334
FXUS63 KGID 281725
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SHOWERS GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF HWY 281 THIS MORNING,
BUT THEY MAY LINGER LONGER ALONG AND E OF HWY 81.
- STRONG NWRLY WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER
AIR AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE, AT LEAST FOR
THE W HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 20S LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL FOR HALLOWEEN, BUT DRY AND
NOT TOO BREEZY.
- FORECAST AFTER TONIGHT REMAINS DRY, THOUGH WILL NEED TO
MONITOR A DISTURBANCE THIS WEEKEND FOR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, AS EXPECTED, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM FROM AROUND
COLUMBUS/YORK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS HAYS AND RUSSELL AND IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE. DRIER AIR
FILTERING ON INCREASING STRONG NWRLY WIND GUSTS SHOULD END THE
SHOWERS FROM W TO E THIS MORNING - PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT
LONGER INTO THE DAY ALONG AND E OF HWY 81. EVEN SO, ANY RAIN
THAT DOES LINGER THIS LONG WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
BY FAR, THE GREATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT TODAY WILL BE
STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH. THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS, AND DESPITE BEING POST-FRONTAL,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HOWEVER, ANY SEMBLANCE OF "WARMTH"
PROVIDED BY THE NEWLY DISCOVERED SUN WILL BE OFFSET BY THE
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG, TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER ISN'T A REAL HIGH CONCERN AT THIS TIME AS THE
COMBINATION OF THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND MORE NWRLY SFC
COMPONENT TO THE WIND VS. WRLY WILL KEEP RHS AROUND 30 PERCENT,
OR HIGHER, AREA WIDE.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN MOVE IN AND WEAKEN THE WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE FALL SEASON AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DEFINITIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON
FOR THE REMAINING AREAS THAT HAVE ONLY FLIRTED WITH FREEZING
THUS FAR THIS FALL. AFTER ALL, IT IS ALMOST NOVEMBER...AND AT
LEAST THIS SHOULD GET RID OF SOME BUGS! WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR TRICK-OR-TREATERS.
NW UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND
MAY ACTUALLY FEATURE A COUPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES FROM TIME
TO TIME. ONE PARTICULAR DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE
ON THE STRONGER SIDE IN TERMS OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRENGTH OF JET STREAK. HOWEVER, DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING,
SO THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY, FOR NOW. WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF
SOME SPRINKLES OR LOW-END POPS WILL ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADDED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. SHOULD SEE A MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN
RISING HEIGHTS/UPPER RIDGING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT, HAVE NOTICED A DISTINCT NORTHWARD TREND IN THE CORE OF A
NEARLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATION HEIGHT ANOMALY IN RECENT EPS AND
AIFS ENSEMBLE RUNS. AS SUCH, MEAN HIGH TEMPS FOR THE TRI-CITIES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK HAVE RISEN FROM NEAR 60 TO THE MID
60S, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREAS COULD REACH
THE 70S AGAIN. OUTSIDE OF THE VERY LOW CHANCE FOR MOISTURE TO
WATCH FOR ON SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE QUITE LIMITED ON MOISTURE
CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...AS THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AND LOWER CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. WINDS REMAIN A
CONCERN, MAINLY DUE TO SPEED...AS LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NNWRLY WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH THOSE SPEEDS, MODELS STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, SO
DID INSERT THAT MENTION FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ADP
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