307
FXUS63 KGID 080550
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON TIMING.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTING-1" ARE EXPECTED THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE (10%) IF RAIN TURNS TO
SNOW QUICKER AND/OR SNOW RATES ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
- LIGHT SNOW (1" OR LESS) POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY....
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY OUTSIDE TODAY, WITH NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!). ALOFT THE AREA
IS UNDER ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT, NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL/AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR!
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN/FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOWFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING, A BAND OF RAIN
WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN-
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, WITH MOST OF
THE AREA SEEING RAIN BY MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN WRAPS AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FAVORED TO FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN-SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 0.25-0.5" ARE POSSIBLE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOLER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE REMAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR WITH MODELS RANGING FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON (12Z ECMWF,
NAMNEST), TO THE EVENING (12Z HRRR). TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 DEGREES SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING TO
RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOST SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS FAVORED TO MELT (MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES), THOUGH HEAVIER
RATES OF SNOW COULD OVERCOME THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY THE
LATE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING WILL
LIKELY BE AS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. SNOW COMES TO AN
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW/SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.
MOST AREAS ARE FAVORED TO SEE A TRACE/DUSTING TO 1" OF SNOW, WITH 2"
POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW OR
HEAVIER RATES OF SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER THAN 2"
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AND THE LOCATION IS LOW (10% OR
LESS) GIVEN OVERALL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY
WET/HEAVY/SLUSHY DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR-ABOVE FREEZING
WHEN SNOW FALLS. THOUGH WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HEAVY/SLUSHY NATURE OF THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT/INHIBIT BLOWING SNOW.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS NEAR THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS,
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH
PORTIONS OF ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW.
SATURDAY...
SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT (UNDER 1"). FALLING SNOW COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SUNDAY ONWARDS...
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S-30S. ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER-SEASONABLE
AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THIS
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW ON THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE N, AS WELL.
EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE S MID TO LATE AM, THEN
GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THU AFTERNOON. MOST
FAVORED TIME FOR THE CHANGEOVER LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 19-21Z, GIVE
OR TAKE AN HOUR, OR TWO. WITH THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL COME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END BY MIDNIGHT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AS WELL AND ALLOW FOR RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
WINDS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN
GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF THE N THROUGHOUT WED AM. HAVE INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS
15-20KT AND GUSTS 25-30KT. THE WIND, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, COULD AID IN THOSE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...THIES
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