234
FXUS63 KGID 191129
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON (70-90%) AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST UP TO 25-35MPH
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES MAINLY BETWEEN 20-30%.
- THE 7-DAY FORECAST REMAINS DRY, THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP
(10-15%) CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES (50S/60S) WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL
AS THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, BREEZY SOUTHERLIES
WILL RETURN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (GUSTS UP TO 25-35MPH) AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THESE GUSTY
SOUTHERLIES WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH, LIFTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. DESPITE A
FEW CLOUDS TODAY, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL
BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S, GENERALLY WARMEST TOWARDS THE
WEST.
RECOVERING DEWPOINTS FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S FRONT (ONLY IN THE
20S) SHOULD LAG BEHIND THE WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP AS LOW AS 20-30%.
THE LOW RH VALUES WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMPT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS (70-90% CHANCES) ACROSS SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. A FEW ISOLATED DRIER AND MORE WESTERN LYING LOCATIONS COULD
BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (10-30% CHANCES),
THOUGH LIKELY NOT FOR LONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY RFW CRITERIA.
FALLING PRESSURE THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING WILL INDICATE THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE, ALSO TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT, WILL FLIP THE WIND DIRECTIONS BACK TO THE NORTH,
SEVERING THE WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LATER NIGHT
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS FILING IN MOST
OF THE NIGHT SKY WILL LIMIT THE EFFECT OF DIURNAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
LOWS AS RESULT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RETURN BACK TO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A
SLIM PRECIPITATION CHANCE BEHIND THE FRONT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT (10-15% CHANCE), ALTHOUGH APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD REFLECT A MORE ZONAL
WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH RIDGING FAVORED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SECONDARY FRONT CAME THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. FREQUENT NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH (WITH SOME
EXCEEDING 70 MPH) HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OFF AND THE SUN SETS MINIMIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE CHANGE WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT. THE RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS MAY
ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO BE EXPIRED/CANCELLED SLIGHTLY
EARLY, BUT AT A MINIMUM THE 6PM LOOKS TO BE FINE AS AN
EXPIRATION TIME.
THE STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL KEEP
FIRE DANGER ELEVATED, AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6PM AS WELL, AS THE WINDS DECREASE AND RH VALUES INCREASE
BY 6PM, THE RFW WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO BE EXPIRED/CANCELLED EARLY.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL/SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY MID NEXT WEEK. NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON A BIG OF A ROLLER
COASTER BEFORE MOVING HIGHER AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH,
DROPPING TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR REFERENCE, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR MID/LATE DECEMBER. TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO 60S NEXT WEEK. ON CHRISTMAS DAY ALONE, THE HIGH LOOKS
TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. THE RECORD HIGH FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AT
GRAND ISLAND, NE (KGRI) IS 62 DEGREES. THE FULL SUITE OF 100
MODELS AT 7 DAYS OUT INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 31% CHANCE THAT
THE TEMPERATURE WILL EXCEED 60 DEGREES, AND A 62% CHANCE THE
TEMP WILL EXCEED 55 DEGREES AT GRAND ISLAND. NO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE PRIMARLY AVIATION HAZARD WITHIN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE
LLWS. SOME LLWS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL TEMPORARILY GO
AWAY AS SURFACE SPEEDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LLWS
WILL BE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 23Z WHEN SURFACE WINDS
DECREASE. LLWS UP TO 50KTS AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VEER
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 23-12Z.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BLOW AS HIGH AS 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS. THOUGH BROKEN CEILINGS RETURN
THIS EVENING, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CLOUD BASES WILL FALL MUCH
MORE BELOW 15,000FT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...STUMP
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