677
FXUS63 KGID 191809
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK
TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING (GRADUALLY ENDING WEST-TO-EAST THIS EVENING)
- A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR OUR 7 NEBRASKA
COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92, WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5-7"
ARE MOST FAVORED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR COUNTIES ALONG I-80 WHERE TOTALS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
1-3" RANGE.
- ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-80
DOWN INTO KS. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (DUSTING-1") AS
WILL WINDS (NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH).
- MAINLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- QUICK UPDATE REGARDING WINTER WEATHER "HEADLINES":
- SEE UPCOMING "MAIN" AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS...BUT FOR NOW:
BASED ON OUR MD-MORNING FORECAST UPDATE SLIGHTLY INCREASING
SNOW AMOUNTS TO GET AT LEAST LOCALIZED 5" TOTALS INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SHERMAN/HOWARD/MERRICK/POLK COUNTIES
(SPOTTY 6" INTO FAR NORTHERN SHERMAN/HOWARD), IT WAS DECIDED TO
"UPGRADE" THE AFOREMENTIONED 4 COUNTIES FROM ADVISORY TO WINTER
STORM WARNING (ESPECIALLY GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH).
- NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIGURATION AT
THIS TIME. IN HINDSIGHT (ALWAYS 20/20, RIGHT?), WE PROBABLY
SHOULD HAVE SEGMENTED OUR OFFICIAL ADVISORY/WARNING "START
TIMES" TO DELAY THE START FOR ESPECIALLY COUNTIES ALONG/EAST
OF HWY 281, WHICH WERE NEVER EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH (IF ANY)
SNOW BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY GET
GOING IN ALL COUNTIES UNDER AN ADVISORY/WARNING AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY DEPARTING FROM WEST-TO-EAST
THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AS MENTIONED IN THE KEY MESSAGES...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES LATE LAST EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
MODEL TRENDS. STILL SOME VERY FINE-SCALE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE
OVERALL SYSTEM WILL BE COMPACT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE -
WHICH MAKES SMALL CHANGES IN TRACK MORE NOTICEABLE. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL MESSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM 24
HOURS AGO:
- SNOW INCREASES THIS MORNING, PEAKS AFTERNOON-EVENING, DECREASES
OVERNIGHT
- MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATION ALONG/N OF I-80, HEAVIEST ALONG/N OF
HWY 92 WHERE 4-6" IS MOST LIKELY AND LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
- ALL AREAS EXPERIENCE GUSTY N WINDS AROUND 30-40 MPH THAT WILL
LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS.
IN TERMS OF THE FINER SCALE DETAILS...WOULD NOT AT ALL BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME THUNDERSNOW, OR AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, UNDER/WITHIN THE MAIN W-E BAND THAT SETS
UP IN OUR NORTH LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SEVERAL FACTORS IN SUPPORT OF SOME, ALBEIT BRIEF AND LOCALIZED,
HEAVY SNOW RATES OF ~1"/HR: DEEP LIFT CO-LOCATED WITH A
RELATIVELY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS, AND NON-ZERO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND/OR
CSI. ALSO SOME HINTS OF A DECENT ISO-THERMAL LAYER BENEATH THE
DGZ DOWN TO THE SFC IN OUR FAR NE ZONES. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW RATES - COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY GUSTS 30-40 MPH,
COULD CREATE SOME NASTY TRAVEL CONDITIONS (ESP. BY THIS SEASON'S
WINTER STANDARDS), ESP. FROM AROUND ORD TO FULLERTON. CERTAINLY
WOULD EXPECT SOME SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS
AROUND THE TIME SCHOOL/WORK LETS OUT AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH, PROBABLY GOING TO BE MORE "OFF AND ON"/SHOWERY
NATURE TO START, THEN A MORE BROAD/STEADY SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STILL EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
QUICKLY TAPER OFF S OF I-80. SNOW SHOULD WRAP UP AROUND 10PM TO
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES
THE HEAVIER SNOW A LITTLE FURTHER S CLOSER TO I-80...BUT PREFER
TO STICK WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT EUROPEAN SUITE OF GUIDANCE
(DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE) SINCE IT'S BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT.
