005
FXUS63 KGID 151741
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1141 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
WED NIGHT - THU AM.
- THE GREATEST WEATHER IMPACT IN THE UPCOMING WEEK COULD BE
STRONG NW WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY - PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ABOUT AS QUIET AS POSSIBLE IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST. THE ONLY REAL
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE, WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 10-30%, COMES WITH A
POTENT NORTHERN U.S. DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THESE LOW-END CHANCES WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN - SO NOT ALL THAT IMPACTFUL FOR DECEMBER.
THE GREATEST WEATHER IMPACT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD COULD BE
STRONG NWRLY WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
LATEST MODEL BLENDS AND EPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS >50 MPH GUSTS ARE
ON THE TABLE, ESP. FOR N HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH 60-65
MPH GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM AROUND GRAND ISLAND TO
ORD. FOR EXAMPLE, THE LATEST EPS MEAN WIND GUST FOR GRAND ISLAND
ON THURSDAY IS 50-55 MPH. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL
CONSIDERING IT'S A 50 MEMBER ENSEMBLE AND ITS DAY 4. NBM OUTPUT
IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE WITH 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES >50 MPH FOR ALL
BUT OUR FAR S, AND 60-65 MPH IN OUR "POSTAGE STAMP" COUNTIES
N/NW OF GI.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY KEEP RHS IN
CHECK MOSTLY ABOVE 25%...BUT ANY TREND WARMER COULD CERTAINLY
CHANGE THIS AND BE MORE CONCERNING. FIRE WEATHER MAY ALSO BE
ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN IT LOOKS TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
(MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, AT LEAST) AND BREEZY...BUT ONCE AGAIN,
RHS COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN THE 25-35% RANGE.
QUICK PEAK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO CHRISTMAS CONTINUES SHOW
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, CHANCES FOR
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE. LOOKING LIKE LATE DECEMBER IS GOING TO
FEEL MORE LIKE MID TO LATE NOVEMBER. MILD AND BROWN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
CLOUD COVER NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 183 HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN AND
ACTUALLY IS EXPANDING A BIT EASTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
AS SUCH, FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE TRENDED
DOWNWARD. ADDITIONALLY, BASED ON AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS AND AREA
CAMERAS, SOME FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY IS STILL ON-TRACK TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY, AND THIS
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. FOR
COMPARISON, WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS OF NOON
TODAY, BUT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
TUESDAY TRENDS EVEN WARMER AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, COMBINED WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NICEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS WARM, BUT AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS. WITH THE WIND AND WARMER-
THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY (AND ALSO ON THURSDAY). BUT
CURRENTLY, HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20% FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION
(LIGHT RAIN) AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER...BUT NOT OVERLY
COLD. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S, WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR MID DECEMBER.
BEYOND THAT, MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WARMUP LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. AND LONGER-RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. OVER THE NEXT 10
DAYS (DEC 16-25TH), THE EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL WHEN TAKING A 10-DAY
AVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE LREF (GEPS/GEFS/EPS) SHOWS JUST A 10%
CHANCE OF SEEING A TOTAL OF 0.10" QPF THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
IN SHORT, IF YOU REALLY WANT TO SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS, YOU'LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO TRAVEL OUT OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT AROUND 15/23Z...INCREASING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST (12G20KTS) BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY (THAT MAY
ALSO BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS) TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. MAY ALSO SEE SOME VERY MARGINAL LLWS WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT IT WAS TOO WEAK TO MENTION IN CURRENT TAFS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...SR
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