095
FXUS63 KGID 182354
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. CONSEQUENTLY, STILL SEEING ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.
- CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 92.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS ADVISORY AREA,
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH GUSTING 30-40 MPH.
NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80 (AROUND 1" OR LESS)
- ANOTHER WEAK, QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND 1", OR LESS) FURTHER S TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY PM INTO SATURDAY AM.
- COOL FRIDAY-SUNDAY (MAINLY 30S NEBRASKA, LOWER 40S KANSAS).
PATTERN MODERATES NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER 50S AND 60S BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
REST OF TODAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
UNTIL WE START COOLING OFF AROUND SUNSET. AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THE RH VALUES AT MOST LOCATIONS WERE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT,
WHICH MAY ALLOW ANY SPARKS TO EASILY TURN INTO FIRES. THANKFULLY
THE WIND IS MUCH LIGHTER TODAY AND ONLY 10-20 MPH. CONSEQUENTLY,
WE DO NOT NEED ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY.
TONIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, MAINLY AFTER 6 PM. THIS WILL
TURN THE WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. WE WILL HAVE
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL NIGHT LONG AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MID-
DAY ON THURSDAY AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
AGAIN MOST OF THE SNOW >1-2" IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-80 AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 92 (2-5"). THINGS COULD STILL
SHIFT A BIT, BUT RIGHT NOW AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LOOK LIKE ONLY A TRACE TO AROUND 1". LITTLE TO NO SNOW
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATING 5" AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR NORTH
LEANS CLOSER TO THE HIGHEST 10% AMOUNTS (7-8"). THE LOWER END,
LOWEST 10% ENSEMBLE AMOUNTS IN THE ORD AREA ARE ONLY AROUND 1".
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THESE HIGH END AMOUNTS ARE OVERDOING IT
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THAT THE MORE ACCURATE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHERN HIGHER END AMOUNTS WILL BE (3-5"). THEREFORE, WENT WITH
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WINTER STORM WARNING.
ALTHOUGH 3-5" OF SNOW NORTH OF HWY 92 ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR SOME PRETTY DIFFICULT TRAVEL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
TIMING...
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW AT DAYBREAK. THEN WE WILL
SEE SNOW BEGINNING IN MOST NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY...
THERE COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF 5-7" EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE
GENERAL 3-5 BAND. IF THIS HAPPENS WE MANY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW
COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
THIS WOULD BE OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES AROUND THE TOWNS OF
ORD AND GREELEY.
FRIDAY...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, BUT THIS ONE APPEARS LIGHTER,
GENERALLY FLURRIES UP TO 1", MAINLY FOCUSED ON FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. COLD WEATHER PERSISTS, MAINLY IN THE 30S, BUT
THERE ARE ALSO MODELS THAT KEEP US COOLER, HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
IN THE 20S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
COOL AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST IS AT THE
UPPER END OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST WITH MORE POTENTIAL THAT WE
COULD END UP COLDER, FOR EXAMPLE, HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE 20S
IF THE COLDER MODELS ARE CORRECT.
NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY COULD STILL BE COOL, BUT A TRANSITION DAY WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN NICE WEATHER RETURNING BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO
THE 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN 60S. WE WILL MOST LIKELY DRY OUT AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SNOW AND POTENTIALLY BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR TO LOW END MVFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 18Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY, BLOWING BETWEEN 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30-35MPH EXPECTED.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-046>049.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...STUMP
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