740
FXUS63 KGID 150504
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1104 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-60 MPH. A HIGH WIND
WATCH CONTINUES FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS REACH 55-60 MPH.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONCERN.
- COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS OF NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAINLY SOME OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES SEEING WIND
CHILLS DOWN AROUND -10 FRI NIGHT-SAT AM AND SAT NIGHT-SUN AM
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE (15% TO NEAR 30% CHANCE) FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE
SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING OUT OF THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE MID 40S AND WINDS ARE MAKING THE
TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) FEEL LIKE THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH TO WEST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
BUT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ST. PAUL TO KEARNEY TO
BEAVER CITY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (15% TO 30% CHANCE) ON
FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. ONE MODEL IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER IS INDICATING FRIDAY AND YET ANOTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING
FROM AROUND -15 TO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA AND GUSTY, NORTHERLY WINDS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
FREEZING. WIND CHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0 TO AROUND/SLIGHTLY BELOW -10
DEGREES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BRIEF WARM UP (INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS) IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY,
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WITH PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. A BIT OF A WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
WITH SOUTH TO WEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF
WARMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS PRODUCING A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
OVERALL-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, AND ALSO RAIN-FREE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST
MAJORITY OF IT. CERTAINLY THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MODERATELY-WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING (GUSTS 25-30KT LIKELY).
- CEILING/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY AT/ABOVE 15K FEET. HOWEVER, RIGHT
OUT OF THE GATE VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
VERY BRIEF "RANDOM" PATCHES OF LOWER VFR CLOUDS BASED AROUND
3,500 FT. AGL. LATE IN THE PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING, ANOTHER
BATCH OF LOWER-VFR CLOUDS MAINLY BASED AT/ABOVE 4K FT. WILL
LIKELY INVADE FROM THE NORTH, AND MIGHT EVEN BE ACCOMPANIED BY
BRIEF SPRINKLES/BRIEF RAIN SHOWER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCE OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR
TAF INCLUSION.
- WIND DETAILS:
BY FAR THE LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AWAY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10KT.
HOWEVER, SPEEDS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BUT THEN SOON
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH PEAK SPEEDS FOCUSING 19-23Z (GENERALLY
SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT/GUSTS 25-30KT). FOLLOWING SOMEWHAT OF A
LULL IN SPEEDS CENTERED 00-04Z, SPEEDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY AFTER 04Z), AGAIN GUSTING AT LEAST
25-30KT.
ALSO WIND-RELATED, SOME MARGINALLY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) COULD DEVELOP AT A DIFFERENT JUNCTURES IN THE PERIOD
(MAINLY DURING BRIEF "DISCONNECTS" BETWEEN STRONGER WINDS WITHIN
THE LOWEST 1-2K FT. AGL AND WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE A BIT
WEAKER). THE TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES FOR THIS CURRENTLY LOOK TO
FOCUS 16-18Z AND THEN PERHAPS AGAIN 23-03Z. HOWEVER, BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF LLWS CURRENTLY LOOK A BIT TOO
WEAK/UNCERTAIN FOR FORMAL TAF INCLUSION (SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MANY
UPCOMING DAYS:
- THURSDAY:
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY FROM
DAWSON TO FURNAS COUNTIES AND PHILLIPS AND ROOKS COUNTIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THESE
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 25% WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH.
- FRIDAY:
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS AS THURSDAY PLUS PORTIONS OF SMITH AND OSBORNE COUNTIES.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25% IN THESE
AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS DESCRIBED FOR
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 15% TO 25% ON SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPROVE SOME ON
SUNDAY, BUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS MAY STILL GET DOWN TO
AROUND 25% WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH.
HUMIDITY AND WINDS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY SO FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...SCHULDT
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