864
FXUS63 KGID 231019
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
419 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- IN TERMS OF WINTRY PRECIP CHANCES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ETC.
(THE "USUAL" HIGHER IMPACT THREATS THIS TIME OF YEAR), THE
7-DAY REMAINS REMARKABLY QUIET/INACTIVE. IN FACT, THERE ARE
STILL NO OFFICIAL PRECIP CHANCES AT ALL.
- THE ONLY HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEATHER CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT (PERHAPS DENSE ON AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED BASIS) BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOST FAVORING
THE LATE NIGHT-MORNING HOURS BUT POSSIBLY TRYING TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOONS FOR SOME. COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281
ARE MOST FAVORED FOR POTENIAL FOG ISSUES.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
HOLD READINGS DOWN FROM WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN RECORD TERRITORY
FOR ESPECIALLY THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS), SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL NONETHELESS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
WE'LL THEN FLIP A SWITCH TO NOTICEABLY COLDER (BUT NOT
UNUSUALLY COLD) READINGS SUNDAY-MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES TO 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE (IF ANY):
- ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, WE'VE OFFICIALLY
INTRODUCED FOG POTENTIAL (PATCHY/AREAS) TO OUR FORECAST FOR
PRIMARILY COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281 FOR PARTS OF WED-
THURS. THESE FOG CONCERNS HAVE ALSO BEEN INTRODUCED TO OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
- CERTAINLY NOT "HIGH IMPACT", BUT SOME MODEST FLUCTUATIONS
CONTINUE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. MOST NOTABLY, FORECAST
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS) HAVE COME DOWN ANOTHER 3-6
DEGREES MOST AREAS, AND SUNDAY-MONDAY HAVE ALSO TRENDED
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER BEHIND OUR NEXT COLD FRONT (ALBEIT NOT
OVERLY COLD...JUST CLOSER TO LATE-DECEMBER "NORMALS" WITH
HIGHS 30S-LOW 40S).
-- BRIEF HIGHLIGHTS/UNCERTAINTIES OF DAYS 3-7 (THURSDAY-MONDAY):
BEYOND THE ALREADY-MENTIONED FOG CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY, THE MAIN
(AND CURRENTLY MINOR) ISSUES ARE:
1) COULD AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MENTION EVENTUALLY BE
NEEEDED FOR MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT? MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL LOOKS
VERY UNLIKELY.
2) JUST HOW MUCH COLDER WILL SUNDAY BE THAN SATURDAY (CURRENTLY
CALLING FOR ABOUT A 20-DEGREE DROP FROM 50S TO 30S)?...AND HOW
QUICKLY WILL WE REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK?
-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/FIRST 48 HOURS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 AM:
AS EXPECTED, IT'S BEEN A VERY UNEVENTFUL/DRY AND ACTUALLY
SEASONABLY-MILD NIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE BIG
PICTURE ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA CONFIRM A LARGE/SCALE BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. AND EXERTING A NOTABLY MILD/INACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION (PRIMARY EXCEPTION THE WEST
COAST STATES WHERE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING/SNOW THREAT IS
PRONOUNCED). LOCALLY AND BACK DOWN AT THE SURFACE, A FAIRLY
WEAK/INNOCUOUS COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY PASSING
THROUGH OUR CWA FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH., IT'S PASSAGE MARKED BY A
SWITCH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES MAINLY ONLY 5-10 MPH.
UNDER A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND PASSING/THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS,
LOW TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEEN 31-36 DEGREES
MOST SPOTS.
