453
FXUS63 KGID 171204
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
604 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY-TO-MODERATELY-WINDY TODAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
GUST NEAR-TO-OVER 40 MPH, MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF I-80.
- LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (10-30%) WITH A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TRI-CITIES N AND E.
- DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS 50-60+ MPH) BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG WIND MAY
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
- MOSTLY DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON
OR AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
***HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.***
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
POTENT LOW TO MID LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, BEHIND A DEPARTING DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST. FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE JET STREAK TO COINCIDE
WITH DAYTIME MIXING (STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES) AND LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER ARE FACTORS THAT COULD COMBINE TO MAKE THIS A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GUSTS SHOULD QUICKLY RAMP UP
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE 50-60 MPH RANGE...AND STILL THINK N
AREAS SUCH AS ORD COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH TO PERHAPS
EVEN 70 MPH! GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL CONSISTENCY AND LIKELIHOOD
THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MOST FELT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
WENT AHEAD AND COORDINATED WITH SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES TO
UPGRADE THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WATCH OVER TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONE WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SUCH AS TREE DAMAGE, POWER OUTAGES, AND VERY
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR LIGHTWEIGHT AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...BUT THINK THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SECONDARY IMPACTS
SUCH AS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING DUST AND AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. FORTUNATELY, FOR FIRE WEATHER, DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES AND THUS
HELP TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM FALLING OUT ON AFTERNOON RHS. THE
AREA TO WATCH THE MOST, HOWEVER, WILL BE W-SW OF THE TRI-CITIES
WHERE RHS MAY STILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S - WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE VERY STRONG WIND - COULD STILL BE ENOUGH SERIOUSLY
HAMPER FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS FOR ANY NEW IGNITIONS. FINALLY,
WITH SUCH DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE, HAVE OPTED TO ADD SOME
BLOWING DUST TO THE FORECAST, AS WELL. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
ANTICIPATE JUST HOW MUCH OR HOW BAD BLOWING DUST WILL BE, BUT
AGAIN, THE DAYTIME TIMING AND OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF GUSTS WITH
RECENT DRY WEATHER SUGGEST REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED BASIS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT MAY HELP THAT THE STRONG
WINDS ARE NRLY AND NOT SWRLY AS THAT'S USUALLY A "BETTER"/MORE
SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR DUST PARTICLES.
OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH INCREASING
SRLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OVERACHIEVING GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE, SO WENT AHEAD AND BLENDED IN SOME NBM90TH PERCENTILE TO
BUMP VALUES UP A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES. MAY STILL NOT BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTS, BUT GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DIDN'T WANT TO OVERCORRECT TOO
MUCH. TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WINDIER THAN PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, ESP. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESP. OVER ROUGHLY THE NW HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40-45 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE 11AM-4PM TIME FRAME.
TYPICALLY, WHEN WE SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S OR EVEN 60S IN
DECEMBER WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS, WE'D BE WORRIED ABOUT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY
FUELS, APPEARS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE A MISSING
INGREDIENT TO A HIGHER-END FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY AROUND OR
ABOVE 25%. BY NO MEANS WANT TO IMPLY TODAY IS A GOOD DAY FOR
FIRES, JUST POINTING OUT THAT IT'S NOT A "HIGH-END" SETUP.
FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO OUR NEXT POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING COPIOUS MOISTURE TO THE
PACIFIC NW, AND WOULD EXPECT IT TO RETAIN AT LEAST SOME OF IT'S
MID TO HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THUS, STILL THINKING WE'LL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, QUICK-
MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADS ME TO THINK ANY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER MILD/WARM AND
MAINLY DRY. IN FACT, SOME DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
NOW SHOWING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE MONTH COMING
ON OR AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. PERHAPS OUR GIFT FROM MOTHER NATURE
WILL BE SOME RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES HAVE OVERACHIEVED. DESPITE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 60S IN MANY
AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY, BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
GUST OVER 40 MPH IN MANY AREAS NORTH OF I-80. AND A FEW GUSTS TO
50 MPH AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION (40% CHANCE IN VALLEY COUNTY).
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THIS
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RAIN-ONLY EVENT FOR OUR AREA, AND
NORTHEASTERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES UP
TO POSSIBLY 0.10".
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH, BRINGING STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS TO
THE AREA. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT TIMING, THIS INITIAL SURGE OF WIND
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40-50 MPH RANGE, WITH STRONGER WINDS ARRIVING
DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONGST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ON WHERE THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
(GEFS FAVORS WEST...EPS FAVORS NORTH AND EAST). BUT, BASED ON
THE NBM, MOST OF NEBRASKA HAS A 50-80% CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH. PROBABILITIES IN NORTHERN KANSAS ARE A BIT
LOWER (30-40%), BUT THOSE AREAS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER/DRIER, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL FALL OF PRETTY QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S. AFTER THIS BRIEF COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES REBOUND
FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A MODEST COOLDOWN, AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS LOW (10%).
NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS INCREDIBLY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER.
ENSEMBLE-MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S, WITH SOME
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HINTING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE DAYS
AROUND CHRISTMAS.
&
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE (90%) IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY.
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
TODAY: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY. SCATTERED, THIN, HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICKER
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOWARDS MIDDAY, AND ESP. THIS AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED SSW WINDS AROUND 15-20KT, AND GUSTS AROUND 30-35KT,
ARE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
TONIGHT: BY FAR, THE GREATEST AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FIRST, AROUND SUNSET,
EXPECT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO BRING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) TO BOTH EAR AND GRI. SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ONCE THE
LLWS DEVELOPS, IT'LL STICK AROUND MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 05-06Z AND RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM
SW/WSW TO NW/NNW, AND AT LEAST A 1-2 HR UPTICK IN WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO FEATURE SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, SO HAVE TACKLED THIS WITH
A SHORT-DURATION PROB30 GROUP. DESPITE THE BRIEF SHOT AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL WITH
CIGS AROUND 5-10K FT, OR HIGHER. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...THIES
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