355
FXUS63 KGID 140040
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW
FLURRIES EVEN POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ANTICIPATED (ONLY A T TO
MAYBE 0.10" EXPECTED).
- NOTICABLY COOLER/BREEZY WEDNESDAY (30S/LOW 40S) WITH A BRIEF
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY (50S/LOW 60S).
- VERY WINDY FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 TO 55
MPH EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
- COOLER FRIDAY ONWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE
CLOSER TO CLIMO (UPPER 30S) THAN TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
LATELY (50S/60S)...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LOTS OF CLOUDS SPILLED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD
COVER LIKELY HELPED KEEP DOWN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID 50S
IN MOST SPOTS. LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR HAS THUS FAR AMOUNTED TO
NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES IN SPOTS AS CLOUD HEIGHTS REMAIN
ELEVATED (5-12 KFT) AND THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THAT SAID, AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN TO
SATURATE AND FOR AN UPTICK IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BE REALIZED
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A
TRACE...AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW. PRECIPITATION BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES TO START
THE DAY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAKING FOR A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. THIS COOL
DOWN WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER, AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY, AND WITH BREEZY WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE RETURNING TO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS RIDGE THEN RAPIDLY
EXITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT VERY STRONG
WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST IMPACTFUL FEATURE OF THE PERIOD, WITH MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC INDICATING THAT 60 MPH+ GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE GUSTS IN
FUTURE FORECASTS, BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, INTRODUCED TO
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW GUSTS 60 MPH+ INTO THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, ANY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, ONCE AGAIN
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLES, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNALS FOR
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS (ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WINDY DAY
LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON), WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
FOCUSED IN A RANGE (+/-5 DEGREES) CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY STARTING
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN CONTINUING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME. EXTENDED EC IS A BIT COOLER THAN GFS FOR THE TIME BEING,
BUT EITHER WAY, A COOLER (YET SEASONAL) EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA STARTING
FRIDAY, WITH MORE DAYS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THAN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE
MODERATELY-BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS (HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/LLWS THIS EVENING), AND ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CEILING HOVERING
GENERALLY NEAR THE VFR/MVFR BREAKPOINT (LONGER DURATION AT KEAR
THAN KGRI). LOWER CONFIDENCE ASPECTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL/PASSING RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
BETWEEN 09-15Z.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THIS EVENING, CEILING NEAR-TO-ABOVE 6K FT.
PREVAILS AT BOTH SITES (ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS), AND THIS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THESE FIRST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER,
ANYTIME AFTER ROUGHLY 06Z, THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
EITHER LOW-END VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR CEILING (SOMEWHERE RIGHT
AROUND 3K FT.) TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHICH SIDE OF
THE VFR/MVFR BREAKPOINT CEILING PREVAILS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR IS
CURRENTLY A TOUGH CALL. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS, PRIMARILY
09-15Z FEATURES A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL/PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO BE "HIGH IMPACT", BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH ADJUSTED THE TIMING, FELT THAT THE PROB30 GROUPS WERE
STILL THE MOST APPROPRIATE WAY TO CONVEY THIS. BY AROUND 15Z AND
BEYOND, CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DIMINISH, BUT CEILING
QUESTIONS LINGER. BASED ON SOME OF THE LATEST TYPICALLY-MOST-
RELIABLE GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT KGRI COULD SCATTER OUT ANY
LOWER CEILING MAINLY 15-20Z BEFORE A RETURN TO A CEILING ROUGHLY
3,000-3,500K FT. THEREAFTER. AT KEAR, MAINTAINED THIS LOWER
CEILING THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD, AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS
CHANCE OF IT EVER GOING AWAY.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
ACTUALLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD SITUATION HERE. NEARLY
THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SPEEDS
TYPICALLY SUSTAINED 15-20KT/GUSTS 20-25KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD (AROUND 22Z), WHEN
SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF TO AROUND 10KT.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, THANKS TO A SURGE OF EVEN
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING,
MODERATELY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY
02-06Z AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS TO TAFS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 45KT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
1-2K FT. AGL...YIELDING AT LEAST 30KT OF SHEAR MAGNITUDE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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