663
FXUS63 KGID 161043
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TODAY WITH MILDLY
BREEZY NORTH WINDS (15 TO 25 MPH) IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
(ALONG WITH ONLY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER).
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONGER COLD FRONT,
THAT WILL BRING VERY STRONG NW WIND GUSTS OF 40-50+ MPH ON
THURSDAY.
- AFTER A SEASONAL THURSDAY (30S/40S), GENERALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES (MOSTLY 50S) ARE EXPECTED TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK
AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MILD WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED TO STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AND NO
OBVIOUS SIGNALS FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT OF NOTE THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG NWRLY WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. EPS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN PEAK GUSTS OF
50-55 MPH ALONG AND ESP. N OF THE STATE LINE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. TYPICALLY, THIS SIGNAL LEADS TO AT LEAST SCATTERED
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH, WHICH WOULD MEET HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT'S STILL A BIT EARLY FOR
AN OFFICIAL HIGH WIND WATCH (STILL 48+ HOURS AWAY FROM 50+ MPH
GUSTS), BUT ASSUMING THERE'S NO MAJOR CHANGES IN MODEL OUTPUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS, SEEMS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE ONE WILL
NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, APPEARS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO KEEP RHS FROM TANKING AND
THERE BEING A SOLID CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER, EVEN
MID TO UPPER 20S RHS WITH SUCH STRONG WIND GUSTS IS OBVIOUSLY
NOT IDEAL. ALSO, WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME, WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BLOWING DUST ISSUES GIVEN RECENT DRY WEATHER, WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE NEAR-FULL INSOLATION, AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEEMS
UNLIKELY WE'LL GET ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS
WITH ANY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WE GET WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
SETTLE DUST, EITHER.
OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ON THURSDAY, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
REMARKABLY QUIET/BORING IN TERMS OF IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION FOR
MID-DECEMBER. EVEN LONG TERM ENSEMBLES ARE INCREDIBLY BLEAK WITH
PROSPECTS FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE END
OF THE MONTH. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO CONSISTENTLY MILD/WARM THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH, WHICH IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW
PACK. SO THAT ONLY LEAVES TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS AS A DAY-TO-
DAY FORECAST "CHALLENGE". WE'LL SEE A DIP IN TEMPS THURSDAY, AND
PERHAPS AGAIN SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LOT OF 50S/60S
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNED TO THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH LOWER 60S BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR A VERY NICE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT...A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM OF THE AREA ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT HAVE LITTLE MEANINGFUL
IMPACT. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD REACH THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO AGAIN PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MODEST RESURGENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS,
WHICH WILL LIKELY REACH 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL JUST BE A PRECURSOR TO A MORE SEASONAL
AIRMASS EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER, AND COULD EVEN SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE WINDOW FOR ANY PRECIP APPEARS BRIEF IN MODEL DATA. THAT
SAID, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE NOTICABLY COOLER/WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY. SEVERAL
MODELS ARE INDICATING WINDS COULD GUSTS 50+ MPH DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY, AND INCREASED THE FORECAST VALUES TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL HINTED AT IN A MAJORITY OF EC/GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THIS WINDY/COOL PUNCH WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A FLAT
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE HINTED AT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID RETURN TO MILD TEMPERATURES TO FINISH
OUT THE WORK WEEK AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. CPC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT PREDICTING TEMPERATURES IN 40S/50S CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE 30TH, INDICATING WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY
PROLONGED STRETCH OF MILD (AND DRY) WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY-HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING VFR
CEILING (MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT ALSO A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOSTLY AT/ABOVE
12K FT. AGL MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON). IT IS ALSO A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING VFR VISIBILITY, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF FLEETING/VERY
PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE (GIVEN
LIGHT-BUT-STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES...THIS SEEMS TO BE
A LOW ENOUGH PROBABILITY THAT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS).
AS FOR WINDS, NO BIG ISSUES FORESEEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS MOST
OF THE PERIOD UNDER 10KT AS DIRECTION GENERALLY SHIFTS FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY TUES AM...TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TUES
AFTERNOON-EVENING BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY 18-23Z, BUT EVEN THEN GUSTS
SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 16KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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