123
FXUS63 KGID 292138
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
438 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT MIDNIGHT-10 AM THURSDAY (OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT) FOR ALL 25 COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA) STILL
DEEMED "ELIGIBLE" FOR FREEZE WARNINGS (ALL EXCEPT A FEW FAR
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES). NOTE: THIS IS ALMOST SURELY OUR
FINAL FREEZE/FROST PRODUCT OF THE 2025 FALL SEASON.
- ALTHOUGH A FEW ROGUE SPRINKLES PROBABLY CANNOT BE 100% RULED
OUT THURS DAYTIME AND/OR FRI NIGHT, OUR ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST
REMAINS "OFFICIALLY DRY" AT THIS TIME (ACTUALLY VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WE AVOID TRULY MEASURABLE PRECIP).
- ALTHOUGH WINDS FOR THURSDAY HAVE TRENDED UP A BIT (AND THERE
WILL BE A FEW SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAYS), OVERALL THIS NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR TO FEATURE ANY "HIGH-END" WINDS, AND THUS NO
PARTICULARLY-CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAYS.
- NOT ONLY IS THE 7-DAY FORECAST VOID OF ANY APPARENT HAZARDOUS
WEATHER, BUT TEMPERATURE-WISE IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER BENIGN BY
VERY LATE OCT-EARLY NOV STANDARDS, WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S-60S (WARMEST SUN-WED, WHEN EVEN LOWS
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ABOVE FREEZING).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, CHANGES, UNCERTAINTIES:
- IT'S THIS FORECASTER'S DAY ON THE 7-DAY FORECAST DESK IN A
WHILE, AND THE OVERALL FIRST IMPRESSION IS CLEARLY: WOW, WHAT
AN OVERALL-"QUIET" STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!
- CERTAINLY NO "MAJOR" CHANGES APPARENT BETWEEN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE AND THE PREVIOUS (EARLY-AM) ONE, BUT ON RELATIVELY
MINOR NOTES:
1) NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY DAYTIME HAVE TRENDED
UP ABOUT 5 MPH (NOW CALLING FOR GUSTS AT LEAST 20-25 MPH MOST
AREAS BEHIND A PASSING FRONT).
2) HIGH TEMPS FOR ESPECIALLY SAT-SUN HAVE TRENDED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES (SAT LIKELY THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY), BUT CONVERSELY
HIGHS HAVE TRENDED UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MON-WED (AND PERHAPS
NOT ENOUGH SO?).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 4 PM:
CERTAINLY NOTHING IN THE WAY OF TRUE SURPRISES TODAY, ALTHOUGH
IF ANYTHING IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY BACK/WESTERN EDGES
OF A LOWER STRATUS DECK OVER EASTERN NE BROUGHT A BIT MORE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES
ALONG HWY 81. OTHERWISE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA SAW
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WITH A VEIL OF RELATIVELY THIN HIGH CIRRUS
JUST STARTING TO SPILL IN OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME.
DESPITE THE SUN, IT WASN'T EXACTLY A "PLEASANT" DAY (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH STILL-MODERATELY STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS YIELDING GUSTS COMMONLY 25-35 MPH. HOWEVER, AS
THE AFTERNOON HAS WORN ON, THESE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO BACK DOWN
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT 53-57 FOR MOST OF OUR CWA.
ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM
AN EXPANSIVE/LARGE- SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S....ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE TN/AL BORDER.
MEANWHILE, OUR AREA IS BEING INFLUENCE BY AN AREA OF BENIGN
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
EASTERN TROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING
OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS.
- TONIGHT:
BY FAR THE MAIN STORY IS WHAT SHOULD BE OUR FIRST NIGHT OF TRULY
WIDESPREAD, SUB-FREEZING TEMPS OF THE FALL SEASON FOR MOST ALL
(NOT JUST SOME) OF OUR CWA. WINDS WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BY
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER 5 MPH FROM VARYING
DIRECTIONS WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. AS FOR CLOUD COVER, THE
ONLY POSSIBLE SLIGHT "WRENCH" TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE A FAIRLY THIN (BUT EXPANSIVE) VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS THAT WILL
WORK OVERHEAD FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS AT LEAST SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO
ARRIVING NORTH VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY THURS AM AS LIFT
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE STARTS MOVING IN. THAT
BEING SAID, DO NOT CURRENTLY THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A
MAJOR FACTOR IN AN EFFICIENT TEMPERATURE DROP, AND HAVE AIMED
LOWS TOWARD THE COLDER END OF MOST GUIDANCE (MOST OF THE CWA
FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT 25-30, AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 20S IN FAR
NORTH COUNTIES SUCH AS VALLEY).
