238
FXUS63 KGID 291816
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND BLUSTERY AGAIN TODAY, THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS THAT HAVE YET TO
EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE THIS FALL.
- QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY.
- GENERAL PATTERN FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
NW WINDS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SE THROUGH
THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FLIRTING WITH THE FAR E ZONES YET THIS MORNING,
BUT ANY DEEP MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WELL E/SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN WEATHER IMPACT TODAY WILL BE CONTINUED
STRONG NW WINDS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS, ESP. THIS MORNING. UEX
VAD IS SAMPLING VERY STRONG WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND (IN EXCESS OF 60KT), BUT FORTUNATELY, WE'RE NOT
GETTING THAT TRANSFERED ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. NONETHELESS,
GOING TO REMAIN BREEZY/WINDY UNTIL THIS LOW LEVEL JET STREAK
SHIFTS E THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH THIS MORNING,
TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
DECR FURTHER TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS,
COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FINALLY
LEND TO A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT/HARD FREEZE FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LATEST NBM PROBS ARE
ESSENTIALLY NEAR 100% FOR LOWS AT OR BELOW 32F FOR ALL BUT
MITCHELL CO IN KS (STILL QUITE HIGH AT 70-80%)...AND PROBS ARE
50-100% (AGAIN LOWEST FROM AROUND BELOIT TO HEBRON) FOR LOWS AT
OR BELOW 28F, WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSIDERED A "HARD FREEZE" OR
DEFINITE END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH
FOR TONIGHT-THURSDAY AM, AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINE FOR THE SEASON.
RELATIVELY PLEASANT LATE FALL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AMIDST
SEASONABLY LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT SUNSHINE. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD STILL BE DECENT
CONDITIONS FOR TRICK-OR-TREATERS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE 50S
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND RELATIVELY LIGHT W/NW WINDS.
MODELS GRADUALLY CARVE OUT A DECENT TROUGH OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON
DETAILS IS STILL LACKING. REGARDLESS ON EXACT TIMING AND DEPTH,
APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL REALLY BE LACKING MOISTURE. AS SUCH, 00Z
EPS STILL KEEPS PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE MOISTURE AROUND
10-20%, OR LESS, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT'S
WORTH NOTING THAT HIGHER 30-60% PROBS ARE SANDWICHED JUST AROUND
US TO BOTH THE N/NE AND S/SE. OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS DRY,
BUT THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF AT
LEAST LOW POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. EVEN SO, IMPACTS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AS PROBS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS >0.10" ARE ESSENTIALLY
ZERO. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD SATURDAY, SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST. GOOD
NEWS IS THAT WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING EXPANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FORCES THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL N/NE OF THE AREA FOR NEARLY ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ESP ON OVERNIGHT LOWS, AS LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEDIANS SUGGEST DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S (PROBABLY SOME
LOWER 70S IN FAVORED WARMER SW ZONES) AND LOWS LARGELY ABOVE
FREEZING. OVERALL, THE FIRST 7-10 DAYS OF NOVEMBER LOOK TO BE
QUITE PLEASANT BY LATE FALL STANDARDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
THIS IS A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY PERIOD,
WITH THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OF NOTE CONSISTING OF A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH MAINLY THIS EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. THAT LEAVES WINDS AS THE ONLY REAL ISSUE (INCLUDING
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY) BUT
THE STRONGEST SPEEDS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AWAY THESE
FIRST FEW HOURS.
- WIND DETAILS:
RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THESE FIRST FEW HOURS, MODERATELY-BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST (SUSTAINED SPEEDS TYPICALLY
15-18KT/GUSTS AROUND 25KT). HOWEVER, THESE SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN, AND BY 23Z EVEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10KT.
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY DAYTIME, A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT/VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS
(MAINLY 5KT OR LESS). FINALLY, DURING THE FINAL FEW-TO-SEVERAL
HOURS OF THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BECOME A
BIT STEADIER FROM THE WEST 14-16Z THEN TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
BY 17-18Z WITH GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ041-047>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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