287
FXUS63 KGID 230526
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1126 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY, AND A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN, BUT
THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS LOW (10% OR LESS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST. NORTHERN AREAS WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK COULD EVEN SEE
SUBZERO AIR TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA
(CAMBRIDGE, PHILLIPSBURG, STOCKTON/PLAINVILLE) COULD EVEN MAKE A
RUN AT 50 DEGREES!
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. BUT THE FORECAST HAS
ACTUALLY TRENDED A BIT COOLER THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
CLEARING SKIES AND A MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TIMING, AND NOW HIGHLIGHT LIGHT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A
FEW SNOWFLAKES, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY (10% CHANCE OR
LESS).
AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DEPARTS, THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY "COOLER," BUT HIGHS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY THEN BOUNCES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH THIS WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MOST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, BUT AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
TO SEE AT LEAST NEAR- CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ON WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY (30 TO 50% CHANCE).
THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST A COUPLE
BELOW-NORMAL DAYS AS WE BEGIN THE MONTH OF MARCH. ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE) NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(MARCH 1-2ND).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES SHOULD
ALSO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
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