646
FXUS63 KGID 172117
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (10-30%) WITH A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE TRI-CITIES N AND E.
- DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS 55-70 MPH) LIKELY THURSDAY AND A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM. STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO EXPECTED
THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN FACT, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ON OR AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A FAIRLY THICK SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE STREAMING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS HELP TO
HOLD DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 AS OF 3 PM TODAY. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR CAN BE
SEEN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY NOTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND, WITH ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING/LATE
TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY
CROSS THE STATE OF NEBRASKA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN ROUGHLY
9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
(LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES) ALONG THIS FRONT, THE FOCUS OF THIS
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE, WITH ONLY
A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FROM
ROUGHLY THE TRI-CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST - WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIP. THE BIGGER
IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL THE A SURGE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD GUST 40 TO 55 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
MIDNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WIDESPREAD WIND
GUST POTENTIAL OF 50-60 KT DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST NORTH
OF I-80. WITH (AT LEAST) SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALSO EXPECTED,
THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL COULD ALSO BE AIDED BY MIXING TO AROUND
800MB, INCREASING LIKELIHOOD VERY STRONG WINDS/GUSTS. AS A
RESULT, HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO
70 MPH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS, ALSO KEPT THE MENTION FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF SNOW COVER AND HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN LATELY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND BLOWING DUST, ANTHER CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREN'T QUITE AS LOW AS WE
TYPICALLY LIKE TO SEE, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND RH VALUES AT
LEAST "NEAR" WARNING CRITERIA, OPTED TO PULL THE TRIGGER FOR A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE WARMEST AND RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEYOND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
YET ANOTHER (NOT AS STRONG AND DRY) COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 40S OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH A
RETURN TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PERSISTS INTO THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS WEEK ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN
CLIMBING TO NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE "TYPICAL"
CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS
COULD ALSO STIR UP SOME DUST, BUT DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE REDUCED VSBYS IN BLDU AT EITHER SITE AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT,
SURGING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS
FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE IN WINDS, AND
POSSIBLY SOME MARGINAL LLWS, WINDS WILL NOT FULLY INCREASE UNTIL
THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED
FROM THE MID-MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN, THIS COULD
STIR UP SOME BLDU, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF REDUCED
VSBYS IN EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO BLDU AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR
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