044
FXUS63 KGID 241103
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
503 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE ONLY REAL FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS IS
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS OF FOG/DENSE FOG...ONE
ALREADY UNDERWAY THIS MORNING, AND THEN ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY DAYTIME (POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURS EVENING?)
THE VAST MAJORITY OF FOG SHOULD FOCUS WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
TO 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
- THANKS TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG LOW CLOUD COVER/FOG
PERSISTS WITHIN PARTS OF OUR AREA, AND ALSO HOW FAR WEST IT
EXPANDS/HOW FAR EAST IT ERODES, TEMPERATURES TODAY-TOMORROW
WILL SURELY CONTINUE TO BE A "FORECAST ADVENTURE", WITH SOME
CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ESPECIALLY FAR WEST COUNTIES.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRI-SAT WILL FEATURE FEWER FOG
ISSUES/MORE SUN AND THUS THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S (POSSIBLY EVEN BREAKING
DEC. 26TH RECORDS ON FRIDAY).
- A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER (BUT NOT OVERLY-COLD) TEMPS FOR
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-MONDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 30S).
- ALTHOUGH OUR ENTIRE 7-DAY REMAINS VOID OF ANY OFFICIAL PRECIP
CHANCES AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK HINTS THAT A
QUICK HIT OF LIGHT SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE SAT NIGHT-
SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES TO 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE:
- ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN "EXACT" TEMPS IS STILL RUNNING BELOW
AVERAGE EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
EXACTLY WHAT LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY) HAVE DROPPED ANOTHER 2-5
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS, WITH ESPECIALLY MUCH OF OUR NOW
EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 (IF AT ALL).
- CONFIDENCE IN "FOG ISSUES" ONLY CONTINUES TO GROW FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST.
-- BRIEF HIGHLIGHTS/UNCERTAINTIES OF DAYS 3-7 (FRIDAY-TUESDAY):
THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE INCLUDE:
1) HOW WARM WILL FRIDAY-SATURDAY GET ONCE WE (HOPEFULLY) LOSE
THE FOG/LOW CLOUD CONCERNS?
2) COULD LATER FORECASTS NEED TO FEATURE SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY AM (LATEST
ECMWF MORE SUGGESTIVE OF THIS THAN THE GFS).
-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE DATA DUE TO BEING
MASKED/COVERED BY APPRECIABLE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS, SURFACE OBS
CONFIRM LOW-LEVEL MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VISIBILITY PROGS
CONFIRM THAT A SHIELD OF VERY LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
(DENSE IN SPOTS) HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA) SINCE LAST
EVENING. VISIBILITY HAS AT LEAST SPORADICALLY FALLEN INTO THE
NEAR-DENSE TO DENSE (1/2 TO 1/4 MILE) RANGE AT VARIOUS AIRPORT
SENSORS INCLUDING BELOIT KS AND HEBRON/HASTINGS/GRAND
ISLAND/AURORA/YORK ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE.
AS A RESULT, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (ISSUED BACK AROUND MIDNIGHT)
CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA (ALL EXCEPT A
FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES WHERE FOG IS LEAST
FAVORED TO REACH/DEVELOP INTO. HOURLY TEMP TRENDS ARE ALREADY
PROVING TRICKY, WITH AREAS UNDER THE THICKEST LOW CLOUDS WARMING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES, WHILE FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN SITES SUCH AS
ORD/LEXINGTON HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S.
- TODAY:
OBVIOUSLY THE FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES THIS MORNING ARE BY FAR THE
MAIN CONCERN. LEANING HEAVILY ON LOW-LEVEL RH/VISIBILITY
GUIDANCE FROM RAP/HRRR, THE VERY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG SHOULD
HOLD FIRM OR CONTINUE EXPANDING INTO MUCH OF ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BEFORE
SLOWLY/GRADUALLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL/SURFACE BREEZES (ALBEIT
LIGHT) TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE
"GRUNGE". NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LIMITED POCKETS OF DENSE
FOG COULD LINGER SLIGHTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT NOON EXPIRATION
TIME OF THE ADVISORY, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA SHOULD
SEE A FOG-FREE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. FOR
TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE, SO TOOK A
"BEST STAB" WITH A MULTI-MODEL BLEND, YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS
MID 50S TO LOW 60S MOST AREAS, BUT AT LEAST MID-UPPER 60S IN A
FEW FAR WESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS DAWSON/VALLEY.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
WHILE MUCH OF THE EVENING (PRE-MIDNIGHT) SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
LOW CLOUDS/FOG POTENTIAL, THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS WILL BRING THESE
ELEMENTS RIGHT BACK INTO PLAY FOR ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN 1/3 TO
POSSIBLY 1/2 OF OUR CWA AS LOW LEVEL BREEZES REMAIN LIGHT AND
TURN MORE EASTERLY (UPSLOPE). DENSE FOG AND THE ASSOCIATED NEED
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY IS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE, BUT WILL DEFER
TO OTHER SHIFTS TO ADDRESS THIS ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY
EXPIRES. LOW TEMPS AIMED LOW-MID 30S MOST PLACES.
