731
FXUS63 KGID 200007
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
607 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AS RAIN LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE AREA. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED FURTHER
NORTH, AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 NOW EXPECTED TO SEE
SOME MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS
KANSAS (UP TO 1"), WITH POSSIBLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 (T-0.01").
- PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, LIGHT
BREEZES (MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 MPH), AND SUNNY SKIES.
- CHANGES COMING NEXT WEEK AS A MORE ACTIVE AND EVENTUALLY
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN OVERTAKES THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
FOG WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. BY LATE MORNING, MOST
LOCATIONS WERE FOG FREE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (WITH LOTS OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER) RETURNED TO THE REGION.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE SOME MODELS LIKE THE HRRR ARE INDICATING THE FOG WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH AS WHILE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT THEY ALSO LOOK TO HAVE
A WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE AND LESS FAVORABLE) COMPONENT. AS A
RESULT, INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG BOTH IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL AS IN THE HWO, BUT OPTED AGAINST A HEADLINE
THIS EARLY AS IT MAY END UP BEING MORE PATCHY THAN SOME MODELS
SUGGEST. WILL NEED TO PLAY THIS BY EAR AND SEE HOW THINGS END UP
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/EARLY NIGHT TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN BECOMES NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE, AFTER AT LEAST A BIT OF FOG TO START THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
CIRCULATING NEAR THE EASTERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN NEVADA BORDER.
WHILE WE HAVE HAD OUR EYES ON THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
MODELS ARE NOW SWINGING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FURTHER NORTH
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS MEANS THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD SET UP A BIT FURTHER NORTH, AND AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 ARE NOW FAVORED TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. WHILE THERE STILL WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE BAND
OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE TRI-
CITIES COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" (ABOUT A 50% CHANCE).
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WARM, AND ANY
PRECIP LOCALLY SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, HOWEVER, FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY NOT CLIMBING OUT OF
THE 40S.
AFTER A COOL/UNSETTLED END TO THE WEEK, A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO APPEAR ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA. BEHIND FRIDAYS
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW, RIDGING ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SLOWLY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS HEIGHTS RISE,
SO SHOULD TEMPERATURES, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. AS A BONUS, WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHT, WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES LIKELY LESS THAN 10
MPH.
AS WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM TOMORROW NIGHT/FRIDAY, THE TRAJECTORY
OF THE SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH IN BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/EC.
THEREFORE, WHILE OFFICIAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE (10-30%), THEY MAY ULTIMATELY BE TOO LOW AS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH ABOUT 50% OF THE MEMBERS OF THE GFS.
AGAIN, GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM, THE CHANCE OF ANY SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS LOW. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, AND MUCH COOLER AIR AND AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
AREA THANKSGIVING EVE AND BEYOND. STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW, BUT THINGS ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
POTENTIALLY COMPLEX AND IMPACTFUL NEXT 12-18 HOURS DUE TO LOW
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS.
EXPECT DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS EVENING. THE
WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOP AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT - THOUGH THE EXACT
EXTENT/COVERAGE AND SEVERITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SEEMS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT, AND
IT'S POSSIBLE THEY COULD FALL TO IFR LEVELS. SOME OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO KEEP THE WORST OF THIS FOG JUST S OF THE
TERMINALS - BUT AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION FULLY AT
THIS TIME.
SEPARATE FROM THE FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
BE A SOUTHWARD MOVING DECK OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND AT LEAST MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS OR PRIMARILY LOW CIGS...BUT EITHER
WAY, IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE 13Z TO 16Z OR
17Z TIME FRAME BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TO N TO NE
BEHIND THE FRONT THU AM AT 6-10KT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...THIES
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