258
FXUS63 KGID 232016
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
216 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW, EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 1" NORTH OF I-80, TO AROUND 6" ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- SNOW WILL END FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT LINGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- BESIDES THE SNOW, DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT -15 TO -25 DEGREES. THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND 0 TO -15 DEGREES, WITH ONLY
MODEST IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
- NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK, BUT LINGERING SNOWCOVER
WILL HINDER A REAL SIGNIFICANT WARMUP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL HIT THE MAIN POINTS REGARDING THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
EVENT/HEADLINES UP FRONT:
- OVERALL TREND IS FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOW TOTALS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SINCE THE DAYTIME SNOWFALL HAS
STRUGGLED TO MATERIALIZE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE OVERALL
WEAK LIFT STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME DRY LOW LEVEL AIR - AS
EVIDENT BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
A 1048MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS RECENTLY ANALYZED NEAR SIOUX FALLS,
AND THIS IS QUITE STRONG, EVEN BY LATE JAN. STANDARDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS BEING PRETTY EFFECTIVE AT FUNNELING A
CONTINUOUS STREAM OF DRIER AIR IN FROM THE N/NE. THIS WILL BE
OVERCOME SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS STRONGER, DEEPER ASCENT
OVERSPREADS THE REGION - BUT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN LIGHT.
- SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 1", OR LESS, ALONG
AND N OF I-80, TO 1-4" BETWEEN HWY 6 AND HWY 136, TO 4-6" IN
ROOKS, OSBORNE, AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EVEN THESE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE A DECENT N-S
GRADIENT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT, ONCE THEY
GET GOING, OWING TO DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND LIGHT WINDS TO
LIMIT FRACTURING AND COMPACTION. VERY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF AROUND 20:1 (POSSIBLY HIGHER) SHOULD BE COMMON.
- NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING HEADLINES WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THAT SAID, I DO EXPECT WE'LL NEED AN
ADJUSTMENT TO END THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND THE WINTER
STORM WARNING CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 6AM SUNDAY
EXPIRATION TIME. YES, WE COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF
ACCUMULATIONS, EVEN IN THESE FAR S ZONES, WILL WRAP UP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.
- NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, EITHER. IT'S
A HEADLINE THAT IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO KEEP IN PLACE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT RATHER THAN RUN THE SAME HEADLINE OFF
AND ON OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS - FELT IT'S SIMPLER FROM A
MESSAGING STANDPOINT TO CONTINUE IT THROUGH MONDAY AM, AS IS.
THE WEAK WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALSO ADD TO THE
"MARGINALITY" OF IT, BUT THIS IS BY FAR THE WORST STRETCH OF
COLD AIR WE'VE SEEN THUS FAR IN AN OTHERWISE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WINTER. WE ARE LIKELY PAST THE WORST OF THE WIND CILLS OF
THIS EVENT (WHICH OCCURRED THIS MORNING), BUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES
AMIDST CLEARING SKIES OVER FRESH SNOWCOVER. THUS, EVEN LIGHT
BOUTS OF WIND WILL BE BRUTAL AND IT'S A NEW SCHOOL/WORK WEEK.
HAVEN'T SPENT A WHOLE LOT OF TIME LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED GIVEN
THE ACTIVE SHORT TERM...BUT OVERALL, IT APPEARS RATHER DRY AND
QUIET. TEMPERATURES DON'T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM AS THEY ONCE
DID A FEW DAYS AGO - LIKELY OWING TO NEW AND VERY WIDESPREAD
(LOOK AT THE NATIONAL WATCH/WARNING MAP...THIS IS A HUGE SYSTEM
WITH FAR REACHING IMPACTS IN AREA AND MAGNITUDE) SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER, WE SHOULD AT LEAST GET BACK CLOSER TO FREEZING/NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE IMPACTS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT 18-24
HOURS. OVERALL, THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A LONG DURATION,
LIGHT SNOW TYPE OF EVENT, WITH IMPACTS TO CIGS AND VSBYS BEING
PRIMARILY MVFR. THERE IS ABOUT A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW TONIGHT,
GENERALLY FROM AROUND 05Z TO 10Z, WHERE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY
ENOUGH FOR VSBYS TO FALL DOWN TO HIGH-END IFR, AND PERHAPS NEAR
IFR/MVFR CRITERIA FOR CIGS. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF THIS WINDOW,
MAINLY 1500-3000FT CIGS AND 3-6SM VSBYS ARE EXPECTED, EVEN IN
AREAS OF OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
WINDS WILL START OFF THE PERIOD OUT OF THE NE AROUND 8-13KT THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR SAT AM. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ082>087.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ005>007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ017>019.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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