- CHRISTMAS DAY/THURSDAY:
WOW HAS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DROPPED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS! THANKS TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA
LIKELY BEING SOCKED IN UNDER WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/AND OR FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING BUT LINGERING
IN ESPECIALLY EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON), THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL NOT GET NEARLY AS WARM AS ONCE
EXPECTED. AGAIN, TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT OVERLY HIGH, BUT
THE SAME MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED FOR TODAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST
NOW YIELDS MOST OF OUR EASTERN 2/3RDS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S, BUT WITH MILDER UPPER 50S TO EVEN A FEW LOW 60S FAR
WEST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PERVASIVE (ALBEIT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PLENTY OF HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS TOO.
- THURSDAY NIGHT:
STILL PLENTY OF QUESTION MARKS REGARDING WHETHER FOG REMAINS IN
ISSUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT "IN THEORY" LIGHT WESTERLY
BREEZES SHOULD SCOUR IT OUT/SHUNT IT EAST OF OUR CWA ESPECIALLY
POST-MIDNIGHT. THIS OBVIOUSLY BEARS WATCHING THOUGH, AS THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR THIS EXPECTATION TO CHANGE. LOW TEMPS CURRENTLY
AIMED MID-UPPER 30S MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH, BUT IT WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO DERAIL ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WILL RESULT
IN THE 9TH-CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
THIS RELATIVELY WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
LINGERING HIGH CLOUD COVER DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
DENSE/WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BECOME, BUT A A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA (FAVORING
SOUTH AND EAST).
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LINGERING CLOUD
COVER MAY RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NEB/KANSAS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. MOST OF OUR AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S AND 60S. BUT JUST TO OUR WEST COULD
REACH THE MID 70S, AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA COULD STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOG TO
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS RANGE, DETAILS ON FOG ARE MORE UNCERTAIN,
BUT ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE DENSE FOG. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LINGERING CLOUDS.
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST, BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON THE LATEST NBM...DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS, ITS HARD TO COMPLAIN
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LIGHT WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
FRIDAY IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AIDED
BY WSW WINDS AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN US/CANADA. IN FACT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS
EXCEED 70 DEGREES (25-50% CHANCE...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST)!
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
BREEZIER NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THIS
FRONT ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES STILL REACH THE 50S/60S SATURDAY,
BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER (UPPER 20S AND 30S). GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FRONT ON SUNDAY, BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR ANYTHING
ACCUMULATING IS STILL LOW (10% OR LESS).
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER
AND MORE "UP AND DOWN" IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. AS A
RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE TREND REMAINS
PRETTY LOW. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE, THE 10TH
PERCENTILE NBM HAS A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEGREES FOR
KGRI...WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS 60 DEGREES. A 45 DEGREE
SPREAD!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES BY 12Z. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO KEAR WHICH
LOOKS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS/FOG, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR BELOW 1 MILE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT HAVE
OPTED TO GO ON THE WORSE/LOWER VISIBILITY/CEILINGS SIDE OF
GUIDANCE (SIMILAR TO KGRI). THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DURATION OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE, SO HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL/TIME- FRAME WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INSTEAD OF A PREVAILING GROUP. FOG/STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS, FIRST AT KEAR THEN KGRI, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 17-18Z. AFTER FOG/STRATUS CLEARS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND IFR/LIFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
JUST PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- REGARDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARM TEMPS DEC 24-27:
WHILE DAILY RECORDS FOR WARMTH (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS) COULD AT
LEAST BE APPROACHED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT NOW
APPEARS FRIDAY HOLDS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS ACTUALLY
SETTING NEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS (FOR DEC. 26TH).
BELOW IS WHERE OUR LATEST FORECAST VS. EXISTING RECORDS STANDS
FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS, THE TWO NWS-MAINTAINED
SITES FOR WHICH WE ISSUE OFFICIAL RECORD EVENT REPORTS
(RERGRI/RERHSI). PLEASE NOTE THAT * INDICATES THAT OUR LATEST
FORECAST OR OBSERVED VALUE WOULD TIE OR BREAK AN EXISTING
DAILY RECORD:
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 60
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 49
DECEMBER 26: 64 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 67*
DECEMBER 27: 64 IN 1937 | FORECAST: 61
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 59
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 50
DECEMBER 26: 65 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 67*
DECEMBER 27: 64 IN 1937 | FORECAST: 62
_________________________________________________________
- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 34 IN 1936 | OBSERVED: 30
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1931 | FORECAST: 36
DECEMBER 27: 34 IN 1905 | FORECAST: 36*
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 33 IN 2005,1955 | OBSERVED: 35*
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 33
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 37
DECEMBER 27: 37 IN 1957 | FORECAST: 38*
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ041-047>049-
061>064-073>077-083>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...DAVIS
CLIMATE...NWS HASTINGS
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