287
FXUS63 KGID 170534
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TUESDAY REMAINS THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S.
- EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
TUESDAY, STARTING OUT THE DAY FROM THE SSW, TURNING MORE
WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR
ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON-8PM TUESDAY.
- A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE PLAINS WILL USHER IN
NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES (CLOSER TO NORMAL) AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AS WELL AS GUSTY NW WINDS.
- FOLLOWING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S, THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL DROP HIGHS FOR THU-FRI BACK INTO THE 30S-40S. A GRADUAL
REBOUND IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH 40S-50S BACK BY
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS MAKING FOR QUITE A NICE START TO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A QUIET PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ZONAL FLOW/BROAD RIDGING DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, WITH
BATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, WE'RE SITTING BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST, WITH OVERALL WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT, AROUND 5-10 MPH...WITH
VARYING DIRECTION. NO BIG SURPRISES AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO,
WITH EVERYONE TOPPING OUT AT LEAST IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH READINGS NEAR 70 ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. EXPECTING
TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, WITH VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT...MID-UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S IN THE SE (NORMAL IS MID
TEENS-NEAR 20). THE THREAT OF NEW RECORD WARM LOWS REMAINS...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD
REMAINING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER SPECIFICS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME/EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, THERE HASN'T
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS. BROAD VIEW, MODELS
CONTINUE SHOW A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND CONTINUED TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA)
WILL BE SWINGING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO
THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING DISTURBANCE,
SFC TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS,
BRINGING MORE SSERLY WINDS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY, TURNING MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF
SFC TROUGH AXIS DURING THE MORNING, THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST
AS THAT BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
REMAINS THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH INCREASED MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS TAPPING
INTO A WARMER AIRMASS...FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID 70S FOR
MOST SPOTS (A FEW SPOTS REACHING CLOSER TO 80 IS NOT TOTALLY
OUT OF THE QUESTION), WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO
BE BROKEN (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). ONE QUESTION WITH
TEMPERATURES LIES WITH CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUD COVER. THE INCREASED MIXING AND PUSH OF
DRIER AIR WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
NOTABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR
TEENS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA.
THE LONE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS IN
THE TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW AROUND 20
PERCENT. MODELS, TO VARYING DEGREES, CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ENERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING, DRIVEN BY THAT
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
THROUGH. THESE LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED CHANCES, WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOCUSING OFF TO OUR NNE.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW THE AREA SITTING
UNDER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING, SET UP BETWEEN TUESDAY'S
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE
WORKING ITS WAY INTO/THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE WIND FORECAST IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN, AS WE'LL BE LOSING THE INFLUENCE OF ONE AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE (KEEPING WINDS WESTERLY) AND GAINING THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT ONE DEEPENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH
WILL BE SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO MORE OF SSERLY DIRECTION.
COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LOW-MID 60S FORECAST.
THURSDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FOLLOWING HOT-BY-FEB-STANDARDS TEMPS ON TUESDAY, A TASTE OF
WINTER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AS SNOW RETURNS TO THE FORECAST.
THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMERGES OUT ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE WED NIGHT-THU AM...TAKING A BIT MORE OF AN
EASTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
STOPPED UP BY TUESDAY'S SYSTEM WHICH MODELS HAVE SITTING NEAR
THE MN/CAN BORDER. COLDER AIR IS USHERED IN BY THE SYSTEM'S
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT, MEANING THE LIKELY P-TYPE IS SNOW. THE
BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WITH THIS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES, NBM POPS ARE PRETTY BROAD, WITH 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCES THROUGH THE TRI-CITIES AND 30 PERCENT CHANCES DOWN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KS. LATEST RUNS OF GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW A TIGHTER GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...SOMETHING TO BE WORKED ON IN THE COMING DAYS. LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS/EC TRENDED THE PRECIP AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TIED TO
THE WEST- EAST ORIENTATED AXIS OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING A TOUCH FURTHER NORTH...BOTH SHOWING
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WITH LESS THAN 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WHETHER YOU GET
SNOW OR NOT, THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL LOW-END CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK FRI-SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THOSE CHANCES
ARE NOT HIGH, AS MODELS SHOW SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WITH WHERE
OTHER DISTURBANCES TRACK AND WHETHER THEY BRING PRECIP AT ALL
TO THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK SUN-MON.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, FOLLOWING THE 70S TUESDAY AND 60S
WEDNESDAY, THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOOKS TO
DROP HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL IN TO
THE 30S-LOW 40S. EXPECTING A REBOUND AS WE GET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BY MONDAY BACK IN THE MID
40S-LOW 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) OF FOG AND/OR
LOW CEILINGS FROM AROUND 12Z TO 17Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING A LITTLE (UP TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS) BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND
15Z TO 18Z. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 21Z
AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z AND WILL STAY WESTERLY
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERN PORTIONS EXPECTED TO SEE THE
OVERALL WORST CONDITIONS.
AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING-
MIDDAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE GRADUALLY PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WILL BE
USHERING IN A SWITCH TO MORE WESTERLY WINDS. OUT OF EITHER
DIRECTION, GUSTS CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING SOME RELIEF, BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE BREEZY
OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, WITH
MID-UPPER 70S FORECAST (NORMAL IS MAINLY LOWER 40S), THANKS TO
INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL INTO A WARMER AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BETTER MIXING AND A DRIER AIRMASS
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...AND COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST
TEMPS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT ANYWHERE FROM
10 TO 25 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OVERALL LOWEST
RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281.
DECISION WAS MADE TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE AREA (THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA) OR TIME (NOON-8PM). IF LOOKING AT STRICT
RFW CRITERIA, FAR SE AREAS ARE MARGINAL, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUD COVER AND RH VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW- MID 20 PERCENT RANGE (CRITERIA IS 20 PERCENT OR
LESS)...BUT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE, FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE ALL 30 OF OUR COUNTIES.
THOUGH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY, DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW, AND AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20 PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER, TRANSITIONING
FROM WESTERLY TO START THE DAY TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY...BUT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE APPROACHED/BROKEN AT VARIOUS POINTS TUESDAY FOR
BOTH THE GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT (RECORDS BACK TO 1896) AND
HASTINGS AIRPORT (RECORDS BACK TO 1908).
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
FEB. 17: 72 IN 2017 | 78
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
FEB. 17: 74 IN 1981 | 77
- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
FEB. 17: 41 IN 1981 | 43
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
FEB. 17: 37 IN 1972 | 43
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...ADP
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