747
FXUS63 KGID 042215
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD/WARM (THOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
THE RECORD-SETTING HIGHS TODAY) TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
- PATTERN TURNS COLDER AND POTENTIALLY MORE WINTRY LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES
AT LEAST A 40-50% CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW AND WIND TO AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AS HINTED AT YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES HAVE "OVERACHIEVED"
FORECAST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT WEAK, BUT EFFICIENT, GIVEN SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME RECENT INCREASE IN
HIGH, THIN CLOUDS. NEARLY PERFECT DAY FOR EARLY JANUARY (UNLESS
YOU LOVE WINTER), AND IT EVEN LANDED ON A WEEKEND!
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH MIDWEEK,
FEATURING SWRLY TO ZONAL MID-UPPER FLOW AND MOSTLY SRLY TO WRLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW - FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING WARMTH ATOP
RELATIVELY WARM/DRY GROUND LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM. THERE WILL BE A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE THE ZONAL FLOW, BUT THESE
WILL BE MOSTLY WEAK, PACIFIC-BASED, AND LACKING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MON EVE/NIGHT,
AND ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER ONE TUE PM. NEITHER OF THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING ANYTHING MORE THAN PASSING CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS
ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. ONE THING TO NOTE,
EVEN THOUGH MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER (PERHAPS HAS
MUCH AS 5-10 DEG), IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS AT ONLY 5-10 MPH.
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE W, AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION DAY, AND COULD
SEE FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA - DEPENDING ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. SE ZONES COULD REMAIN MILD(ISH) AND
RUN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, WHEREAS FAR N/NW ZONES MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 40S AMIDST LOW CLOUDS AND CHILLY NE WIND.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, MOST OF THE MAJOR
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A GENERAL DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND AT LEAST SOME
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS TRANSITION PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MAGNITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FOR
INSTANCE, LATEST EPS GIVES MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
LEAST A 40-50% CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW - WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DECENTLY GUSTY WINDS. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE GEFS GIVES ONLY 10-20% CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW,
AND NOT AS MUCH WIND. THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO STEM FROM
DIFFERING IDEAS ON HOW QUICKLY A SYSTEM INTENSIFIES OVER THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE EC FASTER/FURTHER W COMPARED TO GFS.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT SPECIFICS AND FOR MODEL DATA TO
CHANGE, JUST KNOW THAT FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FEATURE SOME
OF THE MORE IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER WE'VE HAD THUS FAR THIS
SEASON (YES, IT'S A LOW BAR). WITH THE STRONGER EC ALSO COMES
STRONGER WINDS, WITH SEVERAL OF THE EPS MEMBERS GIVING 6HR PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH ON FRIDAY. SO AGAIN, SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES MAY REALLY STRUGGLE BEHIND THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND,
BUT EXACTLY HOW COLD WILL DEPEND ON SNOW COVER FROM FRIDAY'S
SYSTEM. COULD BE SITUATION WHERE HIGHS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND
LOWS DIP INTO AT LEAST THE TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY JUST
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT, BUT SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM. SRLY WINDS 9-13KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME LGT AND VRBL FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH MON AM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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