581
FXUS63 KGID 211113
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
513 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25-35MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND CLOUDY SKIES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP UP AROUND 15 DEGREES STARTING MONDAY WITH
HIGHS PRIMARILY STAYING IN THE 50S/60S FOR THE WEEK.
- THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY FALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY
(60S TO LOW 70S). NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS SEEING A FEW KANSAS AREAS POTENTIALLY
REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.
- PRECIPITATION FOR NOW REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STEER GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BLOWING BETWEEN 10-20MPH WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH. TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM YESTERDAY) MAY STILL
FEEL COOLER OUT TODAY GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOKS PROBABLE GIVEN A FEW
DRIER LOCATIONS (TEEN TO LOW 20S DEWPOINTS) AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALES APPROACH 20-25%. NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
MATERIALIZE IN A FEW SPOTS IF TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVE FROM EITHER
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR STRONGER SUPPORT FROM THE SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS.
THE PROBABLY MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL FALL
BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP TO THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S (AROUND A 10-15 DEGREE LEAP FROM TODAY). THIS WARMUP WILL BE
INITIATED BY CLEARING SKIES AND THE INFLUENCE OF STEADY WINDS VEERING
TOWARD A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUIDE IN SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AS THE AIRMASS MOVES DOWN
FROM THE UPPER PLAINS. ALOFT, GENTLE RIDGING SLIDING OVER FROM THE
WEST WILL PROMOTE STABILIZATION AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE, KEEPING THE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL HELP TO
QUICKLY SPIN WINDS DOWN THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES DROP NICELY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THOUGH WE WILL
STILL BE DEEP INTO THE 20S WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THOSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON OF 20
TO 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THAT MAY PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
FROM TODAY BUT IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL COLDER THAN TODAY. ON MONDAY, A
SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ADDED BY A SOLID
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND THE H85-700 LAYER. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWEST AND SKIES LOOK LARGELY SUNNY. ALL THAT WILL SPELL
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. FOR COMPARISON, NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 37 TO 43 DEGREES, NORTH-TO-SOUTH, ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS HAS BEEN WELL DISCUSSED, THE WEEK AHEAD IS DRY AND MILD, THOUGH
THERE SOME MINOR UPS AND DOWNS TEMPERATURE-WISE DUE TO TWO OR THREE
FRONTAL PASSAGES. AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY, THE FIRST "COLD" FRONT
MOVES LATE MONDAY EVENING/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION AND DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY BACK TO THE 50S. THAT IS STILL 15-18 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION, DRY CONDITIONS AND A MORE FAVORABLE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WIND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY. CHRISTMAS EVE MIGHT BE A STRETCH FOR RECORDS (IN
THE MIDDLE 60S) BUT CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHS IN THE 60S, OR EVEN LOWER
70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS PUT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY
FOR SURE. THE WIND IS A BIT MORE WESTERLY CHRISTMAS DAY WHICH WILL
AID THE WARM UP FURTHER. ONE NICE THING IS WIND SPEEDS ARE "TAME"
FOR LATE DECEMBER AND LIKELY TO HOLD MOSTLY UNDER 15 MPH BOTH
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS, THOUGH COULD PICK UP A BIT CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE WIDER DIURNAL RANGES. SO WHILE WE COULD
BE ALSO BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS, WE MAY ALSO
COOL A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE THE DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUD
COVER, AS EVEN THIN HIGH CLOUDS CAN HAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE
WARMTH OF THE DAY THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL, ITS HARD TO FIND A
BETTER CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY IN TERMS OF PLEASANT WEATHER
AND NO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AFTER CHRISTMAS, WE SEE THE NEXT FRONT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ONE ON ITS HEELS FOR SATURDAY. IT IS STILL MILD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THE TREND IS TO TURN COOLER NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT, THE FRONT ON FRIDAY MAY DROP TEMPERATURES TO COLDER LEVELS
THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 50S...AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A NICE
BACKDOOR PUSH OF COLD AIR WITH THE MOST RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS
RUNS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AND REFINE. EVENTUALLY, ITS
DOES LOOK COLDER, AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL, BY NEW YEAR'S DAY.
IT DRY AND GOING TO REMAIN DRY. MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
LESS THAN 50-50 CHANCE OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 0.10" (A TENTH)
DURING THE NEXT 10-15 DAYS! HAVE SAID THAT, WHILE THE WEEK AHEAD
DOES LOOK DRY, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME HINTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AROUND DECEMBER 28-29-30 PER EC/GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AS
A POSSIBLE WEATHER SYSTEM MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS
EARLY AND ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW END, AND IN
LIQUID FORM AT THIS TIME. WHATEVER THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING, IT
COULD SIGNAL A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THE FIRST
WEEK OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DESPITE BROKEN CLOUD BASES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE EXPECTED TO RETAIN. MOST CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
BETWEEN 10-15KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. STEADY 10-15KT WINDS WILL LIKELY RETAIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING. 40-50KTS OF
LLWS WILL SHOW UP AROUND TO JUST AFTER 1Z. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE 70ISH OR HIGHER FOR
HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND AND NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 24 AND 25.
RECORD HIGH (MAXIMUM) TEMPERATURES |CURRENT FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 61
DECEMBER 25TH: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 65
---------------
HASTINGS, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 61
DECEMBER 25TH: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 66
_________________________________________________________
RECORD HIGH (MINIMUM) TEMPERATURES |CURRENT FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 34 IN 1936 | FORECAST: 35
DECEMBER 25TH: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 37
---------------
HASTINGS, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 33 IN 2005,1955 | FORECAST: 35
DECEMBER 25TH: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 39
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...MORITZ
AVIATION...STUMP
CLIMATE...STUMP
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