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOWING HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF 0.10" OR MORE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME TOTALS MORE IN THE
0.25-0.5" RANGE.
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF HWY 281 WILL BE SLOW TO SEE
PRECIP CHANCES END TUE-TUE NIGHT...AND WILL HOLD ONTO MORE
CLOUD COVER LONGER. WESTERN AREAS WILL FINALLY SEE MORE SUN AS
THE DAY PASSES ON TUESDAY.
- ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, USHERING IN GUSTY
NW WINDS FOR TUESDAY. GUSTS NEAR 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
- ONCE PRECIP CHANCES END TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
CURRENTLY...
THE DREARY CONDITIONS FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAVE LINGERED ON
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...BUT MORE SUNSHINE IS ON
THE WAY. LOOKING IN THE UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON....THE AREA
SITS UNDER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SET UP ON THE SE SIDE OF A
TROUGH AXIS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES..EXTENDING FROM
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN ALBERTA. OFF TO OUR
EAST, AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPIN OVER THE KY/TN BORDER
AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF ME. BEING SET UP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM
THIS PAST WEEKEND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND THE ONE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...HAVEN'T HAD MUCH OF A CHANCE TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH CEILINGS TODAY RIGHT AROUND/EITHER
SIDE OF 1K FT...AND PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE HAVE CONTINUED
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER A GOOD CHUCK OF THE
CONUS TO OUR EAST, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH
WESTERN NE UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS SSERLY,
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. NO BIG TEMP
SURPRISES WITH THE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS ON TRACK
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH WE'VE HAD OFF-AND-ON LIGHT DRIZZLE AROUND TODAY, BETTER
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE ON THEIR WAY. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUING PUSHING EAST OUT ONTO AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...SPREADING THOSE CHANCES ACROSS THEN ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS HAVE THE OVERALL
BEST/WIDESPREAD CHANCES ROUGHLY IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME...AND
THOUGH NOT EXPECTING HIGH-END AMOUNTS, ENSEMBLES HAVE PRETTY
HIGH PROBABILITIES (80+ PERCENT) OF AT LEAST 0.10 INCH OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SWATH OF
AMOUNTS MORE IN THE 0.25-0.5 INCH RANGE OCCURS, CONFIDENCE IN
EXACTLY THERE THAT LINES UP IS NOT HIGH. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD CLIP FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, BUT MOST MODELS KEEP WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE
IS TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST, SO THERE IS NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF HWY
281...WHICH WILL HAVE LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED
LOW, DIGGING SSE THROUGH THE AREA. BECAUSE IT'S TAKING MORE OF A
SOUTHERN TRACK VS EASTERLY...THE INCREASED LIFT DOESN'T QUITE
PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO TOTALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
ARE SOME MODELS THAT DO SHOW IT PUSHING FAR ENOUGH...ALLOWING
THINGS TO TOTALLY DRY OUT...THUS THE LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN LOW AROUND 20-25 PERCENT.
ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND PRECIP CHANCES IS
A STRONG COLD FRONT...WITH MODEL TIMING GENERALLY SHOWING THE
FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT,
THEN HAVING CLEARED ALL BUT EXTREME ESE PORTION BY 12Z TUESDAY.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING NOTABLE CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES, THIS FRONT
WILL USHER IN GUSTY NW WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE INITIAL PASSAGE
OVER THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING AFTER SUNRISE
MORE SOLID GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF
35-40 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FINALLY, AFTER DAYS OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS, SOME SUN WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...MOST FAVORED IN THE WEST VS THE EAST...BUT THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CU TO REDEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN
DOES START PEEKING OUT MORE. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS IS MEDIUM,
AS HOW CLOUD COVER EVOLVES WILL PLAY A ROLE...CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS AREA AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 50S. DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...SO WILL BE
WATCHING HOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EVOLVE CLOSELY, AS IT
WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A BUMP DOWN IN DEWPOINTS AND/OR BUMP UP IN
TEMPS TO BRING AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH THE GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 30 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BY THE TIME 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING ROLLS AROUND, HAVE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END...WITH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY REMAINING DRY. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BUILDING IN ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY, AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CROSSING MAINLY TO OUR NNE, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSHES
OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE 60S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BRING SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, THANKS TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THOSE WHO
HAVEN'T HAD MUCH FOR FROST/FREEZING TEMPS YET.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THAT EXISTS FOR THE
FINAL COUPLE OF HOURS. PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL STRATUS STICKING
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY HAVE CEILINGS REMAINING BELOW
1K FT, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-1500 FT THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE JUST
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE CEILINGS THAT MUCH AT THIS POINT. DO
HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AFTER THE RAIN DEPARTS EARLY TUE.
MORNING. THIS EVENING ON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF MAIN IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS BEING
ROUGHLY 01Z-09Z. BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO PUSH EAST BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE A SFC
COLD FRONT, SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TO MORE WESTERLY, THEN NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY,
SPEEDS RAMP UP...GUSTS NEAR 30-35 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
MID-LATE MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page