NEXT ITEM TO NOTE WILL BE CHANCE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AM. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A VERY MINOR EVENT IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS AND OVERALL IMPACTS - AS
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A DUSTING TO 1" AND ONLY LIGHT
WINDS. AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH REMAIN MOST FAVORED FOR
THIS ROUND.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AT THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FROM LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK - PERHAPS EVEN WIDESPREAD 60S AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
REST OF TODAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
UNTIL WE START COOLING OFF AROUND SUNSET. AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THE RH VALUES AT MOST LOCATIONS WERE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT,
WHICH MAY ALLOW ANY SPARKS TO EASILY TURN INTO FIRES. THANKFULLY
THE WIND IS MUCH LIGHTER TODAY AND ONLY 10-20 MPH. CONSEQUENTLY,
WE DO NOT NEED ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY.
TONIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, MAINLY AFTER 6 PM. THIS WILL
TURN THE WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. WE WILL HAVE
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL NIGHT LONG AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MID-
DAY ON THURSDAY AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
AGAIN MOST OF THE SNOW >1-2" IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-80 AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 92 (2-5"). THINGS COULD STILL
SHIFT A BIT, BUT RIGHT NOW AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LOOK LIKE ONLY A TRACE TO AROUND 1". LITTLE TO NO SNOW
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATING 5" AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR NORTH
LEANS CLOSER TO THE HIGHEST 10% AMOUNTS (7-8"). THE LOWER END,
LOWEST 10% ENSEMBLE AMOUNTS IN THE ORD AREA ARE ONLY AROUND 1".
EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THESE HIGH END AMOUNTS ARE OVERDOING IT
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THAT THE MORE ACCURATE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHERN HIGHER END AMOUNTS WILL BE (3-5"). THEREFORE, WENT WITH
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WINTER STORM WARNING.
ALTHOUGH 3-5" OF SNOW NORTH OF HWY 92 ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR SOME PRETTY DIFFICULT TRAVEL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
TIMING...
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW AT DAYBREAK. THEN WE WILL
SEE SNOW BEGINNING IN MOST NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY...
THERE COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF 5-7" EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE
GENERAL 3-5 BAND. IF THIS HAPPENS WE MANY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW
COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
THIS WOULD BE OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES AROUND THE TOWNS OF
ORD AND GREELEY.
FRIDAY...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, BUT THIS ONE APPEARS LIGHTER,
GENERALLY FLURRIES UP TO 1", MAINLY FOCUSED ON FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. COLD WEATHER PERSISTS, MAINLY IN THE 30S, BUT
THERE ARE ALSO MODELS THAT KEEP US COOLER, HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
IN THE 20S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
COOL AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST IS AT THE
UPPER END OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST WITH MORE POTENTIAL THAT WE
COULD END UP COLDER, FOR EXAMPLE, HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE 20S
IF THE COLDER MODELS ARE CORRECT.
NEXT WEEK...
MONDAY COULD STILL BE COOL, BUT A TRANSITION DAY WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN NICE WEATHER RETURNING BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS BRING HIGHS BACK UP INTO
THE 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN 60S. WE WILL MOST LIKELY DRY OUT AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
KGRI/KEAR WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A FAIRLY POTENT
WINTER STORM THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS 20+ MILES FARTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW AND PREVAILING MVFR CEILING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING, BEFORE SNOW ENDS AND VFR RETURNS. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-3" (HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THIS RANGE SLIGHTLY FAVORING KGRI VS. KEAR).
THE SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE MODERATELY-STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS, ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY THESE FIRST 2-4 HOURS WHEN THEY
WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST (SUSTAINED 20-25KT/GUSTS 30-35KT).
HOWEVER, THESE SPEEDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DOWN TO AROUND
10KT-OR-LESS BY AROUND 06Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ060>064.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH/THIES
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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