698
FXUS63 KGID 081746
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW POSSIBLE (15% TO 35% CHANCE) FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
FRIDAY.
- TOTAL SNOWFALL OF A TRACE TO 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE). SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
- SOME AREAS MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE AREA MAINLY ALONG HIGHWAY 81 IN NEBRASKA, AND
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING MOST, IF NOT NEARLY ALL, OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THAT ARE SOUTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS A TRACE TO 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME AREAS MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOW. THE CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS HAVE A TRACE TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW BUT THIS
IS ON THE LOW END OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE (30%) OF A HIGHER AMOUNT OF SNOW FROM AROUND PLAINVILLE AND
CAMBRIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS YORK. THE NAM AND NAMNEST MODELS
ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 6 INCHES. MOST OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE (15% TO 35% CHANCE) ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ON FRIDAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY....
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY OUTSIDE TODAY, WITH NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!). ALOFT THE AREA
IS UNDER ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT, NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL/AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR!
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERN/FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOWFALL THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING, A BAND OF RAIN
WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN-
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, WITH MOST OF
THE AREA SEEING RAIN BY MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN WRAPS AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FAVORED TO FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN-SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 0.25-0.5" ARE POSSIBLE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOLER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE REMAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR WITH MODELS RANGING FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON (12Z ECMWF,
NAMNEST), TO THE EVENING (12Z HRRR). TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 DEGREES SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING TO
RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOST SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS FAVORED TO MELT (MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES), THOUGH HEAVIER
RATES OF SNOW COULD OVERCOME THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY THE
LATE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING WILL
LIKELY BE AS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. SNOW COMES TO AN
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW/SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.
MOST AREAS ARE FAVORED TO SEE A TRACE/DUSTING TO 1" OF SNOW, WITH 2"
POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW OR
HEAVIER RATES OF SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER THAN 2"
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AND THE LOCATION IS LOW (10% OR
LESS) GIVEN OVERALL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY
WET/HEAVY/SLUSHY DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR-ABOVE FREEZING
WHEN SNOW FALLS. THOUGH WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HEAVY/SLUSHY NATURE OF THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT/INHIBIT BLOWING SNOW.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS NEAR THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS,
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH
PORTIONS OF ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW.
SATURDAY...
SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT (UNDER 1"). FALLING SNOW COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SUNDAY ONWARDS...
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S-30S. ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER-SEASONABLE
AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH THIS
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS PREVAILING VFR CIGS (NEAR 5KFT) RAPIDLY
LOWER AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING LIKELY BY 09/19Z. CIGS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER AS
COLDER AIR INFILTRATES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS BECOMING POSSIBLE IN A
RA/SN MIX. CIGS SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO THE EAST, WITH VFR
CIGS LIKELY RETURNING BY 19/03Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SUBSIDING TO CLOSER TO 10
KTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...ROSSI
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