556
FXUS63 KGID 230534
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREDIBLY MILD AND "QUIET"
FOR LATE DECEMBER, WITH NEAR-RECORD TO PERHAPS RECORD- WARMTH
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.
- THE ONLY REAL "FORECAST CHALLENGE" TO SPEAK OF IN THE NEAR
TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY AND PREVENT
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH.
- THE ENTIRE 7-DAY REMAINS VOID OF ANY OFFICIAL RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE AT LEAST HINTS THAT A SOMEWHAT-
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND BEARS WATCHING FOR
VERY LIGHT/MINIMAL PRECIP POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
AS OF 2PM CST, ENTIRE REGION REMAINS DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY SW TO W LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, COMBINED WITH STEADY
DOWNSLOPING SW-W FLOW, IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REALLY SPIKE
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER EXTREME W PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. IN FACT, LATEST TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER
70S IN THESE AREAS, AND EVEN WARMER MID TO UPPER 70S LIE JUST A
LITTLE FURTHER W. FORTUNATELY, THE WARMTH IS COMING WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT WIND MAGNITUDE, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
PLEASANTLY LOW. THIS IS OFTEN NOT THE CASE CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NRLY LATE TONIGHT AND BRING IN SOME NOTICEABLY COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LATEST FORECAST OF MID
50S TO LOWER 60S IS STILL A SOLID 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
AND ONCE AGAIN, THE BRUNT OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE VOID OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND (ONLY 5-10 MPH).
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, STILL LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - EITHER IN THE FORM OF STRATUS
OR EVEN FOG - TO PUSH IN FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT SOME POINT
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND "MESS" WITH TEMPERATURES.
FWIW, LATEST DETERMINISTIC EC IS A LITTLE MORE "VEERED" WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW, WHICH COULD SPARE AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
(WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE W HALF) FROM THE STRATUS/FOG, THOUGH
OTHER GUIDANCE (SUCH AS, NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE NAM) ARE FURTHER
W AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE FOG/STRATUS. THESE SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL POCKETS OF MOISTURE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN,
ESP 2-3+ DAYS OUT, AS SMALL CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT MIXING POTENTIAL AT A TIME WHEN THE SUN
ANGLE IS AT ITS LOWEST. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SUBSTANTIAL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN 1-3K FT AGL THANKS TO WELL-
ESTABLISHED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (ADVECTED OFF THE FRONT RANGE)
THAT CAN FURTHER COMPLICATE THE PICTURE. SO...WE'RE LOOKING AT
EITHER MOST SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH, OR SUBSTANTIAL
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AND COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPS...OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE FROM
W TO E IN THE REGION. REGARDLESS, TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL COMPARED TO WHAT THEY CAN BE THIS TIME OF YEAR. FWIW,
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST/NBM HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE EVEN IF THE STRATUS/FOG DON'T MATERIALIZE
GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/MIXING. SO RECORD WARMTH ON CHRISTMAS
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY, BUT STILL QUITE MILD.
FRIDAY, THOUGH, CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER. IN FACT, LATEST NBM
JUMPED TEMPS A SOLID 3-5 DEGREES, WHICH NOW PLACES IT AS THE DAY
WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK - IN BOTH LOW
AND HIGH TEMPS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE IN LATEST GUIDANCE
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND - MOST LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD BRING A SOLID 20-25 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WHICH SOUNDS "EXTREME",
BUT REALLY IT'S JUST BRINGING US BACK TO "NORMAL". CAN'T TOTALLY
RULE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT LATEST 50 MEMBER EPS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES
(10-20%) FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE (>0.01"), SO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT OFFICIALLY REMAINS DRY. BOTH EPS AND GEFS INDICATE
ANOTHER BUMP IN TEMPS IN TIME FOR NEW YEARS, THEN ANOTHER MODEST
COOL DOWN FOR FIRST FEW DAYS OF 2026. SIGNAL FOR ANY SORT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN AT
LEAST THE 7-10 DAY RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW MAINLY HIGH BASE CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA,
BECOMING GENERALLY MORE DENSE IN TIME. CEILING ACROSS THE PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COME ANYWHERE NEAR OR LESS THAN VFR
CATEGORIES (CEILINGS >15,000FT). WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES, STARING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION, LATER VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING. NO
PRECIPITATION OR OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- REGARDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARM TEMPS DEC 24-26:
ALTHOUGH NEAR-RECORD TO POSSIBLY RECORD-WARMTH IS STILL
FORECAST FOR DEC. 24-26 (BOTH HIGH TEMPS AND WARM LOW/MINIMUM
TEMPS), PARTICULARLY HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC. 24-25 CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY TREND COOLER, OWING TO THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY THAT
SHALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND/OR LIGHT WINDS/LIMITED MIXING LIMITS
AFTERNOON HEATING POTENTIAL. WE'RE ESSENTIALLY AT SOLAR MINIMUM,
SO IT JUST DOESN'T TAKE MUCH TO THROW A POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH
OFF TRACK. WITH THAT SAID, FRIDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE
WARMER DAYS OF THE WEEK AND NOW LIES WITHIN REACH FOR BOTH
RECORD HIGHS AND LOWS AT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS.
BELOW IS WHERE OUR LATEST FORECAST VS. EXISTING RECORDS STAND
FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS, THE TWO NWS-MAINTAINED
SITES FOR WHICH WE ISSUE OFFICIAL RECORD EVENT REPORTS
(RERGRI/RERHSI). PLEASE NOTE THAT * INDICATES THAT OUR FORECAST
WOULD TIE OR BREAK AN EXISTING RECORD:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 26: 64 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 64*
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 59
DECEMBER 26: 65 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 65*
_________________________________________________________
RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 34 IN 1936 | FORECAST: 32
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1931 | FORECAST: 39*
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 33 IN 2005,1955 | FORECAST: 33*
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 40*
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...STUMP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
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