338
FXUS63 KGID 060430
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1030 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
LIE.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR HASTINGS ON TUESDAY
IS 58 DEGREES, WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 59 IN
1935. GRAND ISLAND IS FORECAST TO FALL SHORT OF ITS RECORD
FOR THE DAY OF 64 (FORECAST IS ALSO 58). UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK. PRECIP ON THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY BE
RAIN...WITH COLDER AIR AND BETTER SNOW CHANCES WORKING THEIR
WAY IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BEEN ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND WHILE NOT AS
WARM AS SUNDAY, TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA ARE SHOWING
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS, WITH A
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE, BUT HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AT
THE SURFACE, THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, WITH THAT UPPER WAVE HELPING
TO PUSH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...BRING A SWITCH TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT SPEEDS
HAVE TOPPED OUT GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO. NO BIG SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS TODAY, WITH THE AT TIMES THICKER CLOUD COVER NOT
DOING US ANY FAVOR...TEMPS WILL END UP TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-
MID 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 60S IN THE WEST. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS REMAIN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS WE SIT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...SPEEDS CONTINUE AROUND 10
MPH. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TUE-WED,
WHICH REMAINS DRY. MODELS SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUING IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH FOCUS
WITH TIME WILL BE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND DISTURBANCES
MAKING THEIR WAY INLAND.
MAIN CONCERN ON TUESDAY LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. WINDS DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AS THE AREA SITS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DRIVE STRONG
WINDS, BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTIER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GUSTS NEAR 20- 25 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ANY TIME THERE ARE WESTERLY WINDS AND SUN...THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH AND TEMPS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH, SO TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT CONCERN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AROUND 20-25 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF A KEARNEY NE TO OSBORNE KS LINE. DID INSERT A
MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE
HWO...THE THE SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR WEST WITH
THE ELEVATED AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE PATTERN WEAKENS A BIT, WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGHING SETS UP OVER PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. THIS
HELPS KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY...AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S-LOW 60S...AND MORE WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN, THOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY BE CREEPING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY.
OVERALL ANOTHER PRETTY NICE DAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD LIES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FINALLY RETURNING, INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW. A COUPLE
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT WILL STATE UPFRONT THERE ARE STILL
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN OUR AREA GETTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW, OR VERY LITTLE OF ANYTHING.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
AREA IS WORKING ITS WAY NEAR THE CA/AZ/MEX BORDER ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN WED NIGHT-THURSDAY ONTO THE PLAINS
AS A LARGER, BROADER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS
REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS OK INTO
ESE KS...BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IT COULD SWING ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST CLIP SERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BIG
QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR NW THAT TRACK IS/PRECIP GETS...THUS
CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE, WITH A SMALL AREA OF 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE
FAR SE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TEMP PROFILE
WOULD LARGELY KEEP THIS PRECIP AS RAIN.
NEXT QUESTION THEN LIES WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE
QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST...PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN
WITH ITS EVOLUTION. THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED BETWEEN
KEEPING THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING A
DEEPER, CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND WOULD IT STAY SOUTH OR CROSS
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AT LEAST BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE GFS
VERSION OF THINGS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES) THIS MORNING
STUCK TO ITS STORY OF NOT BRINGING US A WHOLE LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS SLIDING
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN
FURTHER NORTH/MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OUR AREA GETTING SOME
SNOW...BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS, TRENDING
THINGS A BIT TO THE SOUTH...LESSENING THE POTENTIAL. LOOKING
THAT PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES DROPPED FROM ROUGHLY 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA LAST NIGHT TO CLOSER TO 30-50 PERCENT TODAY (GFS DIDN'T
CHANGE MUCH...STILL AROUND 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF AT LEAST 1
INCH).
IT'S ONLY MONDAY, SO STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS KEEP ON THIS
TRACK OR TREND ANOTHER WAY AS WE GET CLOSER...BOTTOM LINE, STAY
TUNED.
NEXT WEEKEND...
THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT LEAST BRIEFING
RETURNING TO THE REGION. HARD TO HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS THAT FAR OUT, WHEN THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THU-FRI. FOLLOWING HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
40S-50S AND MAINLY 30S ON FRIDAY...WEEKEND HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
30S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (95%) IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO THE WNW TONIGHT, AND WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, GUSTING OVER 20KTS AT TIMES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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