235
FXUS63 KGID 232328
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A BIGGER WARM-UP STARTS TUESDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE
HIGHS 50S/60S PREVAILING TUES-FRI (OVERALL-WARMEST FRIDAY MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA), BEFORE OUR NEXT LARGER-SCALE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AND KNOCKS US BACK INTO THE 30S/40S
FOR A FEW DAYS (OVERALL-COLDEST SUNDAY).
- ELEVATED-TO-NEAR-CRITICIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY-
FRIDAY: ALTHOUGH (AT LEAST FOR NOW) NO OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE ELEVATED/NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY-FRIDAY AFTERNOONS (WHEREVER 20+ MPH GUSTS COINCIDE
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY 25% OR LOWER).
- AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE?) WILL RACE EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (MAINLY
AFTER 3 PM), BRINGING AT LEAST SPOTTY RAINFALL MAINLY UNDER
0.10" TO VARIOUS SPOTS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY IN FORECAST,
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY WEAK (BUT NON-ZERO) INSTABILITY.
- SATURDAY EVENING-MONDAY, OUR FORECAST IS CURRENTLY "LITTERED"
WITH VARIOUS LOW-END/LOW- CONFIDENCE (20-30%) CHANCES FOR
PRIMARILY SNOW. THAT BEING SAID, LATEST ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REALLY DOWNPLAY THIS SNOW POTENTIAL,
KEEPING US MOSTLY PRECIP-FREE AND/OR WITH LITTLE- IF-ANY
ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
COMMENTS:
- WHEN COMPARING WITH OUR PREVIOUS 7-DAY FORECAST "PACKAGE"
(ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING), OVERALL THINGS STAYED PRETTY
CONSISTENT, INCLUDING: 1) VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
APPRECIABLE WARM-UP TUES-FRI...2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SOME COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON-EVENING..3) THE
SNOW CHANCES SAT EVENING-MONDAY REMAIN VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE-
IN-OCCURRENCE.
- PROBABLY THE SINGLE-BIGGEST FORECAST CHANGE WAS HIGH TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY COMING DOWN A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES (MORE OF OUR CWA
ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S).
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR TUES-FRI AFTERNOONS
ARE CURRENTLY THE ONLY CONTENT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...JUST INTRODUCED THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
FORECAST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR GETTING
"WORSE" AS THEY GET CLOSER IN TIME (DUE TO A COMBO OF EXPECTED
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AND/OR RH DROPPING LOWER), AT LEAST FOR
NOW OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL CONDITIONS (OVERLAP OF GUSTS 25+ MPH/RH
AT- OR-BELOW 20%) APPEARS RELATIVELY UNLIKELY. THAT BEING
SAID, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HAVE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK) AND FRIDAY (CURRENTLY PROJECTED
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LOWEST RH) APPEAR TO
BE MOST WORTH WATCHING.
- QUICK PEEK BEYOND OUR 7-DAY (BEYOND MARCH 2): LATEST ECMWF
ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK, LEANING FAIRLY STRONGLY TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND WITH A LESS-CONFIDENT/SLIGHTER LEAN TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIP. LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S/60S BEYOND OUR BRIEF COLDER SPELL
SATURDAY-MONDAY.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH MON. MARCH 2):
- CURRENT/TODAY'S WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 2 PM:
AS EXPECTED, TODAY IS PLAYING OUT AS THE "TRANSITION DAY"
TEMPERATURE-WISE...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
NOT NEARLY AS MILD AS TOMORROW. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
AIMED MAINLY MAINLY MID-UPPER 30S NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA...TO
40S FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF (POSSIBLY EVEN TOUCHING 50)
MAINLY IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST (ROOKS/FURNAS COUNTIES). A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BATCH OF PASSING HIGH CIRRUS HAS LIKELY
HINDERED WARMING SOMEWHAT, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DEPARTING OFF
TO THE EAST/THINNING OUT, PAVING THE WAY FOR A LATE-AFTERNOON
OFFICIAL HIGH TEMP. OTHERWISE, AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN FEATURE
THIS AFTERNOON IS INCREASINGLY-BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, RAMPING
UP IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE/RIDGE AXIS (CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH IA/NORTH MO)
AND A HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT IS
SUSTAINED SPEEDS/GUSTS COMMONLY 10-20 MPH/15-20 MPH
(RESPECTIVELY)...OVERALL STRONGEST IN OUR WESTERN CWA AND
WEAKEST IN OUR EAST).
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM BROAD
NORTH-NORTHESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD OUR CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION...DIRECTED BETWEEN A PROMINENT EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
(HIGHLIGHTED BY THE BIG NOR'EASTERN SLAMMING THE NORTHEAST
COASTAL CITIES), AND A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
WEST OF MEXICO UP TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT):
IT WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT ANOTHER BATCH(ES) OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, PROMOTING GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. REALLY THE BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT IS THAT
LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD UP A GOOD 15-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING, WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FEATURING STEADY TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY-RISING TEMPS FOLLOWING THE INITIAL EARLY-EVENING
FALL. MORE SPECIFICALLY, LOWS ARE AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS, WITH A FEW SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH NOT DROPPING UNDER 30.
