692
FXUS63 KGID 240632
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..SHORT TERM UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE TOMORROW NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY).
- DESPITE THE FOG, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A COOLDOWN ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE
ABNORMALLY COLD FOR LATE DECEMBER.
- THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW (OR ANY PRECIP FOR THAT
MATTER) REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE REST OF 2025.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA:
WILL GO INTO MORE DETAIL IN THE "MAIN" MORNING FORECAST
DISCUSSION IN A FEW HOURS, BUT FOR NOW THE MAIN THING IS THAT:
GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ONGOING WITHIN/NEAR OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CWA ALREADY, AND INSISTENCE OF VARIOUS MODELS
(INCLUDING HRRR VISIBILITY) THAT FOG (SOME SURELY DENSE) WILL
CONTINUE GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD/WESTWARD INTO MORE AND
MORE OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY VALID THROUGH NOON/12 PM TODAY FOR
ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES ALONG THE EXTREME WESTERN/NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR CWA (COUNTIES WHERE FOG IS LEAST LIKELY TO REACH
AND/OR BE TRULY DENSE).
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY DEFER
THIS POTENTIAL ISSUANCE TO LATER SHIFTS AND TAKE THINGS "ONE
ADVISORY AT A TIME".
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH, BUT IT WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO DERAIL ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WILL RESULT
IN THE 9TH-CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
THIS RELATIVELY WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
LINGERING HIGH CLOUD COVER DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
DENSE/WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BECOME, BUT A A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA (FAVORING
SOUTH AND EAST).
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LINGERING CLOUD
COVER MAY RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NEB/KANSAS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. MOST OF OUR AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S AND 60S. BUT JUST TO OUR WEST COULD
REACH THE MID 70S, AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA COULD STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOG TO
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS RANGE, DETAILS ON FOG ARE MORE UNCERTAIN,
BUT ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE DENSE FOG. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST, BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON THE LATEST NBM...DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS, ITS HARD TO COMPLAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LIGHT WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
FRIDAY IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AIDED
BY WSW WINDS AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN US/CANADA. IN FACT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS
EXCEED 70 DEGREES (25-50% CHANCE...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST)!
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
BREEZIER NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THIS
FRONT ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES STILL REACH THE 50S/60S SATURDAY,
BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER (UPPER 20S AND 30S). GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON SUNDAY, BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR ANYTHING
ACCUMULATING IS STILL LOW (10% OR LESS).
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER
AND MORE "UP AND DOWN" IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. AS A
RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE TREND REMAINS
PRETTY LOW. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE, THE 10TH
PERCENTILE NBM HAS A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES FOR
KGRI...WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS 60 DEGREES. A 45 DEGREE
SPREAD!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES BY 12Z. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO KEAR WHICH
LOOKS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS/FOG, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR BELOW 1 MILE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT HAVE
OPTED TO GO ON THE WORSE/LOWER VISIBILITY/CEILINGS SIDE OF
GUIDANCE (SIMILAR TO KGRI). THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DURATION OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE, SO HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL/TIME- FRAME WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INSTEAD OF A PREVAILING GROUP. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS, FIRST AT KEAR THEN KGRI, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 17-18Z. AFTER FOG/STRATUS CLEARS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND IFR/LIFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
JUST PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 53
DECEMBER 26: 64 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 67*
DECEMBER 27: 64 IN 1937 | FORECAST: 60
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 54
DECEMBER 26: 65 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 68*
DECEMBER 27: 64 IN 1937 | FORECAST: 60
_________________________________________________________
- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 34 IN 1936 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 32
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1931 | FORECAST: 36
DECEMBER 27: 34 IN 1905 | FORECAST: 32
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 33 IN 2005,1955 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 32
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 36
DECEMBER 27: 37 IN 1957 | FORECAST: 34
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
TODAY FOR NEZ041-047>049-061>064-073>077-083.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ084>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
TODAY FOR KSZ005-017.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...DAVIS
CLIMATE...NWS HASTINGS
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