085
FXUS63 KGID 121756
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1156 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY MIX IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
- IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY BREEZY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, AND
GUSTS OF 45 5O 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS ONLY A LOW-END CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SNOW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON-TRACK. TODAY REMAINS WARM AND
PLEASANT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED OVERNIGHT
MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT, AND WE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BREAK RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT BOTH GRI AND HSI (PREVIOUS RECORD 35).
LIGHT RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN ONLY SPRINKLES FOR MOST AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN, BUT NO ACCUMULATION
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
WEDNESDAY COOLER. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 WOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN OVER 10 DAYS...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON THURSDAY, BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH, RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES NUDGED A BIT
HIGHER ON WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOR FRIDAY. GUSTS 45-55 MPH ARE
LIKELY (50-90%), AND HIGH WINDS (60 MPH+) CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINIMAL.
AFTER A COUPLE "NORMAL" JANUARY DAYS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BEEN A QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOOKING IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
DATA SHOWING A LOWER-AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN US/CAN BORDER
KEEPING TROUGHING THROUGH THE EAST COAST, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS IS KEEPING FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWESTERLY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO A
LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES. AT THE SURFACE, THE FORECAST
AREA IS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
EASTERN OK/KS AND WEAK TROUGHING DRAPED SW FROM THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NE/KS. WINDS REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY...HAD A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH CLOSER TO
MIDDAY- EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF FAR EASTERN
AREAS ARE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. NO BIG SURPRISES WITH TEMPS
TODAY...WITH 3PM OBS RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND 40 ALONG THE HWY
81 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 50S ALONG/WEST OF HWY 183.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY, BUT
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AROUND 10 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
LOOKING TO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...OVERALL THERE HASN'T
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR MONDAY, WITH BROAD NWRLY FLOW CONTINUING. MONDAY IS
LOOKING TO BE A PLEASANT DAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS AS WE SIT NORTH OF
AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST
REGION, WHILE A WEAK TROUGH BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. SPEEDS LOOKING TO TOP OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH. MODELS
SHOWING THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO MODERATE, AND WITH THE
WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS (THOUGH NOT
STRONG), EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LOOKS TO STARTING DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE BREEZY/WINDY, AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY SOUTH. WINDS START THE DAY WESTERLY, TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY IS NOT
HIGH...AS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
HIGHS TO CLIMB UP AROUND 60 (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF)...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE MORE CLOUD COVER. THOUGH NOT A TON
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION (DRIVEN BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK) COULD NOSE IN FROM THE NNW DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...SO WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW
MODELS TREND, AT THIS POINT LOOKING LIKE IT'D MAINLY BE LIQUID.
WEDNESDAY AND ON...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN
SPEED AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS PASS. SHARPER NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE/TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
EAST...FORECAST CURRENTLY REMAINS DRY, BUT LIKE TUE/TUE NIGHT,
WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. IT'LL BE A COOLER DAY...HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW- MID 40S, COULD SEE THAT TREND DOWN MORE IN THE COMING DAYS.
FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR THURSDAY AS WELL, WITH MODELS SHOWING A
BRIEF BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BACK
FURTHER INTO THE 40S-LOW 50S. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT, WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH THE WIND AND TEMP FORECAST.
NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING WELL TO ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PLAINS. AGAIN
NOT HAVING A PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SOURCE TO WORK WITH, ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT...WE'LL SEE HOW MODELS TREND THIS
WEEK. LOOKING LIKE THE MORE NOTABLE IMPACT WOULD BE WITH
'COLDER' (BASICALLY NORMAL) TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
HAVE GUSTS NEAR/OVER 40-45 MPH...AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES STILL SHOWING A ROUGHLY 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
GUSTS AT/OVER 50KTS (58 MPH) OVER OUR SOUTH CENTRAL NE COUNTIES.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
30S STICKING AROUND FOR SATURDAY, THEN MORE 40S/NEAR 50 FOR
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK PRESSURE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LLJ OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES WELL TO THE NE OF THE TERMINALS, WITH AN
INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI
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