THIS IS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WARM-FRONT, MARKED BY BREEZES
STARTING TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE EVENING, AND
EVENTUALLY MORE "TRUE" WESTERLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-SUNRISE (SPEEDS
MAINLY 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS).
- TUESDAY DAYTIME (MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY):
BY FAR THE MAIN STORY IS THE BIGGER WARM-UP (HIGHS 20+ DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY). THE ONE MAIN CAVEAT TO GETTING AS WARM AS
WE'RE AIMING FOR WILL BE WHAT LOOKS TO BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS (SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL). HOWEVER, THE
PRESENCE OF A MUCH WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND ALSO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN "DRIVERS" OF THE WARM-UP.
KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MOST OF OUR NORTHERN
HALF MAINLY MID-UPPER 50S/MOST OF OUR SOUTHERN HALF LOW-MID 60S
(AND EVEN REACHING 70 MAINLY FAR SW IN ROOKS COUNTY). AS FOR
WINDS, THEY LOOK TO BE A BIT BREEZY, BUT NOT OVERLY-STRONG
(MAINLY SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH/GUSTS 20-25 MPH), INITIALLY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST BUT TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEEDS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY 11AM-3PM...PRIMARILY AFFECTING
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE KS BORDER.
- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
OUR FORECAST REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE ARE AT LEAST
"HINTS" (ESPECIALLY IN HRRR MODEL) THAT SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP HERE OR THERE...MAINLY
WITHIN 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE KS BORDER. OTHERWISE, DESPITE
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY
AT/UNDER 5 MPH), TEMPS SHOULD NOT TUMBLE TOO FAR GIVEN CONTINUED
PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUDS (LOWS AIMED MID-UPPER 20S MOST OF OUR
CWA).
- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT (QUICK HIT OF RAIN SHOWERS):
WHILE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY, A FAIRLY
STRONG-BUT-FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT.
WITH THIS TIME FRAME NOW GETTING WITHIN RANGE OF HIGHER-RES
MODELS (SUCH AS NAMNEST), IT'S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED (AND POSSIBLY NUMEROUS) RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RACE ACROSS OUR MUCH OF OUR CWA FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4/5 PM AND MIDNIGHT. NOT
EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE SHOWERS, BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD PICK
UP A QUICK 0.05-0.10" OF RAIN (LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER). A
SPOTTY WEAK THUNDERSTORM PROBABLY CANNOT EVEN BE RULED OUT GIVEN
PERHAPS 100+ J/KG OF CAPE/INSTABILITY, BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
FORMAL FORECAST INCLUSION FOR NOW. EVEN WITHOUT THUNDER, THESE
SHOWERS BEAR WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DRAGGING DOWN SOME
"SNEAKY" GUSTY WINDS OF 40+MPH. HOWEVER, EVEN BEFORE ANY WEAK
CONVECTION DEVELOPS, IT WILL ALREADY BE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH/GUSTS 25+ MPH
AT LEAST SOME AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED OVERALL-SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...UPPER 50S-MID 60S MOST PLACES...BUT RANGING FROM LOW-
MID 50S FAR NORTHEAST...TO UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
ANY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD VACATE OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, LEAVING THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS DRY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGREED EITHER
SIDE OF 30 DEGREES.
- THURSDAY-FRIDAY (QUIET AND MILD):
UNDER BROAD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THIS APPEARS TO BE A
HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY STRETCH. THESE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY
(BUT NOT OVERLY-WINDY) AND SEASONABLY-MILD DAYS, WITH HIGHS
AIMED NEAR-60 ON THURSDAY AND MID-UPPPER 60S ON FRIDAY.
- SATURDAY-MONDAY (CHILLIER WITH VERY "IFFY" SNOW CHANCES):
FOR BEING 5+ DAYS OUT, LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A COLD FRONT (MARKED BY BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS) ACROSS OUR CWA ON SATURDAY, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
EASTERLY SUNDAY AND SOUTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY (AT LEAST PER ECMWF).
HIGH TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CHECK IN 20-25 DEGREES
COLDER ON SATURDAY VERSUS FRIDAY (MAINLY 40S NEBRASKA/LOW 50S
KANSAS), AND THEN SUNDAY OVERALL-COLDEST WITH HIGHS MAINLY 30S
EXCEPT LOW 40S SOUTHWEST. VERY PRELIMINARILY, MONDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK UP INTO THE 40S CWA-WIDE. CERTAINLY OF
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE ARE THE SNOW CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH FORTUNATELY (AND FOR GOOD REASON) ARE RUNNING NO
HIGHER THAN 20-30% AT THIS TIME. THERE IS CERTAINLY PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW LATEST MODELS GIVE US
LITTLE-TO-NOTHING THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AHEAD OF IT.
ALOFT, EXPECT MODEST LLWS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, WITH ADDITIONAL LLWS FROM THE
WEST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY
BEHIND THE ANTICIPATED WARM FRONT. ANY LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MID-MORNING TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20KT+ ANTICIPATED AFTER
24/15Z. CLOUD COVER WISE...EXPECT LOTS OF CIRRUS ON SATELLITE
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
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