563
FXUS63 KGID 291128
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MAINLY MINOR SNOW IMPACTS. ONLY BETWEEN A FEW TENTS
OF AN INCH UP TO JUST OVER 1" OF SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS THIS
PERIOD. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE NORTH.
- THE TIME PERIODS MOST LIKELY TO SUPPORT SNOW WILL BE DURING
THE DAYTIME TODAY, FRIDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
EVENING TO NIGHT.
- THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WILL COME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(TEENS AND 20S) WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING (NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS). WINDCHILL
VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS -5 TO -20 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, SCOUR
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO A FEW PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION
FROM THE PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PAIRED WITH A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, WILL HELP SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF THESE SHOWERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FROM THE SHOWERS AS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RARELY EXCEED A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO 1".
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY (UP TO 40-50%
CHANCES) WILL GENERALLY LAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS (MAINLY
PLACES NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES). THERE IS HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW EXPANSIVE THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE. THE LATEST
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS: A LESS
EXPANSIVE COVERAGE AREA FROM THE HRRR MODEL (1/3RD OF THE AREA) WITH
A MORE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE AREA FROM THE NAMNEST MODEL (2/3RDS OF
THE AREA). THIS DISAGREEMENT IN SOLUTIONS HAS LIMITED OUR
CONFIDENCE TO RAISING POPS MUCH HIGHER THAN BEFORE.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE
PROBABLE FRIDAY (25-60% CHANCES). THIS WAVE LOOKS TO OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW (PRIMARILY <1" OF NEW
SNOW). BEYOND THE LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TOMORROW, A THIRD WAVE WITH
SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS MAY PASS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT (30-60% CHANCE
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES)
BESIDES THE SNOW, OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND TODAY
WITH HIGHS (MID 20S TO UPPER 30S) FALLING AROUND 10-15 DEGREES SHY
OF WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BOTTOM OUT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXCEEDING THE TEENS AND
20S. LOWS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY FALL BELLOW ZERO
DEGREES (TO AS LOW AS -3 TO -8 DEGREES) WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
APPROACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (VALUES AS LOW AS -5 TO -
20 DEGREES). WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES WITH DIRECTION EVENTUALLY SETTLING OUT OF THE NORTH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE A LARGE SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
AND WHERE HEAVIER SNOWPACK STILL LINGERS, RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S
(EAST/SNOWPACK) TO THE MID 50S (WEST). CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOWS IN THE
TEENS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH DENSE FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. SNOW IS
LIKELY TO START DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES (LOUP CITY-YORK). THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE (15-50%) FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING LOOKS
TO HAVE A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THURSDAY REMAIN LIGHT, WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW, THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S (EAST) TO THE LOW 40S (WEST).
AS TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DEEPENS, IT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR. A BAND OF SNOW (20-60% POPS) WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY,
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
20S, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS/HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO (FORECAST LOWS -4 TO -8),
RESULTING IN A FRIGID START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL SINK INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT HOW LOW WIND CHILLS ARE ABLE TO GET. AFTER SUNRISE,
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT
CHANCE (15-45%) FOR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH.
SUNDAY ONWARDS...
TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY ONWARDS AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 10S/20S. A PASSING DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE BROADER RIDGING PATTERN LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD ON THE FINER DETAILS.
LOOKING PAST THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
FORECASTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WILL THREATEN
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KEAR (30% CHANCE) AND KGRI (50% CHANCE)
BETWEEN 15Z-23Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY LIFT JUST OUT OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 23-4Z (60-70% CHANCE) WITH LOWER CEILING
DROPPING ACROSS THE NIGHT (MVFR TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 3-9Z).
IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS, SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR KGRI BETWEEN 15-20Z WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 6Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1". WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE OF THINGS, BECOMING VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...STUMP
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