216
FXUS63 KGID 091011
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS,
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA (THAYER
COUNTY AREA).
- THERE WILL BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY,
WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MOST FAVORED TO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING
OF SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD IS UNLIKELY THROUGH
THE NEXT 10-15 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
AREA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST, AND MANY MODELS KEEP OUR
FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY DRY. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (20-40%) FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION (0.5" OR LESS),
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STOCKTON, KS TO
HEBRON, NE. THE PRIMARY TIMEFRAME IS 1PM TO 8PM.
AFTER THIS DEPARTS, A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZIER NORTHWEST WINDS, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW. FOR NOW, OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO ACCUMULATING SNOW,
BUT THESE COLD-AIR ADVECTION SETUPS SOMETIMES "OVERPRODUCE." AS
SUCH, A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. REGARDLESS, THE MAJORITY OF THE
SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING EXTREMELY MILD TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL EXCEED RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME AROUND, BUT THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE
(50%) TO SET WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THE 13TH.
A SERIES OF NORTHWESTERLY-FLOW SYSTEMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA,
ALONG WITH "COOLER" TEMPERATURES (BUT PROBABLY STILL NEAR-NORMAL
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN CIRCULATING ON RADAR ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW HAS PROVIDED STEADY
LIGHT RAIN EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AT SPOTS THE PAST HOUR OR SO. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE
COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND GIVEN THE THAWED OUT SOILS, HAVE A HARD
TIME IMAGINING MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE A FEW
BRIEF, HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION, IF THEY MATERIALIZE AT
ALL. THE NAM AND NAMNEST HAVE NOT SURPRISINGLY BACKED OFF ON
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THEY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR, WHICH
INDICATE AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE TRI-CITIES AREA. WHILE THIS STILL
SEEMS LIKELY TOO HIGH OF A SNOWFALL TOTAL GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION RATE AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UP TO AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE HWO.
AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
IS REALIZED, WITH MORNING TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID-20S TO START THE DAY. ALOFT, EXPECT THE SUBSEQUENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO MAINLY
PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY, BRINING ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP TO MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, SLIGHTLY
OUT OF PHASE WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR REACHING THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD THEN BRING SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 92) SATURDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A GLANCING BLOW WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED,
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND
THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNING AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN ABOVE/WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY.
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO START NEXT WEEK, A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD CLIP THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF DIP
IN TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP TUE/WED.
WHILE MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DRY OVER THIS PERIOD, THE
OFFICIAL BLENDED FORECAST DOES HAVE SOME SMALL POPS FOR AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA TRI-CITIES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALOFT, WITH ADDITIONAL PASSING
DISTURBANCES LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. WHILE THESE DO NOT APPEAR
LIKE MAJOR PRECIPITATION MAKERS GIVEN THEIR TRAJECTORY AND MODEL
DATA, IT COULD MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA
STARTING AROUND THE 16TH OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. (85%
CONFIDENCE). BKN-OVC SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, BUT
CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10KFT.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...MANGELS
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