- TODAY:
WHILE REMAINING QUIET/UNEVENTUL, THE "BIG STORY" TODAY WILL BE A
COOL-DOWN VERSUS YESTERDAY...ALBEIT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
OVERHEAD, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...YIELDING PREDOMINANTLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AT THE SURFACE, MODEST BREEZES WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY, BUT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ONLY ROUGHLY 10
MPH/OCCASIONAL GUSTS PERHAPS TO AROUND 15 MPH. TEMPERATURE-WISE,
HIGHS WILL BE MORE UNIFORM THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE CWA, WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 53-59, AND ANY SPOTS POSSIBLY
TAGGING 60 MOST PROBABLY IN OUR KS COUNTIES. INTERESTINGLY, FOR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA TODAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THAT SOARED
INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL BE AT LEAST
10-15 DEGREES COOLER.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, ZERO ISSUES EXPECTED WITH
ONLY CONTINUED (AND LIKELY INCREASED) COVERAGE OF PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AS LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
TIME. HOWEVER, BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-SUNRISE A DECK OF SHALLOW VERY
LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INVADE PRIMARILY THE EASTERN
1/3 TO 1/2 OF OUR CWA...EXPANDING NORTHWARD OUT OF KS. WHILE DO
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS CLOUD MASS TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DRIZZLE, IT'S PROBABLY PRETTY LIKELY THAT AT LEAST LIGHT
FOG WILL ACCOMAPANY ITS ARRIVAL..WITH PERHAPS POCKETS OF
THICKER/DENSER FOR ESPECIALLY ALONG ITS WESTERN FRINGES
(CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESIDE ROUGHLY NEAR HWY 281). WHILE THE
HRRR VISIBILITY PROG IS TYPICALLY-AGGRESSIVE SHOWING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG ISSUES (VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE OR LESS), SREF VISIBILITY
PROBS ARE A BIT MORE RESERVED. FOG IS NOTORIOUSLY FICKLE EVEN AT
SHORTER-TERM FORECAST WINDOWS, OFTEN ENDING UP "WORSE" OR
"BETTER" THAN EXPECTED. SO WHILE DENSE FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
(PERHAPS ADVISORY-WORTHY), THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO "GO THERE" YET...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT HIGH CLOUDS COULD PLAY
AT LEAST A SMALL MITIGATING FACTOR. FOR SURE THOUGH, FELT
STRONGLY ABOUT INTRODUCING FOG POTENTIAL TO OUR BASIC FORECAST
PRODUCTS AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TO OUR HWO.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED 30-34 MOST PLACES.
- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME (CHRISTMAS EVE):
OF GREATEST CONCERN ARE THE MORNING HOURS, AS ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS LIKELY TO BE BLANKETED UNDER VERY LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE AND EVENTUALLY
ADVISORY-WORTHY. HOWEVER, COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THERE
APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE PROMISE THAT LIGHT-BUT-STEADY BREEZES
(ROUGHLY 10 MPH) WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
AS THE DAY WEARS ON, EFFECTIVELY "PUSHING OUT" THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN FACT THE LATEST RAP LOW-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PLOTS AND RELATED HRRR VISIBILITY SUGGESTS
THAT BY NOON ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE VACATED FROM ALL BUT
PERHAPS ARE FAR EAST...THEN FURTHER VACATING EARLY AFTERNOON AND
LEAVING OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER OVERALL-DECREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.
THE NET RESULT IS A CONTINUED, TRICKIER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE LOW
LEVEL "GRUNGE" MANAGES TO VACATE. FOR SURE, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN COOLER EAST/WARMER WEST...BUT JUST HOW SHARP WILL
THAT GRADIENT BE? WHILE 5+ DEGREE ERRORS ARE CERTAINLY ON THE
TABLE, FOR NOW HAVE RUN WITH A MULTI-MODEL BLEND TO YIELD UPPER
50S FAR EAST...LOW-MID 60S CENTRAL AND MID-UPPER 60S (PERHAPS
PUSHING 70?) FAR WEST. PER SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW, AT
LEAST NEAR-RECORD HIGHS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AT GRAND
ISLAND.
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
AS IF WEDNESDAY MORNING'S FOG POTENTIAL/"SEVERITY" ISN'T TRICKY
ENOUGH TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT, WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
MORNING (THURSDAY) BRINGS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND (PERHAPS) ADVISORY-WORTHY LOW VISIBILITIES IN DENSE
FOG. WHILE THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ARE JUST BEYOND HIGHER-
RESOLUTION VISIBILITY MODELS (HRRR/RAP), A PEEK AT THE LATEST
ECMWF VISIBILITY SUGGESTS THAT VERY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA
FROM EAST-TO-WEST...AIDED BY LIGHT BREEZES TURING MORE EASTERLY
WITH TIME. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT COULD BE A VERY FOGGY
START TO CHRISTMAS MORNING (AGAIN, PARTICULARLY EAST).
OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TONIGHT
(MOST AREAS BOTTOMING OUT LOW 30S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
AS OF 2PM CST, ENTIRE REGION REMAINS DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY SW TO W LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, COMBINED WITH STEADY
DOWNSLOPING SW-W FLOW, IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REALLY SPIKE
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER EXTREME W PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. IN FACT, LATEST TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER
70S IN THESE AREAS, AND EVEN WARMER MID TO UPPER 70S LIE JUST A
LITTLE FURTHER W. FORTUNATELY, THE WARMTH IS COMING WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT WIND MAGNITUDE, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
PLEASANTLY LOW. THIS IS OFTEN NOT THE CASE CONSIDERING THE
MAGNITUDE OF WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NRLY LATE TONIGHT AND BRING IN SOME NOTICEABLY COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LATEST FORECAST OF MID
50S TO LOWER 60S IS STILL A SOLID 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
AND ONCE AGAIN, THE BRUNT OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE VOID OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND (ONLY 5-10 MPH).
