213
FXUS63 KGID 181103
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
503 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BY FAR THE MAIN CONCERNS OF OUR ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST ARE
RIGHT AWAY TODAY (HIGH WIND WARNING ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 6 PM...RED FLAG WARNING FOR HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN OUR NORTHERN KS COUNTIES 10 AM-6 PM).
- ALTHOUGH OF TYPICALLY-LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW IMPACTFUL
IT MIGHT ACTUALLY BE, AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF BLOWING DUST
IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE HIGH WINDS.
- BEYOND TODAY, THERE ARE CERTAINLY NO APPARENT TRULY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
AND EVEN JUST BEYOND (INCLUDING CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY).
IN FACT, OUR ENTIRE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: BEYOND CHILLIER READINGS TODAY-TONIGHT ,
THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY LEADING INTO CHRISTMAS LOOKS TO
PREVAIL SOLIDLY ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR LATE-DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 40S-50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY 20S-30S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- ANY NOTABLE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS 7-DAY FORECAST ISSUANCE?:
HONESTLY, NO. CERTAINLY NOTHING NOTEWORTHY, AS BEYOND TODAY'S
HIGH WIND/FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WE GET INTO A REMARKABLY
"QUIET" AND QUITE-MILD PATTERN BY LATE-DECEMBER STANDARDS THANKS
TO PERSISTENT, BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS.
- FOCUSING EXCLUSIVELY ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
AS DISCUSSED HERE IN AN UPDATE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE
"START TIME" OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA (CWA) TODAY WAS MOVED UP SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A BRIEF/TRANSIENT SURGE OF MAINLY 50-60 MPH GUSTS THAT
MARCHED THROUGH OUR CWA FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGES OF THE INVADING COLD FRONT/SURFACE PRESSURE RISE
COUPLET. INDEED, A FEW OFFICIAL AIRPORT SENSORS (INCLUDING
ORD/GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS) ALL CLOCKED PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 59-63
MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST GUSTINESS
REMAINS HERE AND THERE, OVERALL WE ARE NOW IN THE MIDST OF
RELATIVE LULL/BREAK FROM TRULY HIGH WINDS THAT WILL LAST UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE.
NOT TO BE TOTALLY OVERLOOKED, AREAS OF TRANSIENT RAIN SHOWERS
(AT LEAST SPRINKLES) TRAVERSED MUCH OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE OVERALL-HIGHEST COVERAGE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST HALF.
MANY PLACES MANAGED TO PICK UP AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH (INCLUDING AT LEAST 0.05" HERE AT OUR OFFICE).
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, EARLY-AM WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS DIVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SD/ND
BORDER. AT THE SURFACE, THE OVERNIGHT/INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE
HAS CLEARED OUR ENTIRE CWA, WITH TEMPORARILY-LIGHTER WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. OFFICIAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
(THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE) WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY 30S.
- TODAY (DAYTIME):
HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CLEARLY THE "BIG
STORIES", WITH SOME SECONDARY (BUT UNCERTAIN) CONCERN FOR
BLOWING DUST (SEE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
ON THAT TOPIC). IN THE MID- UPPER LEVELS, THE
VIGOROUS/AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, AS THE "PARENT" CLOSED LOW REACHES THE IA/MN/WI/IL
BORDER AREA BY SUNSET. NO ADDITIONAL RAIN/PRECIP IS EXPECTED,
AND SKIES WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, BUT PARTLY
TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH/EAST AS A BATCH OF SOMEWHAT
LOWER CLOUDS ROTATES THROUGH OUR AREA.
AS DAYTIME/DIURNAL MIXING AND EFFICIENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION/MOMENTUM TRANSFER KICKS IN, OUR HIGH WINDS "MAIN
EVENT" WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
VARIOUS/LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR TRULY HIGH-
END GUSTS 65-70 MPH SEEMS TO HAVE LOWERED A BIT VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO, BUT NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO COMMONLY REACH 50-65
MPH (WEAKEST FAR EAST/STRONGEST WEST), WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COMMONLY 30-40 MPH (SPOTTY 45 MPH).
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HOUR-TO-HOUR FORECAST VALUES ARE BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT EXCEPT PERHAPS IN OUR SOUTHERN/KS ZONES, HIGHS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME THIS MORNING, WITH FALLING-TO-NEAR-STEADY
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS RANGING FROM MID-UPPER 20S NORTHEAST TO UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 FAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. IN FACT, SINGLE-DIGIT WIND
CHILLS WILL EXIST IN OUR FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON...QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS!
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REALLY DROP OFF
AFTER 7-8 PM WITH SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ONLY 5-10 MPH
AS TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH, TURNING LIGHT
BREEZES TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED 16-23 MOST PLACES.
- FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS TODAY, THIS WILL BE A WARMER,
BUT LEGITIMATELY-BREEZY DAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH.
