619
FXUS63 KGID 032323
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
523 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, POTENTIALLY LOCALLY DENSE, POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, MAINLY E/NE OF THE TRI-CITIES.
- MILD (EVEN WARM, AT TIMES) AND DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, DETAILS ON AMOUNTS/IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MORNING'S FOG/STRATUS AS
RETREATED INTO NE NEBRASKA AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LATEST HI-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL EXPAND AFTER SUNSET - OWING TO
DIURNAL COOLING AND BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE WESTERLY WINDS
REALLY HELP SCOUR OUT THIS MOISTURE FOR US THIS AFTERNOON, SO
LOSING THAT COMPONENT, ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
INHERENT TO RETURN TO SRLY FLOW, CONCEPTUALLY SHOULD FACILITATE
THIS EXPANSION. WE'LL SEE HOW FAR W/SW IT EXPANDS, BUT LATEST
TRENDS FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND ESP E OF HWY 281 AND N OF HWY 6 OR
THE STATE LINE TO BE MOST AT RISK FOR FOG. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING, SOME OF THIS FOG, ESP. ALONG THE FRINGES WHERE COOLING
IS GREATEST, COULD BE DENSE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR-SFC
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FACTORS AGAINST WIDESPREAD *DENSE* FOG.
ONCE STRATUS/FOG ERODES SUNDAY AM (LIKELY A BIT QUICKER THAN
THIS MORNING), CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY MILD, IF
NOT WARM, TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS - THANKS TO SWRLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE OVER DRY (AND SEASONABLY
WARM) GROUND. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEG, ESP. W/SW
OF THE TRI-CITIES, AS THESE AREAS WILL BE OF LOWEST RISK FOR AM
STRATUS, AND MORNING LOWS WILL BE WARMEST (HIGH CLOUDS, STEADY
BREEZE). NOW HAVE HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG
AND W OF HWY 183, AND CERTAINLY WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME LOW 70S.
WILL BE AN EXCELLENT DAY TO TAKE DOWN THOSE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
LIGHTS. SIDE NOTE - BOTH PRE AND POST HOLIDAY HAS BEEN AS
GENEROUS AS I CAN REMEMBER IN TERMS OF PLEASANT TEMPS FOR SET UP
AND TAKE DOWN OF OUTDOOR HOLIDAY LIGHTS/DECORATIONS.
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AND MID WEEK
THANKS TO PERSISTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THESE
DAYS DON'T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM AS SUNDAY, BUT STILL QUITE
MILD IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN THANKS TO LARGE- SCALE WESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERALIZED TREND, BUT SPECIFICS - SUCH
AS POTENTIAL AMOUNTS/IMPACTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND JUST
HOW MUCH COOLER WE BECOME - REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
STRATUS TO THE NORTHEAST OF GRI/EAR IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY REACHING GRI BY AROUND 06Z. THE CHANCE FOR
THIS TO IMPACT GRI (60%) IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN AT EAR
(20%), THEREFORE ONLY MAINTAINED A FEW010 GROUP AT EAR.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT ANY STRATUS/FOG OUT OF
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...MANGELS
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