494
FXUS63 KGID 201815
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY MILD CHRISTMAS WEEK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AND NO WEATHER-RELATED TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK AHEAD.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH WITH A 70%+ LIKELIHOOD OF BREAKING
THE RECORD HIGH AT GRAND ISLAND AROUND AN 80% CHANCE OF DOING
THE SAME AT HASTINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL HELP TO
QUICKLY SPIN WINDS DOWN THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES DROP NICELY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THOUGH WE WILL
STILL BE DEEP INTO THE 20S WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THOSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON OF 20
TO 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THAT MAY PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
FROM TODAY BUT IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL COLDER THAN TODAY. ON MONDAY, A
SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ADDED BY A SOLID
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND THE H85-700 LAYER. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWEST AND SKIES LOOK LARGELY SUNNY. ALL THAT WILL SPELL
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. FOR COMPARISON, NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 37 TO 43 DEGREES, NORTH-TO-SOUTH, ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS HAS BEEN WELL DISCUSSED, THE WEEK AHEAD IS DRY AND MILD, THOUGH
THERE SOME MINOR UPS AND DOWNS TEMPERATURE-WISE DUE TO TWO OR THREE
FRONTAL PASSAGES. AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY, THE FIRST "COLD" FRONT
MOVES LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION AND DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY BACK TO THE 50S. THAT IS STILL 15-18 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION, DRY CONDITIONS AND A MORE FAVORABLE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WIND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY. CHRISTMAS EVE MIGHT BE A STRETCH FOR RECORDS (IN
THE MIDDLE 60S) BUT CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHS IN THE 60S, OR EVEN LOWER
70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS PUT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY
FOR SURE. THE WIND IS A BIT MORE WESTERLY CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH WILL
AID THE WARM UP FURTHER. ONE NICE THING IS WIND SPEEDS ARE "TAME"
FOR LATE DECEMBER AND LIKELY TO HOLD MOSTLY UNDER 15 MPH BOTH
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS, THOUGH COULD PICK UP A BIT CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE WIDER DIURNAL RANGES. SO WHILE WE COULD
BE ALSO BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS, WE MAY ALSO
COOL A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE THE DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD
COVER, AS EVEN THIN HIGH CLOUDS CAN HAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE
WARMTH OF THE DAY THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL, ITS HARD TO FIND A
BETTER CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY IN TERMS OF PLEASANT WEATHER
AND NO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AFTER CHRISTMAS, WE SEE THE NEXT FRONT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ONE ON ITS HEELS FOR SATURDAY. IT IS STILL MILD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THE TREND IS TO TURN COOLER NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT, THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MAY DROP TEMPERATURES TO COLDER LEVELS
THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 50S...AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A NICE
BACKDOOR PUSH OF COLD AIR WITH THE MOST RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS
RUNS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AND REFINE. EVENTUALLY, ITS
DOES LOOK COLDER, AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL, BY NEW YEAR'S DAY.
IT DRY AND GOING TO REMAIN DRY. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
LESS THAN 50-50 CHANCE OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 0.10" (A TENTH)
DURING THE NEXT 10-15 DAYS! HAVE SAID THAT, WHILE THE WEEK AHEAD
DOES LOOK DRY, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HINTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AROUND DECEMBER 28-29-30 PER EC/GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AS
A POSSIBLE WEATHER SYSTEM MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS
EARLY AND ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW END, AND IN
LIQUID FORM AT THIS TIME. WHATEVER THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING, IT
COULD SIGNAL A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THE FIRST
WEEK OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
BOTH KGRI AND KEAR AIRPORTS. NORTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GUSTS TAPER
OFF AND WINDS DROP AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BUT
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGHS.
WINDSPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST AS ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PASS ACROSS THE REGION.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
RECORD HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE 70ISH OR HIGHER FOR HASTINGS
AND GRAND ISLAND AND NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 24, 25 AND 26.
RECORD HIGH (MAXIMUM) TEMPERATURES |CURRENT FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25TH: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 68
DECEMBER 26TH: 64 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 59
---------------
HASTINGS, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25TH: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 68
DECEMBER 26TH: 65 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 58
_________________________________________________________
RECORD HIGH (MINIMUM) TEMPERATURES |CURRENT FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 34 IN 1936 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 25TH: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 39
DECEMBER 26TH: 38 IN 1931 | FORECAST: 35
---------------
HASTINGS, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 33 IN 2005,1955 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 25TH: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 39
DECEMBER 26TH: 38 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 36
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
CLIMATE...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
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