766
FXUS63 KGID 220600
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM START TO A MILD WEEK CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK WITH
MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 70 DEGREES AT SOME
LOCATIONS.
- STILL EXPECTING VERY MILD, EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT THERE
ARE HINTS AT POTENTIAL EARLY LOW CLOUDS/FOG IMPACTS, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OTHER LOCATIONS.
- THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
AS EXPECTED, A SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND TODAY HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENINGS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKER OVER WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS, BUT COULD HOLD UP FAIRLY STEADY TO
THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REFLECT THE WIND AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...COLDER WHERE WINDS DROP AND A BIT WARMER WHERE WINDS
REMAIN. YET, LOWS WILL LARGELY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY = BIG WARMUP ACROSS THE AREA. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE IS
THE FACT IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THAN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, DESPITE
THE FACT TEMPERATURES ALOFT (H850) TO THE SOUTH ARE WARMER (THAN
THE NORTH). FOR EXAMPLE, WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 70 AT ORD BUT LOW 60S AT HEBRON OR MANKATO. IT IS
MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS AS WELL. MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DETERMINED BY THE WIND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER WEST WIND COMING OUT OF THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS REGION AND PUSHING EAST. THAT FAVORABLE COMPRESSIONAL
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL SOAR TEMPERATURES TO 70 DEGREES IN THOSE
AREAS. A SIMILAR THING HAPPENS IN WESTERN AREAS FROM DAWSON DOWN
TO FURNAS COUNTY. BUT SOUTH/EAST OF HASTINGS AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WINDS ARE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG (LIGHT IN
FACT) AND FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. ITS STILL REALLY NICE BUT
THAT EXPLAINS THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH/WEST FORECAST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTH/EAST, DESPITE
THE ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE. WHETHER YOU LIKE 62 WITH LIGHT
WINDS, OR 72 WITH A BIT MORE WIND, ITS STILL PRETTY NICE FOR
DECEMBER 22ND.
SPEAKING OF WIND, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRING
SOME COOLER AIR. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTLING
IN FROM THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN,
HIGHS WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER THAN MONDAY (50S TO AROUND 60)
BUT STILL NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE DRY.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY ARE STILL MILD...BUT...THERE
ARE TRENDS DEVELOPING TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE COMING. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS WHICH COULD HAMPER THE WARM UP FOR SOME
AREAS, MORE LIKELY EAST OF US HIGHWAY 281. ITS EARLY, BUT THE
NAM, ECMWF AND TODAY'S RRFS TO A LESSER DEGREE ALL INDICATE SOME
POSSIBLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE LIGHTER BOTH DAYS,
MORE SOUTHERLY CHRISTMAS EVE, THOUGH MORE WESTERLY (POTENTIALLY)
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE TROUBLE WITH ANY AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS OR
MORNING FOG THIS TIME OF YEAR IS THE LOW SUN ANGLE, AND THE
DIFFICULTY OR INABILITY TO DISSIPATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EVEN IF IT DOES EVAPORATE OVER A FEW HOURS, THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE CAN STILL HAMPER AN ANTICIPATED WARM UP. ENSEMBLES HAVE
STARTED TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER BOTH DAYS (FEW DEGREES),
THOUGH STILL VERY MILD AND POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING. HOWEVER,
THE FORECAST DOES REFLECT THIS SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND BY A COUPLE
DEGREES AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. RIGHT NOW, IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY ANY CLOUDS/FOG THAT DEVELOP, BUT IF IT
DOES HAPPEN, WE COULD HAVE A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM WEST-
TO-EAST NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. AND TO
REITERATE, ITS EARLY, SO TRENDS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL FLUCTUATE
AND ADJUST WITH TIME, AS WILL THE RESULTANT FORECAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE MODELS COULD BE OVERSTATING MOISTURE RETURN, OR THE
VERY DRY GROUND/AMBIENT CONDITIONS COULD ALSO NEGATE SOME OF THE
MOISTURE INFLUENCE.
THE "COOLER BUT STILL MILD FOR DECEMBER TREND" IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR NEXT WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES. ONE OF THE
MORE INTERESTING THINGS IS, IF THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY, WE COULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER FRIDAY
AFTER THE FRONT DUE TO A MORE FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW AND FULL
SUNSHINE. THIS IS ALSO POINT WORTH WATCHING. EVENTUALLY, COLD
AIR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BUT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 0.10" THROUGH MONDAY THE 29TH AT LESS
THAN 20%, SO THE FORECAST REMAINS OFFICIALLY DRY.
AFTER THE POST CHRISTMAS COOL DOWN, ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS BOTH INDICATE A WARM UP TO END THE YEAR (30TH/31ST) BEFORE
COLDER AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD INFLUENCE THE AREA
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY-HIGH-CONFIDENCE PERIOD REGARDING VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY, WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS MAINLY NEAR-TO-ABOVE 20K FEET. EVEN WINDS WILL BE
SEASONABLY-LIGHT OVERALL, WITH ONGOING MODERATELY-STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
THE OVERALL-STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD FOCUS RIGHT AWAY THESE
FIRST 3-5 HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...GENERALLY SUSTAINED
10-15KT/GUSTS 15-20KT FROM THE SOUTH. FROM AROUND 11Z ONWARD,
SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
LARGELY PREVAIL AT-OR-BELOW 11KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY 16-23Z COULD FEATURE SOME SPORADIC MINOR
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 16KT.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO ONGOING LLWS GROUPS VERSUS
PREVIOUS TAFS...BUT DID EXTEND UNTIL 11Z KEAR/12Z KGRI BASED ON
LATEST MODEL DATA. DESPITE THE MODESTLY-BREEZY SURFACE WINDS,
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AVERAGING
ROUGHLY 45KT MAINLY BETWEEN 1-2K FT. AGL, WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
MODERATELY-STRONG SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 30-35KT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE 70ISH OR HIGHER FOR
HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND AND NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.
BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 24 AND 25.
RECORD HIGH (MAXIMUM) TEMPERATURES |CURRENT FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 61
DECEMBER 25TH: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 66
---------------
HASTINGS, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 62
DECEMBER 25TH: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 66
_________________________________________________________
RECORD HIGH (MINIMUM) TEMPERATURES |CURRENT FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 34 IN 1936 | FORECAST: 35
DECEMBER 25TH: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 35
---------------
HASTINGS, NE
DECEMBER 24TH: 33 IN 2005,1955 | FORECAST: 39
DECEMBER 25TH: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 39
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MORITZ
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...MORITZ
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