217
FXUS63 KGID 250000
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY COMING ON FRIDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY W/SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA - THOUGH, SIMILAR TO TODAY, WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR "SNEAKY" CRITICAL CONDITIONS FAR W/SW FOR WED AFTN.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (20-50% CHANCE) WED AFTN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH, OR LESS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, AND STILL
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
(20-40%) OFF AND ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND VOID OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
FAST WNW/NW MID-UPPER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
WITH A STEADY STREAM OF COPIOUS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
STREAMING THROUGH. DESPITE THIS, AIR TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY
INTO THE 50S-60S, THOUGH THE "FEELS LIKE" IS DEFINITELY LOWER
DUE TO BRISK WIND. HAD A BIT MORE OVERLAP OF THE WARMTH AND WIND
THAT W/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA REACHED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE AN ISSUE ANYMORE TODAY
GIVEN SOME LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT AND
GENERALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS
TONIGHT - WITH ANY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THICK MID-HIGH CLOUDS BEING REPRESENTATIVE OF VIRGA THANKS TO
AFOREMENTIONED DRY LOW LEVELS.
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERAL MILD WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEK, LOCKED IN SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENT TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN MUCH COOLER 20S-40S TO THE N/NE AND MUCH WARMER 60S-70S
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF E CO AND W KS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST CHANCES
(UP TO 40-50% PEAK CHANCES) FOR SCATTERED PRECIP BEGINNING WED
AFTN AND PERSISTING INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO BE
LIQUID, THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MINOR WET SNOW
OVER THE FAR N/NE INITIALLY. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER - AS EVIDENT BY INCLUSION OF GENERAL THUNDER IN SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. FELT THIS WAS STILL TOO MINOR TO FORCE INCLUSION
IN THE BUILDER AS MOST WILL NOT SEE IT. UNFORTUNATELY, AS WE
REALLY NEED THE MOISTURE, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT AT ONLY AROUND TENTH OF AN INCH, OR LESS.
FORECAST REMAINS DRY OTHERWISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
A RELATIVELY NARROW AND/OR BRIEF WINDOW FOR TANKING RHS AMIDST
MODERATELY BREEZY AND VEERING SW TO WNW WINDS. THIS WOULD BE
MAINLY W OF HWY 183 AND PARTICULARLY CLOSE IN GOSPER AND FURNAS
COUNTIES, MAINLY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION IN HWO AND FOREGO FORMAL HEADLINES, FOR NOW. WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WILL BE FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S, BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE QUITE WEAK. SO A FANTASTIC END
TO THE LAST FULL WORK WEEK IN FEBRUARY AND A SOLID OPPORTUNITY
TO ENJOY SOME NICE WEATHER.
CONDITIONS TURN MUCH COOLER (THOUGH REALLY JUST BACK DOWN TO
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL HINT AT SOME OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL (OFF AND ON CHANCES AROUND 20-40%), POSSIBLY OF THE
WINTRY AND/OR MIX VARIETY, OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THAT SAID, ENSEMBLES KEEP AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THINGS, AND NOTHING AT THIS TIME SCREAMS SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND/OR IMPACTS. IF THERE ARE TO BE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS, LATEST EPS FAVORS MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE MOST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FINAL FEW HOURS. EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WED...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOWER WITH TIME WED, BUT CURRENTLY HAVE STAYING VFR.
CONFIDENCE IN THOSE CEILINGS IS LOWER IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD WHEN THOSE RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN. NNE WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING BECOME MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...THEN TURN MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BECOMING WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE
END OF THIS PERIOD. SPEEDS CURRENTLY TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH
DURING THE DAY ON WED.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ADP
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