413
FXUS63 KGID 072232
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
432 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON TIMING.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING-1" ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE (10%) IF RAIN TURNS
TO SNOW QUICKER AND/OR SNOW RATES ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
- LIGHT SNOW (1" OR LESS) POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY....
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY OUTSIDE TODAY, WITH NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!). ALOFT THE AREA
IS UNDER ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT, NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL/AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR!
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN/FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOWFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING, A BAND OF RAIN
WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN-
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, WITH MOST OF
THE AREA SEEING RAIN BY MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN WRAPS AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FAVORED TO FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN-SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 0.25-0.5" ARE POSSIBLE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOLER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE REMAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR WITH MODELS RANGING FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON (12Z ECMWF,
NAMNEST), TO THE EVENING (12Z HRRR). TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 DEGREES SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING TO
RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOST SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS FAVORED TO MELT (MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES), THOUGH HEAVIER
RATES OF SNOW COULD OVERCOME THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY THE
LATE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING WILL
LIKELY BE AS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. SNOW COMES TO AN
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW/SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.
MOST AREAS ARE FAVORED TO SEE A TRACE/DUSTING TO 1" OF SNOW, WITH 2"
POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW OR
HEAVIER RATES OF SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER THAN 2"
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AND THE LOCATION IS LOW (10% OR
LESS) GIVEN OVERALL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY
WET/HEAVY/SLUSHY DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR-ABOVE FREEZING
WHEN SNOW FALLS. THOUGH WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HEAVY/SLUSHY NATURE OF THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT/INHIBIT BLOWING SNOW.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS NEAR THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS,
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH
PORTIONS OF ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW.
SATURDAY...
SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT (UNDER 1"). FALLING SNOW COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SUNDAY ONWARDS...
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S-30S. ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER-SEASONABLE
AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THIS
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH CIRRUS BUILDING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING, AS
CEILINGS FALL BELOW 10000FT. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, CEILINGS
MAY FALL TO MVFR, THOUGH A MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
AREA VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING
19-21Z ON THURSDAY. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT FIRST, BUT
BECOME STEADY/WIDESPREAD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE
OPTED TO SHOW THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP TO START THEN A
PREVAILING GROUP WHEN STEADY RAIN IS MOST LIKELY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MID-
LATE THURSDAY MORNING WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 15KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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