THE FREEZE WATCH ISSUED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN "UPGRADED" TO A FREEZE WARNING, AND WE HAVE TACKED ON
FURNAS COUNTY IN ORDER TO BETTER COLLABORATE/MESH WITH THE
WARNING ISSUED TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NWS GOODLAND (THE OTHER
5 FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
WARNING WERE ALREADY DEEMED "INELIGIBLE" FOR ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS DUE TO ALREADY EXPERIENCING AT LEAST 1-2 FREEZES).
ON ONE FINAL NOTE, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST (PERHAPS NO
MORE THAN 20-40 MILES?) EAST OF THE EASTERN EDGES OF OUR CWA,
WE COULD HAVE A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT-THURS AM NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NE/KS. SOMETHING TO WATCH, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE FOR OUR CWA.
- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING UPPER WAVE WILL DIVE SLIGHTLY TO OUR
NORTH ALONG A TRACK INTO/TOWARD THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. WE
SHOULD ONLY SEE A SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES, AND MAYBE (BUT UNLIKELY) A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY IN/NEAR OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A "COLD" FRONT MAINLY
BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS THAT WILL BRING
AN UPTICK IN NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS (SUSTAINED AT LEAST 10-20
MPH/GUSTS AT LEAST 20-25 MPH)...AN INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THIS FRONT BEING MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN,
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY,
WITH HIGHS AIMED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 CWA-WIDE.
THURS NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES, WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO HOLD UP A BIT WARMER (MOST AREAS 30-35). NO
ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNING IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.
- FRIDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH THE "CORE" OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND
CHILLIEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO OUR NORTH-
THROUGH-EAST, WE WILL NONETHELESS RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF
COOLER TEMPS AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. PROBABLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE SPRINKLES (DARE WE
SAY SNOW FLURRIES?) ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT VAST MAJORITY
OF ANY VERY LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH/EAST.
TEMP-WISE, FRI HIGHS MOST AREAS LOW-MID 50S WHILE SATURDAY HIGHS
MIGHT NOT EVEN REACH 50 ALL AREAS (MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 50).
- SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
NO NEED TO ATTEMPT GREAT DETAIL HERE, WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING
A WARM-UP AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS INSIST THAT WE'LL EXPERIENCE
SEVERAL DAYS OF BENIGN/DRY WEATHER UNDER BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THE MAIN MINOR UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
MILD IT ACTUALLY GETS. AT THIS TIME, SUNDAY HIGHS ARE AIMED
MAINLY LOW 60S (STILL 10+ DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY), WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD MID TO EVEN UPPER 60S EXPECTED BY TUES-WED. IN
FACT, SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS LOW 70S POSSIBLE BY WED. IN
TANDEM WITH THE WARMER HIGHS, OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK TO
WARM...MAINLY DROPPING NO COLDER THAN MID-30S TO LOW-40S (ABOVE
FREEZING).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
THIS IS A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY PERIOD,
WITH THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OF NOTE CONSISTING OF A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH MAINLY THIS EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. THAT LEAVES WINDS AS THE ONLY REAL ISSUE (INCLUDING
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY) BUT
THE STRONGEST SPEEDS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AWAY THESE
FIRST FEW HOURS.
- WIND DETAILS:
RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THESE FIRST FEW HOURS, MODERATELY-BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST (SUSTAINED SPEEDS TYPICALLY
15-18KT/GUSTS AROUND 25KT). HOWEVER, THESE SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN, AND BY 23Z EVEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10KT.
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY DAYTIME, A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE LIGHT/VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS
(MAINLY 5KT OR LESS). FINALLY, DURING THE FINAL FEW-TO-SEVERAL
HOURS OF THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BECOME A
BIT STEADIER FROM THE WEST 14-16Z THEN TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
BY 17-18Z WITH GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
NEZ041-047>049-061>064-073>077-082>087.
KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page