735
FXUS63 KGID 170010
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY-TO-MODERATELY-WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST NEAR-TO-OVER 40 MPH, MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF I-80.
- LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS, WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS (GUSTS 55-60+ MPH) CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA.
- MOSTLY DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES HAVE OVERACHIEVED. DESPITE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 60S IN MANY
AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY, BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
GUST OVER 40 MPH IN MANY AREAS NORTH OF I-80. AND A FEW GUSTS TO
50 MPH AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION (40% CHANCE IN VALLEY COUNTY).
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THIS
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RAIN-ONLY EVENT FOR OUR AREA, AND
NORTHEASTERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES UP
TO POSSIBLY 0.10".
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH, BRINGING STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS TO
THE AREA. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT TIMING, THIS INITIAL SURGE OF WIND
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40-50 MPH RANGE, WITH STRONGER WINDS ARRIVING
DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONGST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ON WHERE THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
(GEFS FAVORS WEST...EPS FAVORS NORTH AND EAST). BUT, BASED ON
THE NBM, MOST OF NEBRASKA HAS A 50-80% CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH. PROBABILITIES IN NORTHERN KANSAS ARE A BIT
LOWER (30-40%), BUT THOSE AREAS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER/DRIER, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL FALL OF PRETTY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S. AFTER THIS BRIEF COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES REBOUND
FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A MODEST COOLDOWN, AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS LOW (10%).
NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS INCREDIBLY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER.
ENSEMBLE-MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S, WITH SOME
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HINTING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE DAYS
AROUND CHRISTMAS.
&
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE (90%) IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY.
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT,
WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY AT/ABOVE
20K FEET. BY FAR THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE QUITE-BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH TAF-INCLUSION
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRONGER/MORE CONFIDENT
SIGNAL FOR LLWS WILL ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THIS VALID PERIOD.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
THE LIGHTEST SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THESE FIRST 15
HOURS...MAINLY AT-OR-BELOW 8KT AS DIRECTION GENERALLY
TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHERLY...TO WESTERLY...TO SOUTHERLY. THEN,
SOUTHERLY WINDS STEADILY RAMP UP FROM 15Z ONWARD...BUT
ESPECIALLY BY/AFTER 17-18Z...WHEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
20KT/GUSTS 25-30KT WILL BE COMMON.
- MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
DESPITE THE QUITE-BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 1-2K FT. AGL WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TO 40-50KT. OVERALL SHEAR MAGNITUDE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 25-30KT,
BUT WITH THIS BEING SLIGHTLY MARGINAL VERSUS TAF INCLUSION
CRITERIA (30+KT SHEAR MAGNITUDE WITHIN THE LOWEST 2K FT. AGL)
WILL OMIT FOR NOW BUT IT'S WORTH MONITORING. ASSUMING MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS HOLD...SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL LIKELY FEATURE LLWS
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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