040
FXUS63 KGID 231802
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1202 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (UP TO A
55% TO 60% CHANCE). THERE IS AROUND A 10% TO 20% CHANCE OF
SNOW BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- THERE ARE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
- THERE IS AROUND A 20% TO 30% CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
20S TO LOW 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (NOW UP TO AROUND 55% TO 60% ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA). THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW (AROUND 10% TO 20%
CHANCE) DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. IF SNOW OCCURS, LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL
EXPECTED THIS WEEK BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR
FRIDAY. SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE (AROUND A 20% TO 30% CHANCE) SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST. NORTHERN AREAS WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK COULD EVEN SEE
SUBZERO AIR TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA
(CAMBRIDGE, PHILLIPSBURG, STOCKTON/PLAINVILLE) COULD EVEN MAKE A
RUN AT 50 DEGREES!
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. BUT THE FORECAST HAS
ACTUALLY TRENDED A BIT COOLER THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
CLEARING SKIES AND A MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TIMING, AND NOW HIGHLIGHT LIGHT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A
FEW SNOWFLAKES, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY (10% CHANCE OR
LESS).
AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DEPARTS, THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY "COOLER," BUT HIGHS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S...A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY THEN BOUNCES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH THIS WEEK WILL
RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MOST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, BUT AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
TO SEE AT LEAST NEAR- CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ON WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY (30 TO 50% CHANCE).
THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST A COUPLE
BELOW-NORMAL DAYS AS WE BEGIN THE MONTH OF MARCH. ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE) NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(MARCH 1-2ND).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
EXTREMELY-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT,
WITH ONLY GRADUALLY-INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
(MAINLY AT-OR-ABOVE 15K FT. AGL). THAT LEAVES SOMEWHAT-BREEZY
WINDS (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALSO ALOFT IN THE FORM OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR/LLWS) AS THE PRIMARY ISSUE.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH SOMEWHAT-BREEZY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO GENERALLY SUSTAINED AROUND 15KT/GUSTS
20-25KT). SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT,
BUT REMAIN STEADY, AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY
WITH TIME. FINALLY, A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING AS GUSTS PICK BACK
UP TO AROUND 20KT.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY MEETING "TECHNICAL" TAF-INCLUSION
CRITERIA THE ENTIRE TIME (MEANING 30+KT OF SHEAR MAGNITUDE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE MAIN SHEAR LAYER), FELT LLWS WAS
"STRONG ENOUGH" TO INCLUDE GROUPS FROM 03-15Z...INITIALLY OUT OF
MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 03-09Z...THEN MORE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
09-15Z. AGAIN, THIS IS NOT A "HIGH END" LLWS SETUP...BUT WITH
SHEAR MAGNITUDE COMMONLY 25-30KT FOR THAT LONG OF A TIME
PERIOD...FELT TAF INCLUSION IS WARRANTED.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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