215
FXUS63 KGID 100538
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1138 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES
INTO THIS EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...ENDING BY MID-LATE EVENING.
- FOR MOST, THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS DRY. DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY TO YORK
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. NOT EXPECTING
NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS, BUT DURING THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS,
ANY SNOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY NW WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.
- THE FORECAST FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK IS OVERALL DRY, BUT WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES/LIGHT SNOW MAINLY MID-LATE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S-NEAR 60 EXPECTED FOR MON-TUE, COOLING BACK
MORE INTO THE 40S WED-FRI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CURRENTLY ON INTO TONIGHT...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS CONTINUED TO INCH NORTHWARD INTO OUR
NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES TODAY...A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE DRIVER OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS A
COMPACT AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...SHOWN BY UPPER
AIR AND SATELLITE DATA TO BE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WESTERN KS/OK BORDER AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LARGER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...BETWEEN SHARPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND BROADER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. IF ANYTHING, THIS
PRECIPITATION ENDED UP CREEPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN SEVERAL
MODELS SHOWED...BUT THE BRUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
CLOSER TO AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN KS, BUT SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES
(ESPECIALLY THE BOTTOM ROW OF ROOKS, OSBORNE, MITCHELL).
THANKFULLY THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE, SO
WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS
EVENT, SPEEDS ARE MAINLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY FOR SOME OF THE AREA LOOK TO END UP A FEW DEGREES
SHORT...THE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP BEING FURTHER NORTH
NOT HELPING THINGS...3PM OBS ARE RIGHT AT FREEZING IN THE FAR
SOUTH, TO RIGHT AROUND 40 IN THE FAR NNW.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLING/WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES
WORKING IT WAY ENE ACROSS KS..WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END MID-LATE EVENING. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN
DRY.
THIS WEEKEND...
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY. IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, IT'D BE ACROSS NNE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY.
WHILE WE HAVE TODAY'S UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING TO OUR SOUTH,
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS WORKING ITS WAY SSE THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA, EVENTUALLY LOOKING TO END UP OVER NORTHERN MN BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW ITSELF WELL NE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, SLIDING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...THERE WILL
ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NOSING IN FROM THE NNW ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW, THERE'S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THUS
NOT EXPECTING NOTABLE AMOUNTS (SNOW WOULD BE PRIMARY PRECIP
TYPE)...AND THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH
WHETHER THIS FORCING EVEN MAKES IF FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA, SO CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT 20-30 PERCENT. THE
AREA WITH THOSE CHANCES IS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LOUP CITY TO YORK.
THOUGH NOT EXPECTING NOTABLE AMOUNTS...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PUSHES EAST, IT WILL
DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WHILE NOT BRINGING A NOTABLE CHANGE AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO, IT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF NWRLY
WINDS, WHICH MAY BE GUSTING 25-30 MPH. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPS GO,
DIDN'T MAKE BIG CHANGES, IF ANYTHING ENDED UP WITH MORE OF A
GRADIENT FROM SW (MAYBE NEAR 50 DEGREES) TO NE (MID 30S).
THERE'S SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE HIGHS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE FOR SUNDAY, WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE LOWER-AMPLITUDE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS
THAT MAIN LOW PUSHES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECTING
MORE SUN...AND LIGHTER WINDS (CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH) WHICH TURN
MORE WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH
THE AIRMASS IN THE REGION WARMING, ALONG WITH THE SUN/WESTERLY
WINDS, EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...WITH MID 40S EAST TO MID
50S WEST CURRENTLY FORECAST.
NEW WORK WEEK...
AS WE GET INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY AN
OVERALL DRY ONE, BUT THERE ARE SPOTS WHERE SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY END UP BEING NEEDED. CURRENTLY NOT LOOKING AT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEMS...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEEK STARTS OUT WITH LOWER
AMPLITUDE FLOW...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY WELL
ANCHORED OVER THE WEST COAST, DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE OF THESE DISTURBANCES
COULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AT LEAST CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ENOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN THAT FORECAST DIDN'T
STRAY FROM THE NBM. AT THIS POINT, ANY DISTURBANCES LOOK LIKE
THEY'D BE ON THE QUICK-HITTING, LIGHTER SIDE OF THINGS. WE'LL
SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TO
RETURN TO STAR THE WEEK, WITH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORECAST
TO REACH THE MID 50S-NEAR 60 (NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
MID 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40). WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONTS MID-LATE WEEK,
FORECAST HIGHS DROP BACK MORE INTO THE 40S...BUT LIKE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS THAT FAR OUT IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A LOW
CHANCE (10%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF GRI/EAR.
A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL PRECEDE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY. GUSTS OVER 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT EAR.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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