783
FXUS63 KGID 250823
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
223 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL AS LOW AS -15 TO -25 DEGREES
ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
- HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY STRETCH INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS (-5 TO -12 DEGREES).
- A FEW AREAS OF FLURRIES CONCENTRATED OUT WEST TODAY MAY CLIP
BY A FEW WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN LYING LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON (10-20% CHANCES). NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE WINTER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE PAST 48 HOURS
HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE AREA AS OF EARLIER TONIGHT. WE NOW SHIFT
OUR ATTENTION TOWARDS THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND ARCTIC
AIRMASS THAT STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN RECENTLY FEEDING MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, IS NOW IN THE ACT OF PIVOTING EASTWARD. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SOON RETAKE CONTROL OF THE UPPER-LEVELS, LEADING TO COOLING
ALOFT. IN ADDITION, A WESTERN U.S. RIDGING PATTERN WILL SOON PUSH
CLOSER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
ANY SIGN OF ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM OUT OF THE DISCUSSION
FOR THE SHORT-TERM.
THE MORE IMPORTANT METEOROLOGICAL FEATURE REGARDING THE NEAR-TEM
FORECAST WILL BE FROM THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH NOW ON ITS
WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHER PRESSURE CENTERED BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN)
WILL FURTHER HELP PUSH DOWN ONE FINAL KISS OF ARCTIC AIR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S TODAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS LOWS PLUMMET TOWARDS THEIR COLDEST
POINT OF THE WEEK (TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -5 TO -12 DEGREES). IN
ADDITION, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GUIDE STEADY 10-
20MPH NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH.
THESE WINDS WILL WILL QUICKLY LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGHER
PRESSURE CENTER DESCENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH, STABILIZING THE WIND
FIELD LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL STILL FALL AS LOW AS BETWEEN MAINLY -15 AND -25 DEGREES
MAINLY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD AIRMASS. GIVEN THE
CONTINUATION OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 11AM MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME COVERED AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. A FEW
FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY-281, WILL HAVE A MINOR
CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW FLURRIES DROP OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THESE
CLOUDS (10-20% CHANCE). THE INTENSITY OF ANY AREAS OF FLURRIES
SHOULD BE MINOR ENOUGH AND/OR BRIEF ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SECOND WAVE OF THIS
DOUBLE-HEADED WINTER MONSTER OF A SYSTEM EJECTING NEWARD OUT OF
THE BAJA REGION. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE NE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION GOING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, FOR US, REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A GRADUAL DECLINE IN REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS AS DRIER AIR NUDGES IN FROM THE N. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SHARPENS UP WELL
S/SE OF OUR AREA AND FOCUSES THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THERE. EARLIER TODAY, WE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE NE/KS STATE LINE AND MOVED UP THE END TIME
OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO MIDNIGHT. THESE ACTIONS WERE IN-
LINE WITH HI-RES MODEL TRENDS AT THE TIME, AND GENERALLY STILL
APPEAR TO BE ON-TRACK. MITCHELL CO APPEARS MOST AT-RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE AROUND 1", OR
SO. ELSEWHERE, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE 1/2", OR LESS.
THE OTHER STORY REMAINS THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WIND CHILLS WITH THIS PACKAGE, OR THE
ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP
VALUES FAIRLY CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, MODELS STILL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NWRLY
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUNDAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS, EXPECT ANOTHER DIP IN WIND CHILLS TO
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF -15F TO -25F SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WORTH NOTING THAT IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
MONDAY AM AS, EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20F BY MIDDAY, WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING. THUS,
WIND CHILLS PROBABLY DON'T RISE ABOVE 0F UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE WEEK DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS COLD. HOWEVER, WE'RE
PUTTING DOWN A LOT OF COVERAGE OF SNOW AND ICE ACROSS A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND, AND
THAT'S GOING TO TAKE SOME WORK TO OVERCOME. OFTEN TIMES, MODELS
UNDER-ESTIMATE THIS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TOO QUICKLY. EXPECT
WE'LL SEE HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MIDWEEK, BUT
WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT 40S ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY HARD TO
COME BY FOR TUE-WED IN RECENT MODELS TRENDS. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
ANOTHER LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR FOR LATE WEEK BEHIND A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM, BUT SO FAR, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS SEVERE OR LONG-
LASTING AS THIS WEEKEND'S. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT SOMEWHAT
DECENT CHANCE FOR MOISTURE, ALBEIT WEAK/LIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETAIN ACROSS THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
ACROSS THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILING AS LOW AS 5-10KFT. THERE IS A
NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FLURRIES BETWEEN 21 AND 0Z (10% CHANCE AND
MAINLY FOR KEAR). VISIBILITIES EITHER WAY SHOULD NOT BE
IMPACTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
WEAK WINDS TONIGHT WILL REORGANIZE OUT OUT OF THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING, BLOWING BETWEEN
10-15KTS DURING THE DAY AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...STUMP
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