196
FXUS63 KGID 201721
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1121 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE FULL 7-DAY FORECAST WITH A PATTERN
THAT FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL PEAK IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S, LATER WARMING INTO MAINLY THE 50S/60S THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.
- THE CONFIDENCE FOR NEAR-TO-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO INCREASE (50-65% CHANCE) FOR CHRISTMAS DAY (LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
A COLD FRONT, IN THE PROCESS OF DROPPING SOUTH AND THROUGH CENTRAL
NE/KS THIS MORNING, WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM ESCAPING THE
40S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURNING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT COULD GUST UP TO 20-30MPH ACROSS THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS WILL SHUFFLE IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY/NIGHT WITH SURFACE PRESSURE BACK ON THE RISE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BROADENING OF A MIDWEST CENTRIC HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
CENTER, WILL REARRANGE STEADY SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS FOR
SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO
MORE FOR SUNDAY, EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD LIKELY PLAY A
GREATER ROLE IN KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE OF CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLEARING SKIES WORK IN
TANDEM WITH THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WARM THINGS UP. IN ADDITION,
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TOWARDS
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE, GENERALLY A MORE PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSIVE
FEATURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
AS EXPECTED, SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING LIKE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO NEAR
30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE UNDERACHIEVED
AND I DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TIMES WITH
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
TONIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
CAUSING THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT FURTHER NORTH
OF NEBRASKA, BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO ALLOW
THIS TO MATERIALIZE FOR OUR AREA, REMAINING DRY. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK-WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN, WITH WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS (NEAR 3) ABOVE
NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS RIDGING WILL AID
TEMPERATURES IN HEATING UP, WITH TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IN
THE 50S AND INTO THE 60S. FOR OUR SITES THAT WE HAVE LONG-TERM
RECORDS FOR, AT GRAND ISLAND, FORECASTED HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY ARE REACHING/EXCEEDING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, THIS IS
STILL 6 DAYS AWAY, BUT THIS TREND HAS PERSISTED FOR A NUMBER OF
DAYS ALREADY. AT GRAND ISLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY THE MOST RECENT
FULL SUITE OF 100 MODELS PROVIDES A 36% CHANCE FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED 65 DEGREES WITH A 74% CHANCE THAT THE HIGH
WILL EXCEED 60 DEGREES. AT HASTINGS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, A 80%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES AND A 45% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 65
DEGREES. BOTTOM LINE, IT WILL BE VERY WARM BY THE END OF
DECEMBER STANDARDS (NEARLY 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON CURRENT RECORDS, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP
IT DRY, WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEK AND WEEKEND AFTER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
BOTH KGRI AND KEAR AIRPORTS. NORTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GUSTS TAPER
OFF AND WINDS DROP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BUT
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGHS.
WINDSPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST AS ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PASS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
RECORD HIGH (MAXIMUM) TEMPERATURES |CURRENT FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25TH: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 64
DECEMBER 26TH: 64 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 57
---------------
HASTINGS, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25TH: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 66
DECEMBER 26TH: 65 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 58
_________________________________________________________
RECORD HIGH (MINIMUM) TEMPERATURES |CURRENT FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 34 IN 1936 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 25TH: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 40
DECEMBER 26TH: 38 IN 1931 | FORECAST: 36
---------------
HASTINGS, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 33 IN 2005,1955 | FORECAST: 34
DECEMBER 25TH: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 41
DECEMBER 26TH: 38 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 37
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
CLIMATE...BILLINGS WRIGHT/STUMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page