990
FXUS63 KGID 130913
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND WARM TODAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 (DAWSON, GOSPER,
FURNAS COUNTIES).
- RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- VERY WINDY FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED, AND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS
(30-60% CHANCE).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
TODAY REMAINS WARM, BUT WILL BE NOTICABLY BREEZIER THAN
YESTERDAY. AS SUCH, WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (RH 20-25% AND NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN HAS INCREASED WITH THE SYSTEM
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH TODAY. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE (20-40%) TO SEE 0.10" OR MORE, BUT THE ENTIRE
AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 2-3PM, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH IN THE 5-6PM TIMEFRAME.
THE TREND HAS ALSO BEEN FOR PRECIPITATION TO LINGER LONGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD MIX IN, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK
IN WINDS (GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH).
ON FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MORE NOTABLE HAZARD. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD WITH THE WIND POTENTIAL, AND THE EPS
MEAN WIND GUST IS NOW NEAR 60 MPH IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE NBM NOW SHOWS A
30-60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 60 MPH FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BECOME APPROPRIATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST DAYS, BUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE ALSO TRENDED A BIT COOLER AS WELL.
REGARDLESS, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES STILL FAVOR AT LEAST A BRIEF WARMUP
BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD (AND MAYBE SOME PRECIPITATION) LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
NORTH TO NORTHWESTELRY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE (MOSTLY DRY) DISTURBANCES PASSING BY THE
REGION. THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE
THE VERY STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK, WITH GUSTS TO
55 MPH POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF CIRRUS
CAN BE STREAMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH
COMBINED WITH STEADY WESTERLY WINDS, WILL HELP KEEP UP LOW
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID-30S TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT ARE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR MID-JANUARY.
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT HELPING AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OVERALL, QPF AMOUNTS LOOK VERY MINIMAL (T-A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP), BUT MOST MODELS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, AND INCREASED
POPS JUST A BIT AS FULLY EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
AROUND MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES
COULD EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO
START THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS INDICATED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE
AMPLIFIED AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST
RESULTS IN A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS
A RESULT, AFTER A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS THURSDAY, A MORE
PROLONGED STRETCH OF COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY/MILD FLOW RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME, AS THIS PUSH
OF COLDER AIR MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, EXPECT A
VERY WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WEATHER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE (30%) TUESDAY EVENING IN RAIN SHOWERS.
LLWS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
ALOFT. LLWS PERSISTS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS TILL SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS FALL TO AROUND 20KTS DURING THE EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER SUNSET, THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD CONTAIN MVFR CEILINGS, THOUGH
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HAVE
INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...DAVIS
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