638
FXUS63 KGID 282048
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
WSW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FORECAST
TONIGHT ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS DRY.
- THE GUSTY NNW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED OVER AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHTER WINDS, LITTLE
CLOUD COVER, AND A LINGERING COOLER AIRMASS LOOKS TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR COUNTIES
WHO HAVE YET TO HAVE NOTABLE FROST OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF NON-STOP LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, TODAY HAS BROUGHT A WELCOME RETURN OF SOME
SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SWATH OF RAIN HAVING PUSHED EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SEEING SO
CU OVER WESTERN NE/KS AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP ON RADAR,
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES COULD CREEP
INTO WEST-SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO STEEPENED LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH
SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AT THE
SURFACE, THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS ALSO PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA,
DRAPED FROM CENTRAL MN SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN TX. AS EXPECTED,
NNW WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY...GUSTS HAVE MAINLY REACHED THE
30-35 MPH RANGE, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A HANDFUL AS HIGH AS 40-45
MPH. IF ANYTHING, TEMPS WILL EXCEED EXPECTATIONS BY A FEW
DEGREES IN LOCATIONS THAT HAD A BIT MORE SUN...MOST WILL TOP OUT
IN THE MID 50S, BUT A FEW SPOTS (MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KS)
WILL END UP CLOSER TO 60.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MODELS TODAY CONTINUE TO SHOW
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THIS ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS SPLITTING OFF
AND CONTINUING TO PUSH SSE WITH TIME, DEEPENING INTO A MORE
CLOSED OFF ARE OF LOW PRESSURE. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, MODELS
SHOW THAT LOW HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE AR/TN/MS BORDER AREA. THE
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HERE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE
THOSE LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SYSTEM STAYING JUST
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP US DRY. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND/WIND GUSTS
A TOUCH, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MODELS SHOWING A PRETTY STOUT CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AS THAT MID-UPPER LOW DEEPENS TO OUR SSE...NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION SOME OF THAT COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN CORRIDOR JUST OFF TO OUR EAST, BUT FOR
AREAS EAST OF HWY 281, GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ONCE WE HAVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
CU ACROSS OUR AREA AND TO THE WEST TO DIMINISH, LEAVING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...EASTERN AREAS WILL STILL BE HANGING ON
TO MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
ITSELF. DIDN'T MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT...RIGHT AROUND 30 IN THE WEST, TO MID-UPPER 30S FURTHER
ESE.
WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES GO MID-WEEK ON INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT IT'S NOT A TOTAL SLAM
DUNK. NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES, STILL NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER WAY FOR HIGHS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WED-WED
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...EASTERN AREAS MAY STILL BE HANGING ONTO A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. STILL SOMEWHAT
IMPACTED BY THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO OUR SE, MODELS KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NNW WINDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...BUT SPEEDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...FORECAST HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 50S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DIMINISHED WINDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THAT
SURFACE HIGH, LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND THE COOL AIRMASS LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY END (FINALLY) THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE REMAINING
COUNTIES THAT HAD YET TO GET NOTABLE FROST OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEING IN VARIOUS DEGREES OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASS
BY. GENERAL TIMING BETWEEN MODELS OF THESE DISTURBANCES ISN'T
TOO BAD...ONE COMING LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE OTHER
LATE DAY FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING...BUT HARD TO HAVE A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS AT THIS POINT. MODELS DO AGREE
THAT THE BRUNT/BETTER LIFT FROM THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS OFF
TO THE NNE OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES THERE AS WELL...THE MAIN IMPACT TO US WOULD BE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTS. CURRENTLY NOT SEEING
THESE FRONTS TO PRODUCE NOTABLE INCREASES IN NWRLY WINDS.
THURSDAY HIGHS LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT AND THEN THE ONCE THAT PASSES THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY...HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE A TOUCH COOLER, RIGHT
AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO MID-50S SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY WILL HELP BRING A BUMP
UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH MID 60S-RIGHT NEAR 70 CURRENTLY
FORECAST...DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S MON-TUE AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PASSING TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...AS THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AND LOWER CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. WINDS REMAIN A
CONCERN, MAINLY DUE TO SPEED...AS LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NNWRLY WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH THOSE SPEEDS, MODELS STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL LLWS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, SO
DID INSERT THAT MENTION FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page