527
FXUS63 KGID 141032
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
432 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -15 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA (COLDEST IN NEBRASKA).
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
- SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE ARE LOW (<15%) THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. IF ANYTHING, MAYBE WE CAN GET SOME SPRINKLES
WITH A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE, STRAIGHT OUT OF THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
NORTHERN CANADA, IS NOW CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER NE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 10Z. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RECENT
(ALBEIT VERY LIGHT) SNOWCOVER, HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER EXTREME W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHEN SOME RETURN-
FLOW STRATUS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM IN THE TEENS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E/SE TODAY AND ALLOW FOR RETURN
FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL HELP AIR TEMPS MODERATE OVER YESTERDAY/THIS MORNING,
BUT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE
CHILLY/BLUSTERY.
STILL EXPECTING A SOLID 25-30 DEGREE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY TO MONDAY, WHICH WILL KICK OFF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
PRIMARILY ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE WEEK FOR TEMPERATURES. MAY
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT NEITHER DAY LOOK OVERLY CONCERNING AT
THIS TIME. LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT A DRY AND BROWN
PICTURE AS WE HEAD INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
COLD AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS RESULTED IN OVER-PRODUCING
SNOWFALL FOR MANY AREAS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, ALTHOUGH
SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING OF SNOW. UNLESS
SOMETHING SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AND WINDS GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. ANY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT MANY SPOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILLS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -5 TO
-10 RANGE.
SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AS RIDGING NUDGES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT WITH THE STEADY WIND, IT'LL STILL FEEL QUITE
CHILLY.
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR IS STILL ON-TAP AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WORKWEEK. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
SHOULD MELT ANY REMAINING SNOW/ICE MONDAY...AND SOME AREAS COULD
EVEN REACH THE 60S FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ONLY A LOW
(10-15%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT
WILL RESULT IN A WINDIER AND COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY.
BEYOND THAT, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES SHOW LITTLE, IF ANY, SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW. AT
THIS POINT, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS LOOKING
PRETTY BLEAK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A GREAT MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE VFR CEILING/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (VFR VISIBILITY LIKELY
THROUGHOUT), AND ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REACH FAIRLY BREEZY LEVELS FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING ONWARD
(GUSTS 20-25KT). BY FAR THE MAIN "QUESTION MARKS" ARE: 1) COULD
THERE BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILING BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND EARLY-AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY KEAR)?...2) COULD LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) BECOME STRONG ENOUGH SUNDAY EVENING TO WARRANT
FORMAL TAF INCLUSION (SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 30+ KT)? MORE ELEMENT-
SPECIFIC DETAILS FOLLOW.
- CEILING UNCERTAINTIES/CONCERNS:
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE FIRST SEVERAL AND FINAL SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE VFR WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A MODEST CHANCE (ESPECIALLY AT KEAR...A BIT LESSER AT KGRI)
THAT THE EXPANSIVE DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OUT OVER
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD BRING A FEW TO PERHAPS SEVERAL
HOURS OF MVFR CEILING AS THEY PUSH BACK EAST MAINLY POST-SUNRISE
AND INTO SUNDAY DAYTIME. THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT
CANNOT JUSTIFY INTRODUCING PREVAILING MVFR, BUT WILL AT LEAST
"HINT" AT THE POTENTIAL WITH SCT/FEW LOWER CLOUD GROUPS.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
THE LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD ARE RIGHT AWAY THESE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE (MAINLY 6KT OR
LESS/VARIABLE DIRECTION). HOWEVER, POST-SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE
DAY, SOUTHERLY SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP-UP TO FAIRLY
BREEZY...WITH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY 18-23Z
(COMMONLY SUSTAINED 15-20KT/GUSTS 20-25KT). THESE SPEEDS WILL
ONLY BACK OFF SLIGHTLY SUNDAY EVENING.
- POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)?:
ALTHOUGH DID NOT INTRODUCE TO TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN IT IS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND WELL-BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS, LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A FORMAL LLWS GROUP FOR SUNDAY
EVENING. CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 1-2K FT. AGL COULD RAMP UP TO AROUND 40KT, RESULTING IN
SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL APPROACHING
THE TAF THRESHOLD OF 30+KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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