376
FXUS63 KGID 150932
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY, WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- A STRONGER PUSH OF WINDS ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY. GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA/KANSAS.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
- FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE COLD. AREAS NORTH OF I-80
MAY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SUMMARY OF FORECAST CHANGES:
1.) A BRIEF MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT (8PM TO
1AM). THIS IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE 06Z HRRR. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
2.) THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR FRIDAY WAS EXPANDED EASTWARD
SLIGHTLY (NOW INCLUDING HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND). THIS WAS
PRIMARILY BASED ON WIND GUST OUTPUT FROM NEAR-TERM CAMS
(HRRR/RAP).
3.) THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY TO GRAND ISLAND TO YORK.
4.) A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW).
5.) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HAVE TRENDED COOLER. WIND CHILLS
AS LOWS AS -10 TO -20 ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING OUT OF THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE MID 40S AND WINDS ARE MAKING THE
TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) FEEL LIKE THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH TO WEST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
BUT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ST. PAUL TO KEARNEY TO
BEAVER CITY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (15% TO 30% CHANCE) ON
FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. ONE MODEL IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER IS INDICATING FRIDAY AND YET ANOTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING
FROM AROUND -15 TO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA AND GUSTY, NORTHERLY WINDS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
FREEZING. WIND CHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0 TO AROUND/SLIGHTLY BELOW -10
DEGREES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BRIEF WARM UP (INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS) IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY,
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WITH PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. A BIT OF A WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
WITH SOUTH TO WEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF
WARMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS PRODUCING A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
OVERALL-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, AND ALSO RAIN-FREE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST
MAJORITY OF IT. CERTAINLY THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MODERATELY-WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING (GUSTS 25-30KT LIKELY).
- CEILING/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY AT/ABOVE 15K FEET. HOWEVER, RIGHT
OUT OF THE GATE VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
VERY BRIEF "RANDOM" PATCHES OF LOWER VFR CLOUDS BASED AROUND
3,500 FT. AGL. LATE IN THE PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING, ANOTHER
BATCH OF LOWER-VFR CLOUDS MAINLY BASED AT/ABOVE 4K FT. WILL
LIKELY INVADE FROM THE NORTH, AND MIGHT EVEN BE ACCOMPANIED BY
BRIEF SPRINKLES/BRIEF RAIN SHOWER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCE OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR
TAF INCLUSION.
- WIND DETAILS:
BY FAR THE LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AWAY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10KT.
HOWEVER, SPEEDS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BUT THEN SOON
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH PEAK SPEEDS FOCUSING 19-23Z (GENERALLY
SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT/GUSTS 25-30KT). FOLLOWING SOMEWHAT OF A
LULL IN SPEEDS CENTERED 00-04Z, SPEEDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY AFTER 04Z), AGAIN GUSTING AT LEAST
25-30KT.
ALSO WIND-RELATED, SOME MARGINALLY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) COULD DEVELOP AT A DIFFERENT JUNCTURES IN THE PERIOD
(MAINLY DURING BRIEF "DISCONNECTS" BETWEEN STRONGER WINDS WITHIN
THE LOWEST 1-2K FT. AGL AND WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE A BIT
WEAKER). THE TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES FOR THIS CURRENTLY LOOK TO
FOCUS 16-18Z AND THEN PERHAPS AGAIN 23-03Z. HOWEVER, BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF LLWS CURRENTLY LOOK A BIT TOO
WEAK/UNCERTAIN FOR FORMAL TAF INCLUSION (SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
TODAY:
TODAY WILL START OFF WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS, ALLOWING FOR A NICE
WARMUP (50S TO LOW 60S), BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL DROP AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT. AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
183 MAY SEE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE, COMBINED WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH...RESULTING IN NEAR
CRITICAL (OR BRIEFLY CRITICAL) FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY:
THE STRONGER WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN HIGHER FIRE
THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN TODAY,
BUT, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT IT COULD TREND A BIT LOWER.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 30-40 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO
NEAR 60 MPH, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS THAT ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE HUMIDITY BELOW 25%.
SATURDAY:
WINDS DECREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT 30-40 MPH GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD (HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S), BUT
HUMIDITY MAY STILL DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN WESTERN
AREAS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
SUNDAY:
SUNDAY TRENDS WARMER, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
(25-35 MPH GUSTS) COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY OF 20-25% WILL RESULT
IN ONE MORE DAY OF AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>084.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ060-072-073-082-083.
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ005-017.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005-017.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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