148
FXUS63 KGID 231046
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
446 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ROOKS, OSBORNE
AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS BETWEEN NOON TODAY THROUGH
6AM SUNDAY. UP TO 5-8" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PHILLIPS,
SMITH AND JEWELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS AS WELL AS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES BETWEEN NOON TODAY THROUGH
6AM SUNDAY. UP TO 2-5" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL STILL SEE SNOW OF UP TO 1-3" THOUGH SUNDAY.
- THOUGH SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING AND UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL FALL BETWEEN THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE GREATEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LIES
TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DECREASING ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE STATE LINE.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
MONDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES EACH NIGHT (ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT) WILL FALL AS LOW AS -15 TO -30 DEGREES WITH
MINIMAL RECOVERY DURING THE DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 445 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
SNOW THIS MORNING: A STRAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND LATER INTO A FEW NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS (CLOSER TO
9AM-2PM). ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1" WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH MORE STEADY AND UNIFORM SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. THESE AM SNOW
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS.
THE MAIN EVENT (ONSET): THE MAIN ROUND FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND WILL
NOT FULLY ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY JET PUSHES IN A RELATIVELY "WARMER" AND A MORE
SATURATED AIRMASS. THIS AIR WILL SLIDE IN OVERTOP OF THE COLD AND
DRIER AIRMASS LOCATED NEAR THE SURFACE (RECENT NORTHWEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN). TOGETHER, THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE
OF EXITING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM OUT OF A SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH, WILL
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE MID-TO-LOW LEVELS ALONGSIDE FORCED
(ISENTROPIC) ASSENT. THESE PROCESSES WILL TOGETHER HELP INITIALIZE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
COVERAGE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY FILL THE AREA IN
BETWEEN MAINLY 5PM AND 1AM FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH.
THE MAIN EVENT (ENDING): THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH A BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH A BULK OF THE SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW LIGHTER AND
MORE BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS CANT YET BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
(MAINLY CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA). THE ENDING OF THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION PERIOD WILL TAKE PLACE FROM 12-8PM SATURDAY,
STARTING AT FIRST IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:
- OFFICIAL FORECAST (MOST LIKELY SCENARIO): PROJECTS AT LEAST 1-2"
OF SNOW AREAWIDE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 3-4" POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-80. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4-8" WILL FALL ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- HIGH END / WORST CASE SCENARIO (1 IN 10 CHANCE OR 10% PERCENTILE):
1-4" OF SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80, 4-6" ACROSS NEBRASKA LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-80 AND 6-9" ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- LOW END / BEST CASE SCENARIO (9 IN 10 CHANCE OR 90% PERCENTILE): A
TRACE TO 1" OF SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80, 1-2" ACROSS NEBRASKA
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 AND 2-5" ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
CONFIDENCE/UNCERTAINTIES: THE OVERALL BEST CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL LIES
ACROSS AREAS TOWARDS THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LONGEST SNOWFALL RESIDENCE
TIMES. IN ADDITION, THESE LOCATIONS NATURALLY LIE CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER TRACK. FORECAST AMOUNTS SHOW A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT ALONG THE NE/KS STATE LINE AS DRIER AIR MAY MIX IN FROM THE
NORTH, LIMITED OVERALL SNOW POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE STATE
LINE.
THE COLD THIS WEEKEND:
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY AS THE
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SEEP DOWN AND INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD NOT ESCAPE THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
GET SLIGHTLY COLDER EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS BETWEEN 5
AND -8 DEGREES THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO AS LOW AS
-6 TO -11 BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY LIGHT AFTER
THIS AFTERNOON (GUSTING UP 20 15-25MPH THIS AFTERNOON), OVERNIGHT
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP AS LOW AS -15 TO -25 DEGREES
EACH NIGHT. THE OVERALL COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND WILL FALL THIS
MORNING (-15 TO -30 DEGREE WIND CHILLS) AND SUNDAY NIGHT (-15 TO -25
DEGREE WIND CHILLS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
OVERALL, THERE AREN'T SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS SUPPORTS THE
ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT, COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE AREA AND STEADY NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS TO THE -15 TO -25
DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNTIL
WE SEE MORE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. SNOW IS VERY LIKELY (80-100%) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN
6PM FRIDAY THROUGH 6AM SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THIS TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAY
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL INFLATE THE TOTALS IN THAT AREA. TOTAL QPF
HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY, AND SNOW RATIOS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20:1 THANKS TO A DEEP, SATURATED DGZ. AS A
RESULT, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RANGES FROM 3-6" OVER OUR KS
ZONES, AND BETWEEN 1-4" OVER NEBRASKA.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH/EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA (5") IN SOME SPOTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF OF HIGHWAY 24 IN
KANSAS. THAT SAID, THIS SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING OVER A RELATIVELY
LONG DURATION (PRIMARILY WEEKEND) AND WILL BE A LIGHT/FLUFFY
SNOW. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL IMPACTS
SOMEWHAT.
SNOW GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND "WARMER"
(HIGHS IN THE TEENS), BUT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS COULD
ACTUALLY END UP AS THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FORTUNATELY,
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS COULD STILL DIP
BELOW -20 DEGREES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL, THE WARMUP HAS BEEN A BIT DELAYED/MUTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND
30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND SNOW-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THESE FIRST 4 HOURS (WITH ONLY
GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING VFR CLOUD LAYERS), BUT ESPECIALLY
BEYOND SUNRISE FRIDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY
FEATURE A TRICKY-TO-PIN-DOWN MIX OF LOW-VFR/MVFR CEILING, ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SNOW. WINDS
WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE, BUT MOST OF THESE FIRST 12 HOURS WILL
BE MODESTLY-BREEZY WITH GUSTS COMMONLY 20-25KT OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/SNOW DETAILS:
WE ARE DOWN TO ONLY ABOUT FOUR HOURS OF TRULY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
VFR/PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, ALREADY BY 10-12Z,
SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A NARROW BAND OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW WITH AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY COULD
BREAK OUT OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF BOTH KGRI/KEAR. AS A RESULT,
HAVE MOVED UP THE START OF THE PREVIOUS PROB30 GROUP TO 10Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HONESTLY, BEYOND ESPECIALLY AROUND 14Z
CONFIDENCE IN "EXACT" CEILING/VISIBILITY AND RELATED SNOW
INTENSITY IS ONLY MEDIUM-AT-BEST. OVERALL THOUGH, EXPECT SNOW TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY-LIKELY/PERSISTENT WITH TIME (ESPECIALLY BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING), AND HAVE GONE WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW BY THEN WITH A MIX OF MVFR CEILING AND
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY. CUMULATIVE ACCUMULATION OF ANY SNOW AT
KGRI/KEAR DURING THIS VALID PERIOD IS CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE 1-2" (AND BE LIGHT/FLUFFY IN CONSISTENCY).
- WIND DETAILS:
DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
GENERALLY TRANSITIONING FROM MORE NORTHERLY TO MORE EASTERLY
(MAINLY RANGING 020-060 DEGREES). THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL FEATURE THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS...COMMONLY
SUSTAINED 15-20KT/GUSTS 20-25KT. THEREAFTER, SPEEDS WILL
STEADILY DECLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING , SETTLING DOWN TO
ONLY AROUND 10KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
NEZ082>087.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ005>007.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ017>019.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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