MORE SPECIFICALLY, MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
15-25 MPH/GUSTS 20-30 MPH. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES (PERHAPS A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS?),
HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY VERSUS TODAY...WITH LOW-MID 50S
MOST AREAS AND UPPER 50S TO EVEN A FEW LOW 60S FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT, BREEZES EASE UP AND REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY IN
THE EVENING BEFORE A FAIRLY MODEST COLD FRONT MOVES IN POST-
MIDNIGHT, TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP 10+
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, WITH MOST PLACES DROPPING NO
FARTHER THAN LOW 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A FAIRLY THICK SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE STREAMING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS HELP TO
HOLD DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 AS OF 3 PM TODAY. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR CAN BE
SEEN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY NOTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND, WITH ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING/LATE
TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY
CROSS THE STATE OF NEBRASKA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN ROUGHLY
9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
(LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES) ALONG THIS FRONT, THE FOCUS OF THIS
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE, WITH ONLY
A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FROM
ROUGHLY THE TRI-CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST - WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY PRECIP. THE BIGGER
IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL THE A SURGE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD GUST 40 TO 55 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
MIDNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WIDESPREAD WIND
GUST POTENTIAL OF 50-60 KT DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST NORTH
OF I-80. WITH (AT LEAST) SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALSO EXPECTED,
THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL COULD ALSO BE AIDED BY MIXING TO AROUND
800MB, INCREASING LIKELIHOOD VERY STRONG WINDS/GUSTS. AS A
RESULT, HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO
70 MPH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS, ALSO KEPT THE MENTION FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF SNOW COVER AND HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN LATELY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND BLOWING DUST, ANTHER CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREN'T QUITE AS LOW AS WE
TYPICALLY LIKE TO SEE, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND RH VALUES AT
LEAST "NEAR" WARNING CRITERIA, OPTED TO PULL THE TRIGGER FOR A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE WARMEST AND RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEYOND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
YET ANOTHER (NOT AS STRONG AND DRY) COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 40S OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH A
RETURN TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PERSISTS INTO THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY MILD
CHRISTMAS WEEK ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN
CLIMBING TO NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE "TYPICAL"
CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
-- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY-HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD (ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-VFR
CEILING AND/OR SPORADIC VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST),
THERE ARE PLENTY OF WIND-RELATED CONCERNS TO GO
AROUND...INCLUDING VERY STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND ALSO SEVERAL
HOURS OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE UNUSUALLY LARGE NUMBER OF FM
GROUPS IN LATEST TAFS ARE ALMOST ENTIRELY REFLECTIVE OF THESE
WIND CONCERNS.
-- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
MODERATELY STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL MARK THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD. WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE PERIOD (06-07Z), AN
INITIAL/BRIEF "SURGE" OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE
(GUSTS 35+ KT LIKELY). THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SPEEDS WILL BACK DOWN WITH NORTHWESTERLY
GUSTS PEAKING CLOSER TO 25KT. HOWEVER, ONCE DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES, RATHER INTENSE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ESPECIALLY 15-22Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY AT LEAST
30-35KT/GUSTS COMMONLY 40-50KT. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THE EVENING, SPEEDS WILL DECREASE...GRADUALLY AT FIRST
(GUSTS AT LEAST 20-25KT STILL PROBABLY AT 00Z)...BUT THEN
SUSTAINED SPEEDS DROPPING UNDER 10KT BY 03Z.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
DESPITE BREEZY TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY-WINDY SURFACE WINDS, WILL
MAINTAIN LLWS GROUPS THROUGH THESE FIRST 15 HOURS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COMMONLY 45-55KT
WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2K FT. AGL...RESULTING IN A SOLID 30-35+KT
OF SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL. ONCE
DAYTIME MIXING KICKS IN AND SURFACE SPEEDS INCREASE, LLWS
CONCERNS WILL WANE. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS AGAIN
TOWARD EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE, BUT LLWS MAGNITUDE
APPEARS CLOSER TO 25KT THAN THE TAF-INCLUSION-CRITERIA OF 30+KT.
-- POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY) CEILING/VISIBILITY
CONCERNS:
- CEILING:
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (CEILING MAINLY NEAR/ABOVE 9K FT. AGL).
HOWEVER A LOWER VFR-CEILING PERHAPS CLOSER TO 4-5K FT. AGL COULD
MATERIALIZE AT TIMES. MVFR IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
- VISIBILITY:
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH (ESPECIALLY
GIVEN IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE LOCALIZED VERSUS WIDESPREAD), AT
LEAST SPORADIC VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. PREVIOUS TAFS HINTED AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH "6SM
BLDU" GROUPS...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN CURRENT TAFS FOCUSED
15-22Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY (INCLUDING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES):
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
TECHNICALLY HOLD UP SOMEWHAT ABOVE OUR TYPICAL/OFFICIAL RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, MINIMUM RH HAS BEEN DEEMED "LOW ENOUGH"
(25-30 PERCENT) IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES TO JUSTIFY
THE CONTINUATION OF AN OFFICIAL RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM-6 PM,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL
ENDURE SEVERAL HOURS OF VERY STRONG SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AS
HIGH AS 35-45 MPH/GUSTS UP TO 55-65 MPH. GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT HIGHER MINIMUM DAYTIME RH (MAINLY
30-40 %) FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES, A FORMAL
WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT THERE DESPITE STILL BEING SOME ELEVATED
FIRE THREAT GIVEN THE WINDS.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING, WITH SPEEDS PREVAILING UNDER 10 MPH AS DIRECTION
TRANSITIONS FROM WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007- 017>019.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
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