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, STILL LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - EITHER IN THE FORM OF STRATUS
OR EVEN FOG - TO PUSH IN FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AT SOME POINT
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND "MESS" WITH TEMPERATURES.
FWIW, LATEST DETERMINISTIC EC IS A LITTLE MORE "VEERED" WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW, WHICH COULD SPARE AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
(WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY BE W HALF) FROM THE STRATUS/FOG, THOUGH
OTHER GUIDANCE (SUCH AS, NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE NAM) ARE FURTHER
W AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE FOG/STRATUS. THESE SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL POCKETS OF MOISTURE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN,
ESP 2-3+ DAYS OUT, AS SMALL CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT MIXING POTENTIAL AT A TIME WHEN THE SUN
ANGLE IS AT ITS LOWEST. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SUBSTANTIAL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN 1-3K FT AGL THANKS TO WELL-
ESTABLISHED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (ADVECTED OFF THE FRONT RANGE)
THAT CAN FURTHER COMPLICATE THE PICTURE. SO...WE'RE LOOKING AT
EITHER MOST SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR-RECORD WARMTH, OR SUBSTANTIAL
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AND COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPS...OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE FROM
W TO E IN THE REGION. REGARDLESS, TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL COMPARED TO WHAT THEY CAN BE THIS TIME OF YEAR. FWIW,
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST/NBM HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE EVEN IF THE STRATUS/FOG DON'T MATERIALIZE
GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/MIXING. SO RECORD WARMTH ON CHRISTMAS
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY, BUT STILL QUITE MILD.
FRIDAY, THOUGH, CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER. IN FACT, LATEST NBM
JUMPED TEMPS A SOLID 3-5 DEGREES, WHICH NOW PLACES IT AS THE DAY
WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK - IN BOTH LOW
AND HIGH TEMPS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE IN LATEST GUIDANCE
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND - MOST LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD BRING A SOLID 20-25 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGHS FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WHICH SOUNDS "EXTREME",
BUT REALLY IT'S JUST BRINGING US BACK TO "NORMAL". CAN'T TOTALLY
RULE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT LATEST 50 MEMBER EPS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES
(10-20%) FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE (>0.01"), SO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT OFFICIALLY REMAINS DRY. BOTH EPS AND GEFS INDICATE
ANOTHER BUMP IN TEMPS IN TIME FOR NEW YEARS, THEN ANOTHER MODEST
COOL DOWN FOR FIRST FEW DAYS OF 2026. SIGNAL FOR ANY SORT OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN AT
LEAST THE 7-10 DAY RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW MAINLY HIGH BASE CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA,
BECOMING GENERALLY MORE DENSE IN TIME. CEILING ACROSS THE PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COME ANYWHERE NEAR OR LESS THAN VFR
CATEGORIES (CEILINGS >15,000FT). WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES, STARING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SWINGING
AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION, LATER VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING. NO
PRECIPITATION OR OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- REGARDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARM TEMPS DEC 24-26:
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH AT
GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS ON CHRISTMAS DAY HAVE CONTINUED TO FADE
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS KEEPING THINGS COOLER.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST NEAR-RECORD WARMTH STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR
WED. DEC. 24TH, AND COULD BE EVEN MORE LIKELY ON FRI. DEC.
26TH.
BELOW IS WHERE OUR LATEST FORECAST VS. EXISTING RECORDS STAND
FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS, THE TWO NWS-MAINTAINED
SITES FOR WHICH WE ISSUE OFFICIAL RECORD EVENT REPORTS
(RERGRI/RERHSI). PLEASE NOTE THAT * INDICATES THAT OUR LATEST
FORECAST WOULD TIE OR BREAK AN EXISTING RECORD:
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 62
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 54
DECEMBER 26: 64 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 64*
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 61
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 55
DECEMBER 26: 65 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 65*
_________________________________________________________
- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 34 IN 1936 | FORECAST: 32
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 32
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1931 | FORECAST: 38*
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 33 IN 2005,1955 | FORECAST: 32
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 38*
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...STUMP
CLIMATE...NWS HASTINGS
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