193
FXUS63 KGID 242353
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
553 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT UNTIL NOON
CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY) FOR COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF HWY-183.
- LOW-LEVEL STRATUS/FOG COULD KEEP HIGHS FROM LEAVING THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S BEYOND A FEW WESTERN LYING LOCATIONS CHRISTMAS.
- THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY (MID 60S TO
LOW 70S) WITH A COLD FRONT TANKING HIGHS FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY (FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S).
- THE 7-DAY FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH A LOW-END CHANCE
(<20%) FOR NON ACCUMULATING, LIGHT SNOW ACROSS A FEW
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
NOW THAT THE FOG AND MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HAS MOVED OFF AND
AWAY FOR THE DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE ON THEIR WAY INTO THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AMONG
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER (~1004MB) SLIDING
DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES WILL STEER WINDS TOWARDS A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS GENTLE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARING THE SATURATION DEWPOINTS (UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S) WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONDENSATION AND IN TURN FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT.
DENSE FOG LOOKS MORE THAN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS GIVEN
THE LATEST AND STILL CONSISTENT GUIDANCE BETWEEN MOST HIGH-RES SHORT-
TERM MODELS. THE BIGGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST WILL THIS
PATCH OF DENSE FOG MAY TRAVEL. AS OF NOW, WE PROJECT THAT A BANK OF
FOG WILL SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST BETWEEN MAINLY 10PM AND 8AM. THIS
FOG COULD SPREAD WEST OF HWY-80 AROUND TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
WEST OF HWY-281 AROUND TO AFTER 5AM. CONFIDENCE IN FOG DROPS OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF HWY-183. THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG FOG WILL STICK AROUND BEFORE MIXING OUT.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS FOG CLEARING AROUND NOON, ALTHOUGH THE HRRR TRIES
TO KEEP SOME FOG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL NOON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR COUNTIES
WEST OF HWY-183 AND INCLUDING BUFFALO COUNTY.
THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BEYOND THE FOG
POTENTIAL HAS BEEN FINE TUNING THE HIGHS. DESPITE ONLY BEING ONE
DAY OUT, THE LATEST NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SHOWS A SPREAD OF 5-10
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST SPREAD DRAPED ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF (AREAS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DENSE FOG). SEVERAL FACTORS
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WIDE SPREAD OF UNCERTAINTY. CURRENTLY, THE
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WOULD IN GENERAL FAVOR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE 60S AT THE
SURFACE, HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS/FOG BLOCKING OUT THE SUN FOR A
MAJORITY IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM LEAVING THE UPPER
40S AND 50S FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE AREA. IN ALL LIKELINESS, A
FEW OF OUR WESTERN AREAS MAY OVERACHIEVE EXPECTATION WITH OUR EASTERN
AREAS THE MOST LIKELY TO UNDERACHIEVE IN TERMS OF HIGHS.
THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER, MENTIONED EARLIER, WILL PASS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD HELP CLEAR OUT CLOUDS AND TURN THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW
BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY. THE RETURN OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW (ADIABATIC WARMING) WITH THE ADDITION OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARMING
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S TO EVEN THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
KANSAS PLACES. CLOUDS RETURNING FRIDAY EVENING WITH YET ANOTHER
BROAD (1004MB) SURFACE LOW PASSAGE WILL STEER SOUTHERLY WINDS
HEADING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SETTLE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE IN THE LONG-RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PLUMMET AROUND 25-35 DEGREES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
(HIGHS GOING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S). IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD SPELL, FAR BREEZIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD
GUST UP TOP 30-40MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.
FOR THOSE QUESTIONING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY
OCCUR, A LOW-END CHANCE (<20%) FOR LIGHT AND NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW
COULD MATERIALIZE FOR A FEW NORTHWESTERN PLACES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
PASSING COMPRESSED AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME MID-LEVEL ASSENT (VORTICITY
ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF A PV ANOMALY). AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, WE
WOULD SUGGEST FOR ONE TO NOT GET THEIR HOPES UP QUITE YET AS THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR A FORMAL
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
BEYOND SUNDAY, DOMINATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS. WIDENING CONFIDENCE RANGES FROM DIVERGING ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES MORE IN QUESTION TO HOW THEY MAY REBOUND
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
ITS LARGELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG,
EXCEPT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP SOONER THAN
LAST NIGHT, AND LAST LONGER INTO THE DAY CHRISTMAS DAY.
FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP AND
SLOWLY SPREAD WEST ALREADY. ITS NOT A QUESTION OF IF, BUT WHEN,
AND WE EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO
LIFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT GRAND ISLAND AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER AT
KEARNEY. IN BOTH CASES, 1/4SM TYPE VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST INTO MID-MORNING SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE THERE AFTER, AS WILL CEILINGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT
THINGS MAY NOT TOTALLY CLEAR AT EITHER AIRPORT. AS WITH MOST
FOG EVENTS, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN GENERAL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- REGARDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARM TEMPS DEC 24-27:
WHILE DAILY RECORDS FOR WARMTH (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS) COULD AT
LEAST BE APPROACHED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT NOW
APPEARS FRIDAY HOLDS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS ACTUALLY
SETTING NEW DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS (FOR DEC. 26TH).
BELOW IS WHERE OUR LATEST FORECAST VS. EXISTING RECORDS STANDS
FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS, THE TWO NWS-MAINTAINED
SITES FOR WHICH WE ISSUE OFFICIAL RECORD EVENT REPORTS
(RERGRI/RERHSI). PLEASE NOTE THAT * INDICATES THAT OUR LATEST
FORECAST OR OBSERVED VALUE WOULD TIE OR BREAK AN EXISTING
DAILY RECORD:
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 64 IN 2021 | FORECAST: 61
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | FORECAST: 50
DECEMBER 26: 64 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 68*
DECEMBER 27: 64 IN 1937 | FORECAST: 61
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 66 IN 1933 | FORECAST: 61
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1950 | FORECAST: 50
DECEMBER 26: 65 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 69*
DECEMBER 27: 64 IN 1937 | FORECAST: 62
_________________________________________________________
- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 24: 34 IN 1936 | OBSERVED: 30
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 34*
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1931 | FORECAST: 38*
DECEMBER 27: 34 IN 1905 | FORECAST: 38*
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 24: 33 IN 2005,1955 | OBSERVED: 35*
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1922 | FORECAST: 34*
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 38*
DECEMBER 27: 37 IN 1957 | FORECAST: 38*
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...MORITZ
CLIMATE...NWS HASTINGS
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