581
FXUS63 KGID 140908
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- THERE ARE SEVERAL WINDY DAYS AHEAD (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY),
LEADING TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THESE AREAS ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH, BUT GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
- WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOME AREAS, POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED VISIBILITY/TRAVEL
ISSUES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
RADAR PRESENTATION IS PRETTY LACKLUSTER AS OF 3AM, BUT CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE IS ONLY
A LOW (10%) CHANCE FOR MINOR, SLUSHY ACCUMULATION (AROUND 1/4
INCH) IN AREAS NORTH OF I-80. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
NORTHERLY WINDS TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TURNING TO
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 50S ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA, USHERING IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH).
EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH FORCES A
SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL, THERE HASN'T BEEN
MUCH CHANGE IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. AS
SUCH A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED IN AREAS THAT ARE MOST LIKELY
(40-80% CHANCE) TO SEE GUSTS EXCEED 60 MPH. THE REST OF THE AREA
(EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR SOUTHEAST) IS LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 50 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...MOST FAVORING NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY, AND
WIND CHILLS COULD DIP WELL BELOW ZERO IN SOME AREAS BOTH NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE "UP AND DOWN" BUT GENERALLY
WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COOLDOWN (AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW) IS FAVORED BY THE MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LOTS OF CLOUDS SPILLED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD
COVER LIKELY HELPED KEEP DOWN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID 50S
IN MOST SPOTS. LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR HAS THUS FAR AMOUNTED TO
NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES IN SPOTS AS CLOUD HEIGHTS REMAIN
ELEVATED (5-12 KFT) AND THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THAT SAID, AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BEGIN TO
SATURATE AND FOR AN UPTICK IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BE REALIZED
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A
TRACE...AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY
THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING
SOME POSSIBLE FLURRIES TO START THE DAY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-80.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAKING FOR A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. THIS COOL
DOWN WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER, AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY, AND WITH BREEZY WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE RETURNING TO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS RIDGE THEN RAPIDLY
EXITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT VERY STRONG
WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOST IMPACTFUL FEATURE OF THE PERIOD, WITH MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC INDICATING THAT 60 MPH+ GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE GUSTS IN
FUTURE FORECASTS, BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, INTRODUCED TO
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW GUSTS 60 MPH+ INTO THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, ANY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, WITH DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, ONCE AGAIN
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLES, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNALS FOR
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS (ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WINDY DAY
LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON), WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
FOCUSED IN A RANGE (+/-5 DEGREES) CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY STARTING
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN CONTINUING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME. EXTENDED EC IS A BIT COOLER THAN GFS FOR THE TIME BEING,
BUT EITHER WAY, A COOLER (YET SEASONAL) EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA STARTING
FRIDAY, WITH MORE DAYS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THAN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE MODERATELY-
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS, AND ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CEILING HOVERING GENERALLY NEAR
THE VFR/MVFR BREAKPOINT (LONGER DURATION AT KEAR THAN KGRI).
LOWER CONFIDENCE ASPECTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
OCCASIONAL/PASSING RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
BETWEEN 09-15Z.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE EARLY THIS MORNING, CLEAR SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW STRATUS MOVING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. INITIALLY ANY CEILING SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR, BUT
ANYTIME AFTER ROUGHLY 09Z THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
HIGH-END MVFR. ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS, PRIMARILY 09-15Z
FEATURES A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL/PASSING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EVENTUALLY TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS. FELT THAT
THE PROB30 GROUPS WERE STILL THE MOST APPROPRIATE WAY TO CONVEY
THIS CHANCE. BY AROUND 15Z AND BEYOND, CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION DIMINISH, BUT CEILING QUESTIONS LINGER. BASED ON
SOME OF THE LATEST TYPICALLY-MOST-RELIABLE GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS
THAT KGRI WILL MOSTLY LIKELY SCATTER OUT ANY LOWER CEILING
MAINLY 15-22Z. BEFORE AT LEAST A BRIEF RETURN TO LOW-END VFR
CEILING RETURNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT KEAR,
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH-END MVFR CEILING WILL EVERY
TRULY LIFT/SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY, SO HOLD ONTO IT THROUGH
21Z BEFORE AT LEAST INCREASING TO LOW-END VFR. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE "EXACT" CATEGORIES AND TIMING IS ONLY CONSIDERED "MEDIUM"
AT THIS TIME.
- WIND DETAILS:
ACTUALLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD SITUATION HERE. MOST OF
THESE FIRST 18 HOURS WILL FEATURE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SPEEDS
TYPICALLY SUSTAINED 15-20KT/GUSTS 20-25KT. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, WINDS WILL DROP OFF MARKEDLY AND
BECOME AROUND 5KT OR LESS (VARIABLE DIRECTION).
ON ONE FINAL WIND-RELATED NOTE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT "WEAKLY
STRONG" LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD PERSIST FOR THE FIRST
HOUR OR SO OF THE PERIOD (06-07Z), BUT WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OF LLWS OCCURRING DID NOT FEEL IT WAS WORTHY OF INCLUSION, AS
THE STRONGEST OF LLWS CONCERNS FROM THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY
06Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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