678
FXUS63 KGID 172144
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
344 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE THROUGH 10PM THIS EVENING.
- NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME ISOLATED PRECIPTIATION TO
DEVELOP/PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA, EXITING EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE EAST...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE RAIN OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY, OF MORE
CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL IT HELPS TO DRAG DOWN STRONGER
WINDS...GUSTS CLOSER TO 55 TO 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
- AFTER WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS (RECORD BREAKING) AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY, WINTER MAKES A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAKES A RETURN, CURRENTLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS ACCOMPANYING THIS SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NOT REALLY ANY SURPRISES SO FAR TODAY, A DRY, WARM, GUSTY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA ARE SHOWING LARGER SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EAST...LEAVING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING NE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS, ROUGHLY
ORIENTATED FROM CENTRAL MT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS. THE
ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A COLD FRONT NOT LAGGING TOO
FAR BEHIND. AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES, WINDS REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY, SWITCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THAT INITIAL BOUNDARY. GUSTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB EXCEED 45-50 MPH,
MAINLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, OBS
ALONG OUR WESTERN EDGE HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO JUST A FEW MILES AT
TIMES. HI- RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HRS, AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO, SO DID INSERT THAT MENTION INTO THE FORECAST.
WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING SO DRY/INCREASED MIXING ACROSS THE
AREA, THINK IT'LL BE TOUGH TO GET MORE THAN
SPRINKLES/TRACE...THE BIGGER CONCERN LIES WITH WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY CAN DRAG DOWN STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC, ANY OF THAT
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN GUSTS CLOSER TO
55-60 MPH.
THE TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THOSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS, PRECIPITATION, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND DUST IS NOW
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING CURRENTLY
GOES THROUGH 10PM THIS EVENING, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IMPROVING SOME AS TEMPS COOL...BUT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT, AS FORECAST RH VALUES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S BY
12Z WED. IN ADDITION, WHILE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF
SOME, GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS HAVE PANNED OUT CLOSE TO AS EXPECTED, WITH 3PM
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS HAVE
ALREADY BROKEN THE THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
TODAY (GI RECORD WAS 72, HSI WAS 74). BOTH LOOK TO ALSO SET NEW
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, AS IT'S UNLIKELY THEY'LL
DROP BELOW THIS MORNING'S TEMPS OF 42 AT GI (RECORD WAS 41) AND
44 AT HSI (RECORD WAS 37) BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MID TO LATE WEEK...
LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY, THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION, SET UP BETWEEN TODAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTING OFF TO THE
NE AND THE NEXT ON WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH THE AREA LOSING INFLUENCE
FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO MN AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CO...BRINGING A SWITCH FROM WESTERLY WINDS TO START
THE DAY TO MORE ESERLY WINDS BY EVENING TIME. IT'LL BE COOLER,
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. AIRMASS
REMAINS DRY, ALLOWING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW
20 PERCENT...BUT THE OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS (AFTERNOON GUSTS
CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE) WILL HELP KEEP GREATER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORESO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE
FIRST OF A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL REMIND US
THAT IT'S STILL WINTER...BRINGING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS...SHOWING THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY STALLING OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, FORCING THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF AN EASTERLY
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARPER,
NARROW BAND OF SNOW...CONTINUING TO MAINLY FAVOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEBRASKA. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW
EXTENDS, LIKELY ENDING UP WITH A SHARPER GRADIENT THAN WHAT'S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. CHANCES IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE
REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF I- 80 (BEST CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF
HWY 92), DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE NE/KS STATE
LINE. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...EC
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWING A 60+ PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 1 IN OR MORE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF...GFS ENSEMBLES TOP OUT CLOSER TO 40-50
PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES, THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT, BRINGING GUSTY NW
WINDS. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLAN TO THE NORTH WILL WANT TO KEEP ON
EYE ON HOW THIS TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS. EVEN COLDER HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED, TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 40S IN
THE SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS/RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT THIS ONE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. HIGHS FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAINS IN THE 30S-NEAR 40 RANGE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NOT A LOT OF FOCUS ON THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING A BIGGER DRIVER ONCE
AGAIN...DRYING THE FORECAST OUT FOR SUN-TUE. EXPECTING A GRADUAL
WARM UP, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY BACK IN THE 50S-NEAR 60.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER TODAY CURRENTLY LOOK
TO BE FOCUSED NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. WIND IS THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTS
NEAR/EXCEEDING 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT DIRECTION IS
SSWRLY, BUT WIND WILL BE TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS TAPER OFF A BIT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT
GUSTS NEAR 25-30 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL LLWS
DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS, KEPT THAT MENTION GOING AT
BOTH SITES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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